Reply to [APS] Who is funding newly-incorporated APE

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]That's a good point.  In fall 2014, APS projected over 29k students by fall of 2019.  Actual fall 2019 enrollment was 1000 lower.  APS enrollment overestimation was cascading pre-pandemic, getting worse the further out APS went.  It doesn't make any sense to use pre-pandemic projections as a benchmark to assess current enrollment.  Yet, the actual enrollment drops matter.  As an absolute number, enrollment has dropped by about 1000 students from Fall 2019 (~28k) to Fall 2021 (~27k).  That's real.  [/quote]

Fall 2014 projections projected enrollment for fall 2019 as 28,693.  Fall 2019 enrollment (5 years later) was 28,020.
https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/FallProjections14-23_Final_Revised.pdf

Pre-2014 projections were very accurate too - see slide 45. 
https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2015/03/CFS_SC3_APS_Projections.pdf

APS updated their projections in February 2019, so the data now is 2 1/2 years old. In fact, APS again updated these 2019 enrollment projections in May 2021 because of the declining enrollment (by 525 based off of their survey in April 2021 of students who left APS during the pandemic).
https://www.arlnow.com/2021/05/05/lower-enrollment-could-help-bail-aps-out-of-11m-deficit/
https://www.arlnow.com/2021/05/10/school-board-approves-700-million-fy-2022-budget/

The only argument you all have left is "f*** those people who left for not wanting schools closed."  That's it.[/quote]

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