Reply to Friedman column--Trump's Going to Get Re-Elected, Isn't He?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]+1. To the above. The Dems are running like the winner is going to be chosen by popular vote. It’s baffling to me.[/quote]

The Republicans are running like you're going to anoint the winner at a KKK rally. It's baffling to me.
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It shouldn’t be. There are a lot of (1) racists and (2) people who are extremely opposed to illegal immigration and (3) people who will accept anything from Trump as long as he’s for tax cutting and nominates conservative judges. And these people aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, so it’s not a bad strategy (obviously, as Trump won the presidency).

But the Democrats’ strategy truly is baffling. Most of them are advocating for positions far to the left of where most of the country, and the Obama administration is/was. When the states they have to win are (as always) swing states that are not bastions of coastal liberalism. Issues like racial justice, healthcare and other protections for undocumented immigrants, taking away private health insurance, etc. are not going to be winners there. They just aren’t. The 2020 candidates need to recognize this and change their messaging accordingly, but most of them aren’t grasping this. It’s truly baffling.[/quote]

I think it's super baffling that Republicans think they can be as utterly repellent as they are being, right out in the open, and it won't have consequences!

Your default seems to be that Republicans win unless perfect Democrats come to challenge them. I do not subscribe to that default. I think Republicans are repellent and going out of their way to repel moderates, white suburban women, black voters, and anyone else beyond the Trumpiest of Trumpzis.

Do I feel confident that Trump will lose? F*ck no! 2016 blindsided me and I feel like I've still got PTSD. Do I feel more confident every time I see Trump being a disgraceful fool, and his Republican buddies falling in line? Yes, I sure do.[/quote]

That's precisely my point, though. YOU think Republicans are being utterly repellent, and I agree. But based on the demographics of this site (maybe I'm wrong, and if I am, I'm sorry), I'm going to make the assumption that you have at least a college degree, if not a graduate degree, and live somewhere in the DC metro area, which is a diverse area that skews very liberal. These (the above profile) are the kinds of voters to whom Trump is so repellent that they would vote for any D in 2020, perfect or not. I myself am among them. But while Trump's comments/behavior are horrible, but I don't think they're necessarily a dealbreaker to the white blue-collar voters who are going to make the key differences in the important EC states that Trump flipped and won in 2016. Racist comments don't affect your average middle-class white swing voter in any tangible way, so they are not going to vote for any Democrat on the grounds that they're a better/less racist/less abhorrent person than Trump.

I have strong doubts about the proposition that minority voters who sat out 2016 are going to come out in huge numbers to vote for anyone-but-Trump. I think minority turnout will be up a little bit, but not a huge amount, from 2016. Which means that white swing voters are still going to be the crucial constituency. And white swing voters are unlikely to be directly negatively impacted by Trump's policies, so they won't turn out in huge numbers to vote AGAINST him. So they will still have to actively vote FOR the Democratic candidate, and the way to get them to do that is by being moderate to be palatable. Otherwise, even if they refuse to actively vote for Trump, they just won't vote. And that's how he wins 2020.

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