Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see how anyone can think Harris is going to win. She’s losing Jews, Muslims, blacks, and Hispanics which in total is like 70% of the Democrat base.

Yikes

Don’t forget Catholics and men.

Asians, Protestants, and Gen Z males.

She’s going to lose practically 80% of America

Shes got enough old white ladies voting for though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

PP here. Should have also noted that Dem Senate candidates in swing states are now avoiding Biden and Harris and running ads showcasing their ability to work with Trump. That is not a good sign for Harris.

Harris’s lack of competence really should have been a topic more in discussion when Biden dropped out. It’s evident seeing her speak that she’s unprepared. She reads her remarks like it’s the first time she’s ever seen those words and frequently uses the wrong syllable for emphasis or inflection.

The weird thing is that there was a lot of reporting just 2 years ago about how she could not manage her VP office and that people were quitting in droves due to the toxic way she manages her teams.

It feels that the Democratic Party - whoever that is - sleepwalked into this election when alarm bells should have been ringing at least a couple of years ago.

Harris has not been a good VP at all. In addition to contributing little in terms of policy substance, she failed to use the office to build the base of support that would propel her to the presidency.

Biden seemed to realize this, but reacted foolishly by gambling on himself to get reelected. This was madness. His net approval ratings have been underwater since the Afghanistan debacle and his age meant that he was never going to be able to campaign effectively, regardless of who the Republicans nominated.

When he finally saw the writing on the wall, there was still time for a mini-primary to play out. The Obamas withheld their endorsement of Kamala for a few days, which seemed to indicate that this is what they were lobbying for. It would have been a bit messy, but probably would have led to a better outcome than what we have now.

Of course, Biden should have seen the writing on the wall last year and got out of the way in time for a proper primary to play out. I am not confident that a better candidate than Kamala would have emerged, but no one knew much about Barack in 2007 either. Even if Kamala had prevailed, it would have at least given her the exposure needed for the electorate to figure out what she was about.

Ultimately, it felt like the Democratic Party establishment were afraid of provoking a backlash among segments of the party by subjecting Kamala to a primary. But those segments were never going to decide the election. Moderate voters in the rust belt will. That the party favored the sensibilities of party stalwarts over the people they needed to win over to win the election suggests something is seriously broken.

When this is all said and done, the Democratic Party has a lot of introspection ahead of it.

This is a very excellent summary of the situation and how we got here.

One of the biggest tells for me about Harris and her mentality is that I go back and think about what Obama did in 2007 and 2008. He assembled, motivated and led a brilliant of people willing to put their future careers in politics on the line to take on the presumptive nominee, Clinton. I do a lot of recruitment now and it is really impressive what he built from scratch.

Harris instead over her time in the Senate and VP barely even has any loyal staff or advisers. And the clarifying moment for me was when she took over Biden’s campaign apparatus, one of her people was quoted saying “we get the A team now”.

That caused me to think that Obama assembled his own A Team. And it led me to recall that several Democratic senators have cultivated loyal advisers and supporters through their staff and help to place them in good jobs throughout DC as both a reward and to expand their influence. It caused me to think about how being from CA, Harris probably gets inundated with enquiries from motivated, highly skilled and qualified job seekers that she could hire to build a great team. And it caused me to think how crazy it is for Harris to think that there is just one set of good people working in Democratic politics in DC and she was being denied access to them because she was the VP.

I didn’t she she was a great pick for VP in 2020, but it was understandable given the zeitgeist.

She was a token blackish womanish running mate. That was the only reason she was picked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Democrats internal polling says so and they are now cutting ads with Trump mentioned in their ads.

Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey (D-PA), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT) all have adds cozying up to Trump to some degree.

Endangered Democrats brag about Trump ties in final stretch

Axios - October 18, 2024

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/18/senate-democrats-campaign-ads-trump-2024

"they are now cutting ads with Trump mentioned in their ads."
Why?

To disassociate themselves from a losing ticket. Gives them more flexibility after the election.

[Anonymous]

Trump will win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Democrats internal polling says so and they are now cutting ads with Trump mentioned in their ads.

Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey (D-PA), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT) all have adds cozying up to Trump to some degree.

Endangered Democrats brag about Trump ties in final stretch

Axios - October 18, 2024

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/18/senate-democrats-campaign-ads-trump-2024

"they are now cutting ads with Trump mentioned in their ads."
Why?

To disassociate themselves from a losing ticket. Gives them more flexibility after the election.

Kamala thinks she's gonna win? I thought everyone on here was saying they know they're gonna lose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think her loss is going to be worse than Hillary’s. I think essentially the entire Midwest will be red including either Illinois or Minnesota.

I think NH, Maine, NJ, or Virginia will flip red on the East Coast or all of the above

That would be amazing.

NJ resident here. You got that all wrong, sweetie. We hate Trump's guts here!

[Anonymous]

The popular vote? Oh yeah that doesn’t count in the US!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

So you're going to vote for Trump, who is so stupid he doesn't understand who pays for tariffs, and so stupid that he doesn't understand that his proposed 200% tariff will blow up inflation far worse than it is now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The popular vote? Oh yeah that doesn’t count in the US!

It doesn't count in elections but if you lose the popular vote you lose the popular vote, which means you do not have a mandate to go shitting all over the majority of the population that you lost to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

+1

What good is the right to choose if you don’t even have the financial means to exercise those rights?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

So you're going to vote for Trump, who is so stupid he doesn't understand who pays for tariffs, and so stupid that he doesn't understand that his proposed 200% tariff will blow up inflation far worse than it is now?

FYI - Percentages are intended to mislead. If tariffs are $1 and they go up to $2, that’s a 200% increase.

[Anonymous]

Trump will win because he is perceived as being strong on the economy and immigration/border security. And Harris will lose because she is a weak candidate who does not appeal to a majority of the country and loses potential voters every time she speaks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

Wow, maybe she will lose based on what you say but regardless of the actual outcome the conditions you're listing are really sad.

"I don't care about anyone else, I'm so selfish I'm completely disregarding the actual serious concerns of anyone younger than me and voting based on widely debunked populist nonsense that I could have easily looked up but chose not to."

Really puts it into perspective, America is so far gone that people with every opportunity and capability to find the truth chooses to ignore it and accept the easily accessible propaganda. Maybe we deserve what we get if people are actually this gullible and stupid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

You are so insensitive. I don't give a c**p about LGBTQ issues if my family can't have groceries.

Similarly, my ovaries dried up years ago, so I don't give a crap about a woman's right to choose. ((Not spreading your legs for every Tom, Dick and Harry is also a good piece of advice I'd give the younger gals.)) I need a President who isn't so stupid that she believes inflation is caused by "greedy corporation" and that the government should ever get in the business of price controls.

The primary thing driving this election is the economy.

Wow, maybe she will lose based on what you say but regardless of the actual outcome the conditions you're listing are really sad.

"I don't care about anyone else, I'm so selfish I'm completely disregarding the actual serious concerns of anyone younger than me and voting based on widely debunked populist nonsense that I could have easily looked up but chose not to."

Really puts it into perspective, America is so far gone that people with every opportunity and capability to find the truth chooses to ignore it and accept the easily accessible propaganda. Maybe we deserve what we get if people are actually this gullible and stupid.

You must be “Exhibit A.”