What happened to this California family?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Heat stroke really makes the most sense here but I, too, am a bit confused as to why authorities haven’t publicly stated this to be a likely cause of death.

I understand that they can’t definitively state cause of death but, given the extremely high temps, I’m surprised they haven’t issued a statement naming heat stroke as a possible cause and issuing a warning to hikers to be extremely careful hiking in high temps. This seems to be standard practice unless there is a solid reason they don’t believe it to be heat stroke

I think it is because the baby was involved, they are going to be even more scrupulous in their investigation. As it has been said again and again in this thread, they are waiting for the toxicology reports.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I would bet money that they all died of heat stroke. Dad couldn't sweat b/c of big pack, was exerting himself, and it was 106 degrees with no shade! A human cannot survive if their core temp goes above 106 and there was no way for them to cool down. Babies are like old people, they can't thermo regulate. The baby was trapped in a backpack oven. Bet the dad didn't even realize til he took the pack off that the baby had died. The dog probably stopped moving at some point, at which time the dad sat down.

I’m following thread and this makes the most sense. It explains the positioning of sitting dad, dog at side, mom continuing to scramble up the hill. Dog and Dad (maybe carrying both baby and dig at this point) faltered, dad sat down, only then realizing baby was already dead. Mom freaked and began to run for help. Dog and parents were already near death at that point.

They took a baby in a baby carrier in 106 degree heat? WTF. Dumb people.

That’s what I keep coming back to. The hike made no sense on any level. And the dad had researched it. If it’s heat stroke, it’s not like they came into the hike not knowing the hazards. All of the information they needed about this adventure (the distance, topography, lack of shade, and hourly forecast) was available to them before the hike began.

In order to believe it was heat stroke, it requires us to believe they made SEVERAL significant errors in judgement BEFORE THE HIKE EVEN BEGAN:

-taking baby on a hike on such a hot day and getting such a late start
-choosing a route with no shade
-choosing such a vigorous and involved hike
-not bringing enough water
-not turning back once they realized how hard the whole thing was going to be

These were not stupid people. Not tourists. Not inexperienced hikers. They had to have known what they were getting into. And with a BABY.

I just don’t understand undertaking the hike in the first place.

NP here:
It's not usually that hot in their area. It was an unseasonably warm day. They don't live in a desert, but rather the forested foothills of the Sierra Nevadas.

I honestly think they (1) neglected to check their weather app before going out on the hike and (2) they did not fully comprehend the difficulty, elevation change, and lack of shade on the switchback trail. Their mistakes were borne out of a mix of ignorance and over-confidence.

I mean you make valid points and that would explain it. I think they’d been in a heat wave for awhile though, hadn’t they? I don’t think it was random or sudden.

I think I’m just having trouble understanding the thought process. They worked in tech….they were parents of a young baby. The kind of people who would research these things. Heck, most of my friends don’t even go to a restaurant or buy a $20 item off of Amazon without looking at reviews. How could they have been so reckless as to not have checked the weather and distance (or not to have bailed out soon into the trip)?

If they had checked their weather app that morning, the forecast was partly cloudy with a high of 97 degrees. Above average for the area but not a "heat wave." The discrepancy between the forecasted high and the 103-109 reported by the Sheriff's Dept can be explained by the fact the closest weather reporting station (Mariposa) is normally cooler than the actual location of the hike. In rural California it's very common to not have access to a precise forecast for your exact location. I think far too much blame is being placed on the couple. I suspect the the truth is far closer to what is depicted in the book/movie "The Perfect Storm" where a series of small unfortunate decisions leads to a tragic outcome.

In what universe is taking an eight-mile hike in that weather with a baby and a dog appropriate? MAYBE walk a mile in and a mile back in the morning, not the whole loop.

Wow. How not funny this post is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And to add 97 degrees is pretty normal summer weather in the foothills, not something that would cause a change in plans. Without humidity 97 degrees is not oppressive heat.

until you're hiking up strenuous steep rock faced inclines with no shade with a baby and a furry dog.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are from AZ and if you aren’t used to heat it can be misleading. In our low humidity 100 doesn’t really feel hot. Especially if you are used to how heat feels with higher humidity. It’s very dangerous because you will overheat without feeling it till it’s too late. That’s why we never go anywhere without water and have ordinances requiring businesses to have water available.

I’m also from AZ. People don’t embark on hikes in the middle of heat warnings when it’s already close to 99 degrees with no shade. It’s just not a thing.

August hiking in arizona means leaving your house before 6 AM.

Another Arizonan. I posted this upthread. I originally doubted heat stroke because I’ve seen a fair amount of heat stroke and it would be weird to have two adults and a dog succumb so quickly one after another. But after learning the details about the length of hike, and the time they left, I don’t see how it couldn’t have been heat stroke. I think the only other possibility is that they were so hot they swam in the river to cool off and the river toxins somehow made it all worse. I’m sure the dog, at least, swam. You can’t keep an overheated dog out of the water. But plain old heat stroke seems the likeliest.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:We are from AZ and if you aren’t used to heat it can be misleading. In our low humidity 100 doesn’t really feel hot. Especially if you are used to how heat feels with higher humidity. It’s very dangerous because you will overheat without feeling it till it’s too late. That’s why we never go anywhere without water and have ordinances requiring businesses to have water available.

I’m also from AZ. People don’t embark on hikes in the middle of heat warnings when it’s already close to 99 degrees with no shade. It’s just not a thing.

August hiking in arizona means leaving your house before 6 AM.

Another Arizonan. I posted this upthread. I originally doubted heat stroke because I’ve seen a fair amount of heat stroke and it would be weird to have two adults and a dog succumb so quickly one after another. But after learning the details about the length of hike, and the time they left, I don’t see how it couldn’t have been heat stroke. I think the only other possibility is that they were so hot they swam in the river to cool off and the river toxins somehow made it all worse. I’m sure the dog, at least, swam. You can’t keep an overheated dog out of the water. But plain old heat stroke seems the likeliest.

I mean, I can think of something one other thing it could have been….

Keep in mind that there are a lot of scenic trails in their area. Yet…they chose one where they knew there would be no foot traffic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I posted a map way earlier in thread to show the Hites Cove Trail Rd, the easier trail and a great catch by a pp. When I first saw the map, I was ahhh they took the wrong trail on the right, Hites Cove Trail (san Road). Now, I'm leaning toward something more. I won't say because it's ongoing. But I agree with other pp's, the parents were negligent before they even stepped on the trail. If only one parent survived, I'd bet they'd be lawyering up on suspicion of negligent homicide. The pp that said it's as bad as leaving a child/pet in a hot car was spot on. It's so tragic, and was so preventable. The real victims are the baby and dog. It all feels wrong. I got a weird vibe looking at the family picture. Nanny must have been interviewed in depth about the parents. Also, I agree with another poster about the oddity of mom not having a cell, and dad not having an emergency location device.

Wish the "Spirit Reader" would chime in.

Also consider, this is california in an area with lots of beautiful scenic hikes. There are lots of places they could have chosen to go. Instead they chose this hike where they knew there was unlikely to be anyone else on the trail (and indeed, there wasn’t since they weren’t discovered despite being there for over 48 hours).

16:26 again. Agree. Could the dad have been insistent enough, and mom more passive? Why didn't she have her phone? Where's her phone? No mention of it by investigators. Dad's seated position is weighing on me too.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:We are from AZ and if you aren’t used to heat it can be misleading. In our low humidity 100 doesn’t really feel hot. Especially if you are used to how heat feels with higher humidity. It’s very dangerous because you will overheat without feeling it till it’s too late. That’s why we never go anywhere without water and have ordinances requiring businesses to have water available.

I’m also from AZ. People don’t embark on hikes in the middle of heat warnings when it’s already close to 99 degrees with no shade. It’s just not a thing.

August hiking in arizona means leaving your house before 6 AM.

Another Arizonan. I posted this upthread. I originally doubted heat stroke because I’ve seen a fair amount of heat stroke and it would be weird to have two adults and a dog succumb so quickly one after another. But after learning the details about the length of hike, and the time they left, I don’t see how it couldn’t have been heat stroke. I think the only other possibility is that they were so hot they swam in the river to cool off and the river toxins somehow made it all worse. I’m sure the dog, at least, swam. You can’t keep an overheated dog out of the water. But plain old heat stroke seems the likeliest.

I mean, I can think of something one other thing it could have been….

Keep in mind that there are a lot of scenic trails in their area. Yet…they chose one where they knew there would be no foot traffic.

They chose the one that was very close to their house. Makes sense since they got a late start for such a hot day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I posted a map way earlier in thread to show the Hites Cove Trail Rd, the easier trail and a great catch by a pp. When I first saw the map, I was ahhh they took the wrong trail on the right, Hites Cove Trail (san Road). Now, I'm leaning toward something more. I won't say because it's ongoing. But I agree with other pp's, the parents were negligent before they even stepped on the trail. If only one parent survived, I'd bet they'd be lawyering up on suspicion of negligent homicide. The pp that said it's as bad as leaving a child/pet in a hot car was spot on. It's so tragic, and was so preventable. The real victims are the baby and dog. It all feels wrong. I got a weird vibe looking at the family picture. Nanny must have been interviewed in depth about the parents. Also, I agree with another poster about the oddity of mom not having a cell, and dad not having an emergency location device.

Wish the "Spirit Reader" would chime in.

Also consider, this is california in an area with lots of beautiful scenic hikes. There are lots of places they could have chosen to go. Instead they chose this hike where they knew there was unlikely to be anyone else on the trail (and indeed, there wasn’t since they weren’t discovered despite being there for over 48 hours).

16:26 again. Agree. Could the dad have been insistent enough, and mom more passive? Why didn't she have her phone? Where's her phone? No mention of it by investigators. Dad's seated position is weighing on me too.

What are the vOiCEs telling you?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:We are from AZ and if you aren’t used to heat it can be misleading. In our low humidity 100 doesn’t really feel hot. Especially if you are used to how heat feels with higher humidity. It’s very dangerous because you will overheat without feeling it till it’s too late. That’s why we never go anywhere without water and have ordinances requiring businesses to have water available.

I’m also from AZ. People don’t embark on hikes in the middle of heat warnings when it’s already close to 99 degrees with no shade. It’s just not a thing.

August hiking in arizona means leaving your house before 6 AM.

Another Arizonan. I posted this upthread. I originally doubted heat stroke because I’ve seen a fair amount of heat stroke and it would be weird to have two adults and a dog succumb so quickly one after another. But after learning the details about the length of hike, and the time they left, I don’t see how it couldn’t have been heat stroke. I think the only other possibility is that they were so hot they swam in the river to cool off and the river toxins somehow made it all worse. I’m sure the dog, at least, swam. You can’t keep an overheated dog out of the water. But plain old heat stroke seems the likeliest.

I mean, I can think of something one other thing it could have been….

Keep in mind that there are a lot of scenic trails in their area. Yet…they chose one where they knew there would be no foot traffic.

NP. Can you state your theory instead of hinting? Do you believe it was a murder-suicide? I have considered that possibility, but I’m not sure how it could be done in a manner that wouldn’t be obviously intentional to investigators.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am admittedly overly invested in this case.

One thing that is mentioned repeatedly on the WebSleuths site, is that there were extreme heat warnings in the days leading up to this hike. The high in Marioposa the day before the hike was 105. A PP keeps claiming that the temps caught them off guard and they only expected it to be 97 that day. I haven’t gone snd pulled the records, but the consensus on WebSleuths seems to be that the heat was a well known factor prior to the hike and it did not unexpectedly become much hotter than anticipated.

The WS site also includes the hourly weather for the area and day of the hike, and it was over 100 at 11 and well into the 90s at 9.

It’s kind of crazy to have gone out in 90s temps too, with baby and dog, in an arid area. Just saying. I guess they really liked heat.

People go hiking here in the 90s with disgusting humidity which makes it 1000x worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am admittedly overly invested in this case.

One thing that is mentioned repeatedly on the WebSleuths site, is that there were extreme heat warnings in the days leading up to this hike. The high in Marioposa the day before the hike was 105. A PP keeps claiming that the temps caught them off guard and they only expected it to be 97 that day. I haven’t gone snd pulled the records, but the consensus on WebSleuths seems to be that the heat was a well known factor prior to the hike and it did not unexpectedly become much hotter than anticipated.

The WS site also includes the hourly weather for the area and day of the hike, and it was over 100 at 11 and well into the 90s at 9.

The daily high temps for Mariposa for the week preceding the hike were 93, 93, 96, 97, 96, 96 and 95. So higher than average but no "extreme heat warnings."
Your friends on the other website are BSing about having hourly temps for the "area of the hike." They are not captured anywhere. It's a relatively remote area. Don't believe everything you read on the web.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Can we back up and talk about why someone might put a baby in a carrier and head out into that heat? I had my babies in May in DC and I didn’t use the ergo that summer when it was too hot because I was worried they would overheat with my body heat. I realize it’s a hiking pack, but still. Seems VERY reckless.

This supports the theory that a short (likely morning) hike was planned and something happened to keep them out there longer into the day than expected.

It was only in the 70s-80s for most of the morning. With no humidity that’s nothing. We frequently hiked with our babies on weekend mornings, and went home for lunch/nap before 11 AM.

Babies are often up at 5 or 6 am, they could have gone out super early.

You are not correct re the temperature from what has been reported, and we don’t know when they left. LE initially said afternoon. Here are the readings that Sunday from El Portal, just a couple miles away, but at a higher (cooler) elevation than where they were found:

6:51AM 73F 49%
7:51AM 77°F 47%
8:51AM 85°F 37%
9:51AM 92°F 28%
10:51AM 99°F 22%
11:51AM 103°F 20%
12:51PM 107°F 17%
1:51PM 108°F 16%
2:51PM 109°F 16%
3:51PM 107°F 18%
4:51PM 105°F 19%
5:51PM 101°F 22%
6:51PM 98°F 24%
7:51PM 94°F 28%

Ok I’m the PP who’s been saying it wasn’t that hot in the morning. I stand corrected. This is pretty hot. This data is different from what I saw reported earlier. After seeing this, heat stroke does seem more possible (though I’m still in the FA camp).

Just bumping up this post from several days ago that includes the temp data.

According to Weather.com the high temp for El Portal on 8/15 was 102 and that would have been around 3 or 4pm.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I would bet money that they all died of heat stroke. Dad couldn't sweat b/c of big pack, was exerting himself, and it was 106 degrees with no shade! A human cannot survive if their core temp goes above 106 and there was no way for them to cool down. Babies are like old people, they can't thermo regulate. The baby was trapped in a backpack oven. Bet the dad didn't even realize til he took the pack off that the baby had died. The dog probably stopped moving at some point, at which time the dad sat down.

I’m following thread and this makes the most sense. It explains the positioning of sitting dad, dog at side, mom continuing to scramble up the hill. Dog and Dad (maybe carrying both baby and dig at this point) faltered, dad sat down, only then realizing baby was already dead. Mom freaked and began to run for help. Dog and parents were already near death at that point.

They took a baby in a baby carrier in 106 degree heat? WTF. Dumb people.

I don't think it was they took the baby out in that kind of heat so much as they didn't get back in time to avoid that kind of heat.

Obviously none of us know what happened but you also can’t underestimate the compulsion a person has to complete a hike, complete a run,etc. it is very satisfying for lack of a better word. Not so much to turn back early, especially if the front end of the “course” is easy. There is also a certain amount of mind over matter with these things. I love to hike and run in all sorts of difficult conditions and experience this feeling most of the time and I don’t have remarkable ability or drive at all. I can see how they might keep pushing on, just one more switchback, one more turn, etc. Clearly they made a bunch of dangerous, terrible decisions though, any one of which could have killed them, especially the more vulnerable members of their family.

+1. It sounds like they miscalculated the length of the hike and the actual temperature.

+1

Or…something else happened. Maybe they were planning for a 1 hr hike but their dog got off-leash.

Sh1t happens.

Stop acting like you know what happened.

I don’t think these pps are disagreeing with you. They are saying the hike was longer and hotter than anticipated. This may have been due to getting lost, the dog getting loose, any number of things. Regardless of what caused it they were out too long.

[Anonymous]

It’s refreshing people on this forum at least think heat stroke is a possibility. On a different discussion forum, people keep repeating how the human body can go three days without water.

[Anonymous]

If it is 97 out and you are hiking, climbing -your body is heating up faster than it can cool itself. Heat stroke when the body temp goes to 106 can come on as fast as 10-15 minutes. Death would happen fast.