2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.

Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.

Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.

I hope you're right.

Between the new polls, Biden’s speech, his publicist’s comments, his head of tech’s comments, something is VERY amiss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.

Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.

Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.

I’m actually somewhat hopeful that the Democrats will expand their majorities in both. The GOP hasn’t exactly acted normally lately and ending Roe? I’ve never had an abortion (and I’m a weirdo who has only had one sexual partner) but what woman hasn’t had that moment (or days) of panic that you can’t remember when your last period was and oh my god am I late?

And then there are the numbers:

This will not be the slam dunk you hope it to be. There are many conservative religious women who have never "had that moment" and either are ambivalent about Roe or are happy to see it overturned. It's obvious that a lot of liberals/progressives want to pretend these groups of people don't exist because they're not part of your social circle.

Who wants the government up in our personal business? Not conservatives! They want government to get the F back and let them live their lives. I find it insane that any true conservative would want government to tell us what to put in or take out of our bodies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.

Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.

Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.

I hope you're right.

Between the new polls, Biden’s speech, his publicist’s comments, his head of tech’s comments, something is VERY amiss.

?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

[Anonymous]

FiveThirtyEight poll data shows Wexton (VA-10) leading by 2% and Spanberger (VA-7) leading by 5%.

That explains all the ads I'm seeing, I guess.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FiveThirtyEight poll data shows Wexton (VA-10) leading by 2% and Spanberger (VA-7) leading by 5%.

That explains all the ads I'm seeing, I guess.

Wow! I thought the Spanberger race was much tighter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

The problem with this that he doesn't seem to address is that he says the FiveThirtyEight model makes these adjustments based on past performance, i.e. how close that pollster has been to the actual results in the past. But a lot of these new partisan polls making their way into the FiveThirtyEight model have very thin histories.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

He's saying that SR's analysis is BS. "Hopium" is what he called it - which I guess is just an edgelord say of saying that it's a basket of wishes.

Things don't look great for us Dems right now. As an optimist, I can't help but hope that we will hold the Senate still. Seems not impossible. I keep trying to talk myself through the "how bad could it get" scenario. At least with Biden in the WH they can't get through any truly egregious legislation; they just won't do anything except probably launch a hundred investigations and impeachments, and not confirm any more judges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

What does that mean? How do you "prepare accordingly" for a bloodbath, if you think one is coming? Like stock up on bottled water, Plan B pills, and try to get that second passport, or what?

Well for starters, if you are working on Capitol Hill for people like Sen Warnock or Sen Kelly, you might want to polish up that resume....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

What does that mean? How do you "prepare accordingly" for a bloodbath, if you think one is coming? Like stock up on bottled water, Plan B pills, and try to get that second passport, or what?

Well for starters, if you are working on Capitol Hill for people like Sen Warnock or Sen Kelly, you might want to polish up that resume....

Kelly is polling 5 points ahead. He will win easily.

[Anonymous]

A lot of people are being lulled into a false sense of optimism by these early voting numbers. In NY there have been polls that have a 2-1 sampling size favoring registered Dems where Zeldin is tied with Hochul. Just because registered Dems are voting early doesn’t mean they’re voting for Dems. There is a large contingent of Dems that will be voting for Republicans like Zeldin this year because of inflation and crime. You can wish this weren’t true but if you look at the fine print of these polls Dems should be rightly worried. If Dems were really not in a state of panic HRC would not be stumping in a solid blue state like NY.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.

And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).

By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.

Prepare accordingly.

What does that mean? How do you "prepare accordingly" for a bloodbath, if you think one is coming? Like stock up on bottled water, Plan B pills, and try to get that second passport, or what?

Well for starters, if you are working on Capitol Hill for people like Sen Warnock or Sen Kelly, you might want to polish up that resume....

Kelly is polling 5 points ahead. He will win easily.

Let’s revisit this in a week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.

You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.

Nate and his team have thoroughly debunked this Simon Rosenberg’s BS.

I just listened to the podcast where he discussed this. His argument seems to be that his model adjusts for biased polls and that democrats could release their own partisan polls. It sure that’s really a debunking. He’s not saying the polls are good. He’s just saying his model (unlike real clear politics) takes their bias into account.

He's saying that SR's analysis is BS. "Hopium" is what he called it - which I guess is just an edgelord say of saying that it's a basket of wishes.

Things don't look great for us Dems right now. As an optimist, I can't help but hope that we will hold the Senate still. Seems not impossible. I keep trying to talk myself through the "how bad could it get" scenario. At least with Biden in the WH they can't get through any truly egregious legislation; they just won't do anything except probably launch a hundred investigations and impeachments, and not confirm any more judges.

The democrats will never get a better contrast of candidates in PA if they hope to keep it purple. If they lose to Dr. Oz, then I've given up hope that they can ever put up a fight in the rust belt. If Warnock loses to Walker, can is Georgia really purple if Trump isn't actually on the ballot? The democratic coalition seems to be continually shrinking - it feels like we're the old federalists with only the urban and educated vote remaining.