2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

He's saying that SR's analysis is BS. "Hopium" is what he called it - which I guess is just an edgelord say of saying that it's a basket of wishes.

Things don't look great for us Dems right now. As an optimist, I can't help but hope that we will hold the Senate still. Seems not impossible. I keep trying to talk myself through the "how bad could it get" scenario. At least with Biden in the WH they can't get through any truly egregious legislation; they just won't do anything except probably launch a hundred investigations and impeachments, and not confirm any more judges.

Yes, he called it hopium, but he had no response to the claim that a lot of these polls are biased. In fact, he essentially confirmed they were because he said that it was a real problem for the RealClearPolitics site because they don't account for that bias and just do a straight average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot of people are being lulled into a false sense of optimism by these early voting numbers. In NY there have been polls that have a 2-1 sampling size favoring registered Dems where Zeldin is tied with Hochul. Just because registered Dems are voting early doesn’t mean they’re voting for Dems. There is a large contingent of Dems that will be voting for Republicans like Zeldin this year because of inflation and crime. You can wish this weren’t true but if you look at the fine print of these polls Dems should be rightly worried. If Dems were really not in a state of panic HRC would not be stumping in a solid blue state like NY.

Jeeeeeeesus this is like the 10th post I’ve seen from a Republican that makes vast, GOP-friendly predictions based, they claim, on various polls. But you never link to the polls that are so damning. You sound like a GOP operative, an unpaid one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

He's saying that SR's analysis is BS. "Hopium" is what he called it - which I guess is just an edgelord say of saying that it's a basket of wishes.

Things don't look great for us Dems right now. As an optimist, I can't help but hope that we will hold the Senate still. Seems not impossible. I keep trying to talk myself through the "how bad could it get" scenario. At least with Biden in the WH they can't get through any truly egregious legislation; they just won't do anything except probably launch a hundred investigations and impeachments, and not confirm any more judges.

Yes, he called it hopium, but he had no response to the claim that a lot of these polls are biased. In fact, he essentially confirmed they were because he said that it was a real problem for the RealClearPolitics site because they don't account for that bias and just do a straight average.

He's giving republicans a 54% chance of winning the senate and an 85% chance of winning the house. Thinking the democrats have a chance in the house is delusional. The senate is slipping by the day

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

You’re exactly right. As a politician she has that once in a generation talent. She’s the Republican Obama.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

You’re exactly right. As a politician she has that once in a generation talent. She’s the Republican Obama.

Good one! You almost had me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of people are being lulled into a false sense of optimism by these early voting numbers. In NY there have been polls that have a 2-1 sampling size favoring registered Dems where Zeldin is tied with Hochul. Just because registered Dems are voting early doesn’t mean they’re voting for Dems. There is a large contingent of Dems that will be voting for Republicans like Zeldin this year because of inflation and crime. You can wish this weren’t true but if you look at the fine print of these polls Dems should be rightly worried. If Dems were really not in a state of panic HRC would not be stumping in a solid blue state like NY.

Jeeeeeeesus this is like the 10th post I’ve seen from a Republican that makes vast, GOP-friendly predictions based, they claim, on various polls. But you never link to the polls that are so damning. You sound like a GOP operative, an unpaid one.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NY-General-Poll-Report-1031.pdf

Poll was made up of 53.6% Dems, 27.5% Republicans, and the rest were independent. I know Trafalgar is Republican leaning, but they were very accurate in every election since 2016. If Dems are even in any poll where they’re overweighted by 2 to 1 in the sampling size how is that anything less than a very worrying sign for the party at large?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

You’re exactly right. As a politician she has that once in a generation talent. She’s the Republican Obama.

Good one! You almost had me.

Most charismatic Republican politician since Reagan too. There’s a reason Dems are so scared of her. She’s shrewd, very media savvy, very personable, and had a presidential look. If she wasn’t such a good politician why do you see so many hit pieces on her? You can tell who’s a strong Republican presidential candidate by the amount of hate she gets. It’s the same reason why you can tell DeSantis would be strong. Weak candidates don’t get hit pieces because they aren’t threatening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

Kari Lake is Sarah Palin 2.0 - she ain't ever going to be President.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

I have to say, if I had to choose between her and DeSantis, I'd prefer her. Mostly because I want to see DeSantis humiliated and defeated. Local bias, I guess.

But I'd rather neither of them. Would you like the chicken or a bucket of vomit?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

You’re exactly right. As a politician she has that once in a generation talent. She’s the Republican Obama.

Good one! You almost had me.

Most charismatic Republican politician since Reagan too. There’s a reason Dems are so scared of her. She’s shrewd, very media savvy, very personable, and had a presidential look. If she wasn’t such a good politician why do you see so many hit pieces on her? You can tell who’s a strong Republican presidential candidate by the amount of hate she gets. It’s the same reason why you can tell DeSantis would be strong. Weak candidates don’t get hit pieces because they aren’t threatening.

I would invite you to revisit all the coverage of Scott Walker. I know what you're thinking - who?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prediction: Republicans are going to be up to 53 Senators and will win the House handily. Bolduc will win NH and Walker will win but lose in the run off.

In 2024 Republicans will nominate DeSantis and if Biden runs they’ll win by the widest margin since Obama won in 2008. Dems better hope Kari Lake isn’t on the ticket because those VP debates will be brutal.

Prediction: Dems hold 50/50 Senate and hold House (squeaker).
In 2024 Kari Lake will run for President and win (which is terrifying.)

If Kari Lake is the first woman president this board will have an epic meltdown.

I'm not saying Kari Lake represents what I want in a president; but she has the looks, personality, and moxie to campaign very effectively. She would be very appealing to a broad spectrum of voters .

Kari Lake is Sarah Palin 2.0 - she ain't ever going to be President.

PP here. I thought that at first, but she's much quicker on her feet and has stronger verbal skills.