My predcition and analysis: a Red Wave in Maryland in 2022. (Long post)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

Is it the constant talk of equity itself that bothers you? Or is it the radical way in which the elected officials want to reach that equity? I don't mean that in any type of judgmental way. I'm trying to figure how far removed I am from the reality of most of the county. (I want equity, but want rational policy changes, not revolutionary ones).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

Is it the constant talk of equity itself that bothers you? Or is it the radical way in which the elected officials want to reach that equity? I don't mean that in any type of judgmental way. I'm trying to figure how far removed I am from the reality of most of the county. (I want equity, but want rational policy changes, not revolutionary ones).

A combination of those two things. Language matters. Equality and equity are two different things. Equality (as in all men are created equal) means everyone gets a fair shot and equal treatment; equity means everyone has the same stuff. We are all for government to be enforcers of equality, but we get uncomfortable when the objective function of government shifts to equity. Equity as an objective is fine when it comes to wealth distribution (within reason), but goes way too far when the government starts picking winners and losers based on skin color and the absurd, pseudo-scientific concept of ethnicity. The related concept of antiracism states that any inequity *must* be due to racism, and if you disagree, you are a racist / white supremacist. While Elrich et al haven't stated those objectives plainly, it's clearly driving policy, and it's getting worse year-over-year. This has infected the schools, public and private, and well-meaning white liberals simply accept these tenets without question, probably due to some combination of self-loathing and virtue signaling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am a reliably democratic vote, consider myself moderate leaning liberal. Live in MoCo. Cant remember that last time I voted republican, if ever, even when I don’t love the democratic candidate.

I am livid at the decisions on school reopening and extremely thankful to Hogan for pushing schools districts to reopen. It made me realize that I would like to live in a state with divided government because it is most likely to result in moderate policies.

I am absolutely open to voting republican next election at the state level. I know several other women (all mothers of school age children, all angry at Elrich and thankful to Hogan for pushing reopening, all democrats) who have expressed similar views. I don’t agree that (Maryland) will turn republican, but I think Hogan came out of this looking better than expected.

FWIW, I am a POC.

I agree with this. Reopening schools is a key issue for many of us, and MoCo demonstrated pretty clearly that they care about teachers unions much more than kids.

The responsibility of any union is to care first and foremost about it’s dues-paying membership. Last I checked, students weren’t members, don’t pay dues, and aren’t represented by the union. Keeping schools closed/in remote learning until we reach a 100% vaccination-rate in children is best for the health of their members. Teachers already sacrifice enough already. Do you really expect us to literally DIE now just so you can get your kid out of the house 5 days a week?

I see critical thinking isn’t the forte of trumpanzees like you.

It appears reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. The PP didn't suggest that the union did anything wrong - they are supposed to advocate for their members. The fault lies with the various levels of local government, who didn't push back against the union. The first priority of county government and the Board of Ed is the health and well-being of the students - at a minimum, they need to balance the students' interests with those of the teachers (as articulated by the union). Many people (the PPs and myself included), are not satisfied with the "balance" struck by the local governments. And we're not inclined to vote for county/state politicians whose "leadership" led us here.

Also, the notion that anyone who doesn't support the teachers' union on this (or any other) issue is a "trumpanzee" is a pretty good example of the arrogance of the teachers' union.

Do you understand now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

This is how I feel. I won't be voting for any GOP candidate, no matter how moderate, at the federal level, because the majorities in the House and Senate are too important. At the state and county level, I'll certainly consider it, and be inclined that way.

[Anonymous]

I mean, stranger things have happened.

But I, and many of my MoCo friends and neighbors, would rather cut off a limb than vote for a Republican.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I mean, stranger things have happened.

But I, and many of my MoCo friends and neighbors, would rather cut off a limb than vote for a Republican.

Concur. It's sad that some decent local Republicans will suffer because of the criminal and/or deeply unethical acts of GOP leadership, but this is how it works. Actions have consequences. They are welcome to run as moderate, fiscally conservative Democrats and I'm sure will get a lot of votes!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My gut says that the insufferable wokesters in Takoma Park and Silver Spring will be in for a rude awakening next year as the state makes a decisively rightward turn in electoral politics.

First, the governors race. Despite criticisms coming from Montgomery County over Hogan's handling of the pandemic and vaccine distribution, Hogan's popularity is sky high and especially among people of color. I think people will wake up to the fact that moderate Republican governors are better than leftist candidates, and if the Democrats nominate anyone other than Franchot, then the Republicans will win with someone like Kelly Schulz. She will be seen as a fiscally conservative Republican and Hogan has shown people that Republican governors and bipartisan balance are not so bad.

Second, the state legislature. I think the Democrats will lose the supermajority. The woke left will primary some of the conservative DEmocrats with woke leftists and they will lose to Republicans. People in Silver Spring just don't realize that Harford County is conservative and that Mary Ann Lisanti is the best they will ever get.

Third, Republicans are putting up formidable candidates in other statewide races. Don't sleep on Barry Glassman for Comptroller. He could easily win.

Fourth, county races. Baltimore County's Johnny O barely won last time and he has firmly placed himself on the left. He is at risk. So is Pittman, who is an Elrich ally and too far left for Anne Arundel county.

Montgomery County will never elect a Republican, but they will elect David Blair, who has more support from Republicans and Independents than he does from leftist Democrats, and is running on a pro-police, lower-taxes platform. The Left will be divided between Elrich and Riemer. Riemer will run nominally to the left of Elrich, attacking Elrich for NIMBY housing policies and throwing lip service to the Defund the Police crowd, which is easy to do when you're a legislator and not an executive. But Elrich will hold on to the labor union and old timer hippie vote, so they will split and Blair will walk away with it easily. Elrich will probably come in third and that will cause some real introspection in the county's true believer leftists.

Fifth, Chris Van Hollen may lose his Senate Seat if 2022 really does end up being a Red Wave year. Especially if Hogan changes his mind and runs, or endorses a prominent Hogan-like candidate.

Maryland is undergoing a self realization that it is actually a pretty conservative, status-quo state. Candidates like Joe Biden win easily over Trump Republicans, but if the 2020 presidential election were between Mitt Romney and Bernie Sanders I could see MD going for Romney. Maryland hasn't even legalized pot yet, and Virginia has. MD hasn't even come close. Most of Maryland's longest serving Democrats were mainstream Democrats in 1995 and havent' shifted ideologically since, whereas similar Democrats in other states have become Republicans. I think this time around, more Maryland voters will realize that they area actually Republicans.

A lot of people assume Maryland is a Blue State and dismiss MD GOP as a ragtag group of hillbillies in Western MD and rednecs on the Eastern Shore. But this state culturally is really not the woke activist culture of TP/SS. The crab-loving, Natty Boh-drinking Maryland culture is actually much closer to Hogan than anyone like Marc Elrich or the D20 Racial Equity and Social Justice Woke delegation.

No never going to happen.

Try using another vocaboulary word "woke" look it up. Apparently you need dictionary.com

NEVER EVER AGAIN VOTING REPUBLICAN EX REPUBLICAN.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

Is it the constant talk of equity itself that bothers you? Or is it the radical way in which the elected officials want to reach that equity? I don't mean that in any type of judgmental way. I'm trying to figure how far removed I am from the reality of most of the county. (I want equity, but want rational policy changes, not revolutionary ones).

A combination of those two things. Language matters. Equality and equity are two different things. Equality (as in all men are created equal) means everyone gets a fair shot and equal treatment; equity means everyone has the same stuff. We are all for government to be enforcers of equality, but we get uncomfortable when the objective function of government shifts to equity. Equity as an objective is fine when it comes to wealth distribution (within reason), but goes way too far when the government starts picking winners and losers based on skin color and the absurd, pseudo-scientific concept of ethnicity. The related concept of antiracism states that any inequity *must* be due to racism, and if you disagree, you are a racist / white supremacist. While Elrich et al haven't stated those objectives plainly, it's clearly driving policy, and it's getting worse year-over-year. This has infected the schools, public and private, and well-meaning white liberals simply accept these tenets without question, probably due to some combination of self-loathing and virtue signaling.

And guilt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Not going to happen, OP. You're reading it wrong. Many people are happy with Democratic politics on a local level. You forget that the most vocal critics might draw your attention, but they're not necessarily numerous. The silent majority is reliably democrat, and supports virtual learning and various left-leaning policies.

I actually don’t think that’s entirely true- on the other side you have people that don’t speak out because anyone who does is declared racist or doesn’t believe in science, whatever that means.

I agree with a PP that I would never vote for a republican at the federal level, but tend to vote for more moderate candidates in the primary at the state/local level. I wish there was better participation in the primaries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

Is it the constant talk of equity itself that bothers you? Or is it the radical way in which the elected officials want to reach that equity? I don't mean that in any type of judgmental way. I'm trying to figure how far removed I am from the reality of most of the county. (I want equity, but want rational policy changes, not revolutionary ones).

A combination of those two things. Language matters. Equality and equity are two different things. Equality (as in all men are created equal) means everyone gets a fair shot and equal treatment; equity means everyone has the same stuff. We are all for government to be enforcers of equality, but we get uncomfortable when the objective function of government shifts to equity. Equity as an objective is fine when it comes to wealth distribution (within reason), but goes way too far when the government starts picking winners and losers based on skin color and the absurd, pseudo-scientific concept of ethnicity. The related concept of antiracism states that any inequity *must* be due to racism, and if you disagree, you are a racist / white supremacist. While Elrich et al haven't stated those objectives plainly, it's clearly driving policy, and it's getting worse year-over-year. This has infected the schools, public and private, and well-meaning white liberals simply accept these tenets without question, probably due to some combination of self-loathing and virtue signaling.

Thanks. I appreciate your thoughtful reply. I think part of the problem is that government has been tasked with removing barriers that contribute to disparate incomes, but the common thinking seems to be that it's "only" government that's causing these disparities, rather than understanding lack of wealth, other resources, quality health care, decent housing, education, etc. all come together to make things more difficult in some communities. And government will never be able to fix it all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know that in our house, we will be voting for the most conservative D's in the primaries, and straight R on the state level. Will keep straight-D for national (Congress, Senate). Our experiences with (1) the school opening debacle, and, (2) the consistent, unending drumbeat on equity above everything else have made it very clear that MoCo and MD governments need checks. We have been particularly disappointed with Elrich, and several County Council members.

This is how I feel. I won't be voting for any GOP candidate, no matter how moderate, at the federal level, because the majorities in the House and Senate are too important. At the state and county level, I'll certainly consider it, and be inclined that way.

Agree 100%. Radical moderate here.

[Anonymous]

I don't like most of the progressive/woke politics either, but it's going to be a cold day in hell before I vote for any republican that won't completely reject Trumpism and all of its adherents. There is a lot of bad in the Democratic party, but at least they actually care about democracy. Republicans do not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pipe dream.

R's had a chance to retain governorship if Rutherford decided to run, but he declined. He has name recognition. People like Schulz do not.

At the senator/representative level, a lot of voters don't care and just vote for whoever has a (D) next to their name.

At MoCo level, Blair is the best chance. I think you may be right on that one.

Also remember that the "woke liberal" types votes a lot. Most people don't, or they do but dont' follow politics closely. People bringing up little things like Hogan voting for Reagan -- the majority of voters have no idea about this, and probably don't care.

It's this apathy why school board races never see much upheaval. Too many voters don't know or care. They just vote for the incumbent.

Really, what makes you say this? I'm not challenging just curious. All I've heard about 'woke liberal' voting patterns is how the predictured surge of progressive Bernie Bros failed to show up at the polls in primary season.

I think they call it the "Takoma Park Triangle" or somethign like that. So much of MoCo politics is decided by the people living in Takoma Park and Silver Spring. Look at all the at-large Council members -- all from that area. Same with our County Exec. Same with our House member (Raskin). The residents there get heavily involved in local politics, and they vote too.

There was an effort on the last ballot (Nine Districts MoCo) to get rid of at-large districts in the county council, and instead have each seat be for a particular area . It would ensure the growing areas of the county (upcounty, like Clarskburg and Germantown) get fair representation. Well the Council didn't like that, so they added their own ballot question to instead add more seats (district-based) but keep their at-large seats too. Then, since they control the ballot they put their question before the Nine Districts question, even though Nine Districts submitted first. I doubt the Council would have done anything if not for Nine Districts raising the issue and actually getting it on the ballot.

I guess on the plus side, upcounty _will_ get more representation, but at-large seats will still remain in the Takoma Park Triangle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pipe dream.

R's had a chance to retain governorship if Rutherford decided to run, but he declined. He has name recognition. People like Schulz do not.

At the senator/representative level, a lot of voters don't care and just vote for whoever has a (D) next to their name.

At MoCo level, Blair is the best chance. I think you may be right on that one.

Also remember that the "woke liberal" types votes a lot. Most people don't, or they do but dont' follow politics closely. People bringing up little things like Hogan voting for Reagan -- the majority of voters have no idea about this, and probably don't care.

It's this apathy why school board races never see much upheaval. Too many voters don't know or care. They just vote for the incumbent.

Really, what makes you say this? I'm not challenging just curious. All I've heard about 'woke liberal' voting patterns is how the predictured surge of progressive Bernie Bros failed to show up at the polls in primary season.

I think they call it the "Takoma Park Triangle" or somethign like that. So much of MoCo politics is decided by the people living in Takoma Park and Silver Spring. Look at all the at-large Council members -- all from that area. Same with our County Exec. Same with our House member (Raskin). The residents there get heavily involved in local politics, and they vote too.

There was an effort on the last ballot (Nine Districts MoCo) to get rid of at-large districts in the county council, and instead have each seat be for a particular area . It would ensure the growing areas of the county (upcounty, like Clarskburg and Germantown) get fair representation. Well the Council didn't like that, so they added their own ballot question to instead add more seats (district-based) but keep their at-large seats too. Then, since they control the ballot they put their question before the Nine Districts question, even though Nine Districts submitted first. I doubt the Council would have done anything if not for Nine Districts raising the issue and actually getting it on the ballot.

I guess on the plus side, upcounty _will_ get more representation, but at-large seats will still remain in the Takoma Park Triangle.

The Upcounty needs to run good candidates and vote for them. Marilyn Balcombe just announced she’s running. She’s a great candidate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

No. I disagree that Republicans of any stripe are popular in Maryland. And I don't believe Hogan will come of the pandemic as popular as he went in. He had an approval bump early on, but lost it this year.

I, a Democrat, voted for Hogan twice, and would do it again. Moderate here!

That's nice, but I think that most MD Democrats have seen that Hogan claims to be pragmatic and hew to the center, but his cancelling of the Red line in Baltimore, dilly-dallying on the Purple line in the DC suburbs (costing taxpayers millions, how fiscally responsible!), vetoing sensible police reforms, and vetoing the Blueprint for Maryland's Future demonstrate that he's little more than your bog standard Republican that fetishizes cutting services to the bone and thinks raising taxes is the 11th Commandment. He governs no differently than a Mike Huckabee or a Greg Abbott, he just has good enough sense to wear a mask and to not spout invective that butters up Evangelicals or QAnon sympathizers.

Also, his vote for Ronald frickin' Reagan in the general was hilariously chickenshit (or, perhaps, par for the course for the modern GOP, but that's a different thread). Hogan is a joke and his position as a sensible moderate within the Republican Party says a lot more about Republicans than it does about his political skills and abilities.

Thank God he veotoed Kirwin/The Blueprint. It *still* doesnt have a funding source and represents a ten percent increase in the entire state budget, during a pandemic. Yes his veto was overridden, but that is some of the most wasteful spending Ive ever seen in our state's history.

Why would you thank God that he vetoed the blueprint? There were more than enough votes to override, I'm not sure how a symbolic middle finger to legislators is somehow deserving of giving thanks to God, but whatever.

I'll never understand Republicans' kneejerk opposition to public investment. Quality costs money. A well-educated populace benefits the entire state and fosters prosperity. Go take a look at Mississippi, Idaho, or Louisiana as illustrative case studies of what happens when investments in education are an afterthought.