[APS] Who is funding newly-incorporated APE
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Anonymous
It’s only “triggering” to the APE crew who publicly asked APS to call them and stroke their ego. And it’s Sept 2021 and they *still* can’t wear a mask correctly? |
Anonymous
| Also, anyone who has actually followed APS planning knows that APS has been over-projecting for years, ever since that extreme growth in about 2015. It's a rolling average model. That's how it works. |
Anonymous
| That's a good point. In fall 2014, APS projected over 29k students by fall of 2019. Actual fall 2019 enrollment was 1000 lower. APS enrollment overestimation was cascading pre-pandemic, getting worse the further out APS went. It doesn't make any sense to use pre-pandemic projections as a benchmark to assess current enrollment. Yet, the actual enrollment drops matter. As an absolute number, enrollment has dropped by about 1000 students from Fall 2019 (~28k) to Fall 2021 (~27k). That's real. |
Anonymous
Poster easily identified 2,000 without any projections, but keep ignoring that. You closed school folks are so triggered by this information. Rent free. I'm just watching with popcorn. |
Anonymous
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I think schools should be open and always did. But I don't see it. Where is the 2k drop? Maybe I'm just missing it or don't understand what the poster is saying.
9/30/16 enrollment = 26,152 https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Sept-30-Membership-2016-17-1.pdf 9/30/17 enrollment = 26,941 https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Sept-30-Membership-2017-18.pdf 9/30/18 enrollment = 27,436 https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Sept-30-Membership-2018-19.pdf 9/30/19 enrollment = 28,020 https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2_Sept-30-Membership-2019-20_U-MEM_281_Revised.pdf 9/30/20 enrollment = 26,895 https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/U_MEM_281_Summary_10_6_2020.pdf 8/30/21 enrollment = 26,932 https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/arlington/Board.nsf/files/C6PUD66FF9BF/$file/F-1%20Start%20of%20School%20Update.pdf drop from 2019: 28,020 - 26,932 = 1,088. That is a real drop all on it's own. I don't understand why there's a need to inflate it to 2,000 or 3,000 or whatever. Or I don't understand the point being expressed by the poster. |
Anonymous
Larger classes replace smaller classes who left. Class of 2020 in Fall 2019= 1,762 Class of 2021 in Fall 2019 = 1,779 Fall 2021 1st Grade Class =2,127 (6% smaller than Fall 2019 1st Grade Class) Fall 2021 K Class =1,995 (12% smaller than Fall 2019 K Class) |
Anonymous
Fall 2014 projections projected enrollment for fall 2019 as 28,693. Fall 2019 enrollment (5 years later) was 28,020. https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/FallProjections14-23_Final_Revised.pdf Pre-2014 projections were very accurate too - see slide 45. https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2015/03/CFS_SC3_APS_Projections.pdf APS updated their projections in February 2019, so the data now is 2 1/2 years old. In fact, APS again updated these 2019 enrollment projections in May 2021 because of the declining enrollment (by 525 based off of their survey in April 2021 of students who left APS during the pandemic). https://www.arlnow.com/2021/05/05/lower-enrollment-could-help-bail-aps-out-of-11m-deficit/ https://www.arlnow.com/2021/05/10/school-board-approves-700-million-fy-2022-budget/ The only argument you all have left is "f*** those people who left for not wanting schools closed." That's it. |
Anonymous
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The fall 2014 link is to something dated November 7, 2013.
APS's November 7, 2014 projection for Fall 2019 is 29,188. https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/FallProjections15-24.pdf Actual enrollment for September 30, 2019 was 28,020. https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/FallProjections15-24.pdf In the Fall 2014, APS overestimated 2019 enrollment by 1,168. I don't understand the need to use projections when the actual enrollment has been decreasing. You win the argument looking at actual enrollment and can appropriately knock APS for disenrollment. APS is historically terrible at projecting, among many other things. So it is surprising to see anyone tout their accuracy, or to weaken a strong argument by stretching to include students that were never in the system. |
Anonymous
| 1000 students down from 2019. And...? Why is that a problem? We don't have crowded schools and boundary changes will be trivial. APS always projected a leveling off, just not because of a pandemic. Also, Arlington housing prices are through the roof -- this is not a community in decline. What's the problem here? |
Anonymous
They want to feel missed. They even want APS to *reach out* to them. APS projections were never great, but were better than nothing. The pandemic affected many things in Arlington and threw off prior assumptions. People moved. Some went private. Lower numbers aren’t inherently a bad thing, just a reflection on how life has been changed by the pandemic. |
Anonymous
| People are unhappy with APS and voting with their feet. After years of steadily rising enrollment, it's not a coincidence that enrollment just dropped from 2019. Even if disenrollment alleviates overcrowding, it's a symptom of a system that is not meeting the needs of a substantial number of students and families that are either moving or can afford a different option. It's a real problem that the SB should acknowledge. |
Anonymous
enrollment has tanked because of APS's handling of the pandemic ***fixed it Haha. This is great spin. You people's minds are impenetrable. Reminds me of Iraq war supporters' unfailing support for Bush in the mid-2000s. |
Anonymous
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This is fake news, APE spin. Enrollment is up over last year.
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Anonymous
So go throw your tantrum at your kids' new school. Quite b1tching to APS. |
Anonymous
Ha, maybe so. By APE logic, enrollment change = how well APS did last year. APE thought that families were leaving, which to them was more proof of last year's disaster. The fact that enrollment is up must mean that families didn't think it was that bad after all. Truth is, this is all stupid and neither side is right. Test scores are the real metric. Why anyone cares about enrollment is beyond me. |