Friedman column--Trump's Going to Get Re-Elected, Isn't He?
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Anonymous
Yeah, that’s why I think it a lose-lose. You risk alienating a segment of voters who don’t seem to realize how far fetched this all is. It is not going to get through Congress right now. I mean whatever, I’d still rather have lawmakers spinning their wheels for four years than the present situation, but I’d prefer someone with more modest proposals that actually have a chance of getting enacted while simultaneously being more appealing to a broader electorate. |
Anonymous
And I'm sure if that possibility occurs, you'll blame Republicans (oh, and "Russians") rather than the EC - which is part of the Constitution. You people are too much. |
Anonymous
That's precisely my point, though. YOU think Republicans are being utterly repellent, and I agree. But based on the demographics of this site (maybe I'm wrong, and if I am, I'm sorry), I'm going to make the assumption that you have at least a college degree, if not a graduate degree, and live somewhere in the DC metro area, which is a diverse area that skews very liberal. These (the above profile) are the kinds of voters to whom Trump is so repellent that they would vote for any D in 2020, perfect or not. I myself am among them. But while Trump's comments/behavior are horrible, but I don't think they're necessarily a dealbreaker to the white blue-collar voters who are going to make the key differences in the important EC states that Trump flipped and won in 2016. Racist comments don't affect your average middle-class white swing voter in any tangible way, so they are not going to vote for any Democrat on the grounds that they're a better/less racist/less abhorrent person than Trump. I have strong doubts about the proposition that minority voters who sat out 2016 are going to come out in huge numbers to vote for anyone-but-Trump. I think minority turnout will be up a little bit, but not a huge amount, from 2016. Which means that white swing voters are still going to be the crucial constituency. And white swing voters are unlikely to be directly negatively impacted by Trump's policies, so they won't turn out in huge numbers to vote AGAINST him. So they will still have to actively vote FOR the Democratic candidate, and the way to get them to do that is by being moderate to be palatable. Otherwise, even if they refuse to actively vote for Trump, they just won't vote. And that's how he wins 2020. |
Anonymous
ah.. but promises made during the election are almost never kept, but the fact that the candidate says this is what they believe is good enough. Trump promised better for healthcare for all, and many people bought into that. There were folks who voted for him specifically because of that promise, and oh of course, the promise to have Mx build the wall. |
Anonymous
It's not sustainable. The good docs will open boutique shops. Pay up front! |
Anonymous
Dems really need someone who is more moderate. Liberals on the coast will vote for a moderate liberal over Trump, no doubt. But it's the white midwest vote that is the swing vote, and agree, they are not as invested in racist issues as minorities. Healthcare and economy is where it's at. But, I do think that many of these folks are amenable to medicare for all. Remember this townhall by Sanders in PA, hosted by Fox News... they were shocked that so many people were for medicare for all. And that is why so many of these Dems are pushing medicare for all.. because folks in these swing states with diverse views want it. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/sanders-fox-news/587239/
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Anonymous
Why can't it be sustainable? If you open up medicare, the pool gets bigger. Most people won't get it for free. You pay on a sliding scale, as they do today. My parents are low income, but they still pay for medicare. Medicare taxes on paychecks can also be raised a tiny bit to help sustain it. It's what Reagan did back in 1983. Yes, folks, a R raised taxes to help pay for government sponsored healthcare. Imagine that. |
Anonymous
I think Medicare for All is a good idea. But I think it should be structured as a public option, not as a required opt-in system, because many people are OK or happy with their private insurance. Many of those same town hall voters would probably reconsider if they were told "the government" was forcibly kicking them off of their private insurance for "socialized healthcare," which is 100% the way Republicans will characterize it as an election issue. Offering a public option that is actually cost-efficient and well-run will get people to voluntarily choose it and like it. |
Anonymous
Medicare pays a fraction of what the charges really are. Private insurance currently pays a much greater percentage. A few things will happen with Medicare for all. 1. People are going to stop going into medicine. It won't be worth it considering the cost of the education. 2. Doctors will stop or avoid taking Medicare. Right now, about 94% of doctors take Medicare patients - that willl likely become less. This assumes that people will still have private insurance, which is debatable under the Medicare for All plans. 3. Doctors will become "boutique." My former GP had such a practice. You paid an annual fee ($1500 or more) for the luxury of being his patient. He limited the number of patients he took and none were Medicare. He was an excellent doctor, so my family paid. Each adult is charged the annual fee. Kids were covered under that plan. 4. People will start paying in cash and probably get reduced charges for services. |
Anonymous
Poor little snowflake- |
Anonymous
LOL! The snowflakes are the MAGA trash yelling "send her back" because they can't abide strong Democratic women. |
Anonymous
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Just f*cking nominate Biden, you idiots.
It’s really that simple unless you want a racist narcissist to be out of control as a president in his second term with no fear of trying to be re-elected. |
Anonymous
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Thoughts from a center-right voter who would like to vote for a Democrat but will probably just end up writing someone in again:
1. Harris isn’t as moderate as this thread suggests. She literally proposed abolishing private insurance. I was skeptical of but largely okay with Obamacare. This next move scares me. 2. Mayor Pete is a joke. If Republicans nominated a staunch conservative mayor of, say, Huntsville, the commentariat would fairly be asking if this is a further sign of a party crack-up. He shouldn’t be in this convo. 3. I like Warren personally, but she’s way too liberal. If I were a Dem, though, I’d want to see her nominated. Clearly smart and probably very capable. 4. Biden wouldn’t be anywhere near this conversation if not for folks’ rosy views of Obama. 5. The debates seemed like raw meat for the base. It was really unsettling to me. 6. Trump will lose virtually regardless. 2016 was a fluke and no one wants to be caught off guard by his victory again. But flukes are sometimes flukes, and that’s what 2016 was. 7. Please don’t screw this up and, in particular, please don’t pick Bernie. |
Anonymous
^ well you just dumped on all their front runners, so if none of them can beat Trump then who do you think can? |
Anonymous
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Everything had to break Trump’s way for him to win in 2016. Everything has to break his way again to win in 2020 - I just don’t know how likely that is. I read the article in the NYT that someone mentioned just upthread and it was frightening as a person who thinks Trump and his cult are horrible, but it was also a little far-fetched ... plus the election is a million miles away, in political terms, and so much can change between now and then.
The Republican base is relatively steady in terms of voting numbers. The Democrats need to turn out their own voters. They don’t need to siphon votes from the R base (honestly not even possible, even the Never Trumpers vote Libertarian or write-in or just don’t vote for President) and the number of “swing voters” isn’t all that large. The Clinton campaign was bad at turning out the D base in key swing states and relied on bad polling data. Hopefully the 2020 nominee won’t make the same mistakes. |