When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

This is the primary thing keeping me from the explanation definitely being that a local prep outfit -- or outfits -- managed to get test questions. Again.

Let's try the theory on for size: Loudoun /Fairfax parents were able to keep some aspect of education going during one critical year during the pandemic, and LCPS itself did a particularly amazing job. Then the relative advantage disappeared for Loudoun -- because, after all, it was just one year. The FCPS numbers last year were artificially buoyed by FCPS parents intervening during that critical year, similar to Loudoun's, and then the general decline in Fairfax's education quality savaged local scores.

It doesn't seem impossible, but I am have a hard time believing it, in part because the parents of NMSF recipients in Loudoun and FCPS aren't that distinctive, IMHO, from the typical highly educated, well-off parents of NMSF recipients elsewhere. And I can't think of anything Loudoun did as a county during the pandemic that would seem particularly effective, relative to everywhere else in Virginia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Doubling is a function of LCPS's smaller NMSF base. Using the above data, LCPS had 38 more NMSF in 2023 than 2022. That constitutes an 86% rise which sounds dramatic. But as a hypothetical, if FCPS had a rise of 38 relative to its base of 250, that would be a 15% rise. If you look at private schools, they might swing from three to nine NMSF in a given year, but we don't report that as their semifinalists tripling. When you have a small base, changes can generate big percent swings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

Totally agree with the bolded statement. I think this is reflective of the "new" admission process.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Doubling is a function of LCPS's smaller NMSF base. Using the above data, LCPS had 38 more NMSF in 2023 than 2022. That constitutes an 86% rise which sounds dramatic. But as a hypothetical, if FCPS had a rise of 38 relative to its base of 250, that would be a 15% rise. If you look at private schools, they might swing from three to nine NMSF in a given year, but we don't report that as their semifinalists tripling. When you have a small base, changes can generate big percent swings.

My hesitation is that whereas 5->10 is plausibly small numbers, 40->80 doesn't seem like it is. And eyeballing the per county historical records, the variance doesn't seem to be super high. Alas, I'm very much out of practice with this level of stats. Anyone care to run the numbers to see how often we should expect to see a swing this size?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

[Anonymous]

For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

Perhaps there is unique value in a TJ education for those kids, pushing kids who would otherwise not make the NMSF cut to make it?

As a TJ grad I thought the education was a difference-maker in my life. I would not have come out with the same knowledge or study skills without it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

Perhaps there is unique value in a TJ education for those kids, pushing kids who would otherwise not make the NMSF cut to make it?

As a TJ grad I thought the education was a difference-maker in my life. I would not have come out with the same knowledge or study skills without it.

Peer groups matter, and the peer group at TJ is now demonstrably weaker. There is both less raw talent and less motivation to excel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

DP. TJ in the past had so many kids earn NMSF or commended that there's likely a culture of everyone prepping pretty hard for the PSAT. It would feel a bit embarrassing for a TJ kid to be in the bottom 1/3 or 1/4 of the kids there and not at least earn commended. At the base school, so few kids earn any awards that there is likely a lot less pressure to prep for the PSAT.

I'd love to see the commended numbers for the last 10 years for each school. If the base schools had an increase in commended scholars this year, that would support my hypothesis that kids who might have been NMSF at TJ just didn't prep as hard at the base school and fell a little short. Likewise, if TJ had a significant increase in commended students, then the dropoff in talent isn't so bad. After all, there isn't that big of a difference between the kids just at the NMSF index and the kids slightly below. If TJ had a decrease in commended students and a huge increase in kids who were neither commended nor NMSF, then the drop in talent is huge. Commended only requires around a 97th percentile score nationally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

The TJ awards went down by 84, the FCPS total went down by 73. This is entirely a result of the drop at TJ.

Unless you think that PSAT score are assigned at birth, sending our best and brightest to a crucible like TJ makes them more competitive. They aren't subject to the same competition at their base school.

Going to TJ doesn't really do a lot of good for the kids that replaced them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

Perhaps there is unique value in a TJ education for those kids, pushing kids who would otherwise not make the NMSF cut to make it?

As a TJ grad I thought the education was a difference-maker in my life. I would not have come out with the same knowledge or study skills without it.

Steel sharpens steel. I went to a similar school in NYC called stuyvesant. The other students at stuy created a more academically challenging environment than my T20 college. I had to step up a lot more at stuy than in college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

DP. TJ in the past had so many kids earn NMSF or commended that there's likely a culture of everyone prepping pretty hard for the PSAT. It would feel a bit embarrassing for a TJ kid to be in the bottom 1/3 or 1/4 of the kids there and not at least earn commended. At the base school, so few kids earn any awards that there is likely a lot less pressure to prep for the PSAT.

I'd love to see the commended numbers for the last 10 years for each school. If the base schools had an increase in commended scholars this year, that would support my hypothesis that kids who might have been NMSF at TJ just didn't prep as hard at the base school and fell a little short. Likewise, if TJ had a significant increase in commended students, then the dropoff in talent isn't so bad. After all, there isn't that big of a difference between the kids just at the NMSF index and the kids slightly below. If TJ had a decrease in commended students and a huge increase in kids who were neither commended nor NMSF, then the drop in talent is huge. Commended only requires around a 97th percentile score nationally.

Hard disagree that it's about prepping. The overall education is harder - partially because as PP's mentioned the peer group is competitive and drives you to do better in every class and on every assignment. If you're taking TJ-level math with TJ kids from TJ teachers who expect everyone to just "get" math, PSAT math seems stupid easy.

-TJ alumn and yes, National Merit Scholar