Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Trump will win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

This. Betting markets are different from the polls. Polls show who people hope to win. Betting market show who people pick if they have money on the line.

Anyone can bet in the betting markets. Citizens, non-citizens, foreigners, billionaires throwing pocket change at it to get the desired outcome, etc. Polls at least take only registered and likely voters. That's the pool of people who are likely to actually get out and vote.

How did the betting markets do in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

This. Betting markets are different from the polls. Polls show who people hope to win. Betting market show who people pick if they have money on the line.

Betting markets are easy to tilt if you don’t mind spending money. I am sure some billionaire like the Uihleins or DeVos or Thiel decided that instead of paying for a bunch of text messages that annoy people they would pay to tilt the betting markets.

There was just a study that came out in the last week or two saying someone did that in a recent election. (I actually think you know that’s what’s happening too.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s enemies list vs to do list. I am not confident which America will pick but I feel ok

Correction. It’s an enemies list versus a can’t do list.

WHY IS THERE AN 'ENEMIES' LIST?

This is why Harris will win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s enemies list vs to do list. I am not confident which America will pick but I feel ok

Correction. It’s an enemies list versus a can’t do list.

WHY IS THERE AN 'ENEMIES' LIST?

This is why Harris will win

She f***** better. The future of our democracy depends on this election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

This. Betting markets are different from the polls. Polls show who people hope to win. Betting market show who people pick if they have money on the line.

Except gambling by its nature attracts stupid people, who are exactly the type to bet who they want to win instead of who they think will win.

Casinos make the vast majority of their money from slot machines, which have the worst expected value of any gambling game. Sportsbooks make the vast majority of their money from parlays, which have the worst expected value of any type of sports bet. Lotteries make the vast majority of their money from large multi-state jackpot games, which have the worst expected value of any lottery game.

Gamblers are by and large idiots, which means they're by and large Trump supporters.

[Anonymous]

early voted this morning in a blue state but a swing district. I really didn't see enough likely Trump voters there to cancel out all the Harris voters. You can never know for sure but just based on likely demographics, I would say it was two or three to one Harris to Trump voter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s enemies list vs to do list. I am not confident which America will pick but I feel ok

Correction. It’s an enemies list versus a can’t do list.

WHY IS THERE AN 'ENEMIES' LIST?

This is why Harris will win

She f***** better. The future of our democracy depends on this election.

No it doesn't. And Kamala Harris is not a Marxist or Communist, either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: early voted this morning in a blue state but a swing district. I really didn't see enough likely Trump voters there to cancel out all the Harris voters. You can never know for sure but just based on likely demographics, I would say it was two or three to one Harris to Trump voter.

Your little sliver of anecdata is duly noted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s enemies list vs to do list. I am not confident which America will pick but I feel ok

Correction. It’s an enemies list versus a can’t do list.

WHY IS THERE AN 'ENEMIES' LIST?

This is why Harris will win

She f***** better. The future of our democracy depends on this election.

No it doesn't. And Kamala Harris is not a Marxist or Communist, either.

I mean to some degree democracy depends on every election. This one matters more than usual. But you can't have democracy without elections. So it's not hyperbolic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win

Scott Adams is insane though.

[Anonymous]

If I had to bet $1 million on outcome of election, I would absolutely choose Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, I don’t know. I’m really hoping for Kamala, but I’m terrified it’s going to be a repeat of 2016.

This. But Trump will win more states and by a wider margin. He is polling much better than 2016. It is what it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If I had to bet $1 million on outcome of election, I would absolutely choose Trump.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If I had to bet $1 million on outcome of election, I would absolutely choose Trump.

Join all the bros placing the online bets if that floats your boat. The moms and dads and grannies and aunts and uncles and sisters and brothers and daughters and sons , etc. that are out here pushing back on all of Trump's nonsense, are certainly not sitting at computers placing online bets.

But they are voting