My predcition and analysis: a Red Wave in Maryland in 2022. (Long post)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My gut says that the insufferable wokesters in Takoma Park and Silver Spring will be in for a rude awakening next year as the state makes a decisively rightward turn in electoral politics.

First, the governors race. Despite criticisms coming from Montgomery County over Hogan's handling of the pandemic and vaccine distribution, Hogan's popularity is sky high and especially among people of color. I think people will wake up to the fact that moderate Republican governors are better than leftist candidates, and if the Democrats nominate anyone other than Franchot, then the Republicans will win with someone like Kelly Schulz. She will be seen as a fiscally conservative Republican and Hogan has shown people that Republican governors and bipartisan balance are not so bad.

Second, the state legislature. I think the Democrats will lose the supermajority. The woke left will primary some of the conservative DEmocrats with woke leftists and they will lose to Republicans. People in Silver Spring just don't realize that Harford County is conservative and that Mary Ann Lisanti is the best they will ever get.

Third, Republicans are putting up formidable candidates in other statewide races. Don't sleep on Barry Glassman for Comptroller. He could easily win.

Fourth, county races. Baltimore County's Johnny O barely won last time and he has firmly placed himself on the left. He is at risk. So is Pittman, who is an Elrich ally and too far left for Anne Arundel county.

Montgomery County will never elect a Republican, but they will elect David Blair, who has more support from Republicans and Independents than he does from leftist Democrats, and is running on a pro-police, lower-taxes platform. The Left will be divided between Elrich and Riemer. Riemer will run nominally to the left of Elrich, attacking Elrich for NIMBY housing policies and throwing lip service to the Defund the Police crowd, which is easy to do when you're a legislator and not an executive. But Elrich will hold on to the labor union and old timer hippie vote, so they will split and Blair will walk away with it easily. Elrich will probably come in third and that will cause some real introspection in the county's true believer leftists.

Fifth, Chris Van Hollen may lose his Senate Seat if 2022 really does end up being a Red Wave year. Especially if Hogan changes his mind and runs, or endorses a prominent Hogan-like candidate.

Maryland is undergoing a self realization that it is actually a pretty conservative, status-quo state. Candidates like Joe Biden win easily over Trump Republicans, but if the 2020 presidential election were between Mitt Romney and Bernie Sanders I could see MD going for Romney. Maryland hasn't even legalized pot yet, and Virginia has. MD hasn't even come close. Most of Maryland's longest serving Democrats were mainstream Democrats in 1995 and havent' shifted ideologically since, whereas similar Democrats in other states have become Republicans. I think this time around, more Maryland voters will realize that they area actually Republicans.

A lot of people assume Maryland is a Blue State and dismiss MD GOP as a ragtag group of hillbillies in Western MD and rednecs on the Eastern Shore. But this state culturally is really not the woke activist culture of TP/SS. The crab-loving, Natty Boh-drinking Maryland culture is actually much closer to Hogan than anyone like Marc Elrich or the D20 Racial Equity and Social Justice Woke delegation.

People of color are happy with Hogan’s pandemic performance - hmmm... As a POC, I and my POC friends must have missed the memo. Vaccine distribution was funneled to communities where there were few POC, while Hogan erroneously claimed that we were vaccine hesitant. Not my guy.

[Anonymous]

I think MD democrats will realize that they allowed the GOP to have one 1 congressman, the GOP chose Andy Harris, and they are not going to trust GOPers with a congressional seat if they're going to be electing loons like that.

[Anonymous]

I've been hearing this from Maryland Republicans for 20 years. Same stuff just didn't names (obviously pre Hogan). They really haven't changed the party taking points it seems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

No. I disagree that Republicans of any stripe are popular in Maryland. And I don't believe Hogan will come of the pandemic as popular as he went in. He had an approval bump early on, but lost it this year.

I, a Democrat, voted for Hogan twice, and would do it again. Moderate here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From your fingertips to God's ears. It would take a miracle to get me to stay here, but even a small red wave would help. To those who don't lik the overuse of "woke," wake up!

It's lazy writing, and that makes for lazy analysis.

Agreed- it, like the term "cancel culture" is no longer descriptive and is just used basically as s slur/ signal because it encompasses basically anything that people left of the speaker does that the speaker doesn't like.

[Anonymous]

If Maryland Democrats are dissatisfied with what the state and local Democrats are offering, they will simply choose more moderate Dems in the primaries.

This would require some coordination from the moderate Democrats, since they have a tendency to split the vote in the primary.

But the idea that Maryland Dams would vote for the GOP in any real numbers, given everything the GOP has stood for in the last four years, strains belief.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been hearing this from Maryland Republicans for 20 years. Same stuff just didn't names (obviously pre Hogan). They really haven't changed the party taking points it seems.

Me too.

[Anonymous]

I do think Blair will win here, but he's a regular Democrat, not a centrist or right of center person at all. I agree the Democratic party is very out of touch if they think Ben Jealous was every a serious contender for governor. We better not make that mistake again. But Maryland is just like everywhere else. The liberals have gotten much more liberal and the conservatives have gotten much more conservative. There is not much appetite for centrists of any sort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do think Blair will win here, but he's a regular Democrat, not a centrist or right of center person at all. I agree the Democratic party is very out of touch if they think Ben Jealous was every a serious contender for governor. We better not make that mistake again. But Maryland is just like everywhere else. The liberals have gotten much more liberal and the conservatives have gotten much more conservative. There is not much appetite for centrists of any sort.

Agree. Would be happy to see Blair replace Elrich, and I think Jealous was a mistake. But Van Hollen losing? Lol. He’s pretty popular, and what weak candidate is the GOP floating to run against him anyway?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

No. I disagree that Republicans of any stripe are popular in Maryland. And I don't believe Hogan will come of the pandemic as popular as he went in. He had an approval bump early on, but lost it this year.

I, a Democrat, voted for Hogan twice, and would do it again. Moderate here!

That's nice, but I think that most MD Democrats have seen that Hogan claims to be pragmatic and hew to the center, but his cancelling of the Red line in Baltimore, dilly-dallying on the Purple line in the DC suburbs (costing taxpayers millions, how fiscally responsible!), vetoing sensible police reforms, and vetoing the Blueprint for Maryland's Future demonstrate that he's little more than your bog standard Republican that fetishizes cutting services to the bone and thinks raising taxes is the 11th Commandment. He governs no differently than a Mike Huckabee or a Greg Abbott, he just has good enough sense to wear a mask and to not spout invective that butters up Evangelicals or QAnon sympathizers.

Also, his vote for Ronald frickin' Reagan in the general was hilariously chickenshit (or, perhaps, par for the course for the modern GOP, but that's a different thread). Hogan is a joke and his position as a sensible moderate within the Republican Party says a lot more about Republicans than it does about his political skills and abilities.

[Anonymous]

Pipe dream.

R's had a chance to retain governorship if Rutherford decided to run, but he declined. He has name recognition. People like Schulz do not.

At the senator/representative level, a lot of voters don't care and just vote for whoever has a (D) next to their name.

At MoCo level, Blair is the best chance. I think you may be right on that one.

Also remember that the "woke liberal" types votes a lot. Most people don't, or they do but dont' follow politics closely. People bringing up little things like Hogan voting for Reagan -- the majority of voters have no idea about this, and probably don't care.

It's this apathy why school board races never see much upheaval. Too many voters don't know or care. They just vote for the incumbent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

That's nice, but I think that most MD Democrats have seen that Hogan claims to be pragmatic and hew to the center, but his cancelling of the Red line in Baltimore, dilly-dallying on the Purple line in the DC suburbs (costing taxpayers millions, how fiscally responsible!), vetoing sensible police reforms, and vetoing the Blueprint for Maryland's Future demonstrate that he's little more than your bog standard Republican that fetishizes cutting services to the bone and thinks raising taxes is the 11th Commandment. He governs no differently than a Mike Huckabee or a Greg Abbott, he just has good enough sense to wear a mask and to not spout invective that butters up Evangelicals or QAnon sympathizers.

Also, his vote for Ronald frickin' Reagan in the general was hilariously chickenshit (or, perhaps, par for the course for the modern GOP, but that's a different thread). Hogan is a joke and his position as a sensible moderate within the Republican Party says a lot more about Republicans than it does about his political skills and abilities.

Well, he actually does govern differently, but that's because he has to deal with a Democratic supermajority in the state legislature, and they don't/didn't. As you say, the only reason he's a "sensible moderate" in the Republican Party is because the Republican Party is increasingly filled with people whose goals are (1) pwning the libs (2) encouraging white people to feel aggrieved (3) sticking their hands in the till.

[Anonymous]

GOP not putting a mass vax site in MoCo early on was a stupid choice.

[Anonymous]

I agree that politicians actually competing for the popular vote, rather than just trying to appeal to the more extremist elements of their base, is a good thing.

I also think that MoCo has not been a great example of left-wing governance. The failure to open schools for more than a year was a debacle.

On the other hand, Hogan has really not covered himself in glory by failing to provide enough vaccines in MoCo while Hagerstown and Salisbury are awash with them. We are a million educated well-off people, and we vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree that politicians actually competing for the popular vote, rather than just trying to appeal to the more extremist elements of their base, is a good thing.

I also think that MoCo has not been a great example of left-wing governance. The failure to open schools for more than a year was a debacle.

On the other hand, Hogan has really not covered himself in glory by failing to provide enough vaccines in MoCo while Hagerstown and Salisbury are awash with them. We are a million educated well-off people, and we vote.

Just one other thing: I think at the Federal level Biden is doing a great job, and things like the infrastructure bill will be very important to Maryland, while the republicans are just obstructing everything. So I think there is zero chance that the senate would go republican.