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Reply to "Friedman column--Trump's Going to Get Re-Elected, Isn't He?"
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[quote=Anonymous]Everything had to break Trump’s way for him to win in 2016. Everything has to break his way again to win in 2020 - I just don’t know how likely that is. I read the article in the NYT that someone mentioned just upthread and it was frightening as a person who thinks Trump and his cult are horrible, but it was also a little far-fetched ... plus the election is a million miles away, in political terms, and so much can change between now and then. The Republican base is relatively steady in terms of voting numbers. The Democrats need to turn out their own voters. They don’t need to siphon votes from the R base (honestly not even possible, even the Never Trumpers vote Libertarian or write-in or just don’t vote for President) and the number of “swing voters” isn’t all that large. The Clinton campaign was bad at turning out the D base in key swing states and relied on bad polling data. Hopefully the 2020 nominee won’t make the same mistakes. [/quote]
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