Reply to My predcition and analysis: a Red Wave in Maryland in 2022. (Long post)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My gut says that the insufferable wokesters in Takoma Park and Silver Spring will be in for a rude awakening next year as the state makes a decisively rightward turn in electoral politics.

First, the governors race. Despite criticisms coming from Montgomery County over Hogan's handling of the pandemic and vaccine distribution, Hogan's popularity is sky high and especially among people of color. I think people will wake up to the fact that moderate Republican governors are better than leftist candidates, and if the Democrats nominate anyone other than Franchot, then the Republicans will win with someone like Kelly Schulz. She will be seen as a fiscally conservative Republican and Hogan has shown people that Republican governors and bipartisan balance are not so bad.

Second, the state legislature. I think the Democrats will lose the supermajority. The woke left will primary some of the conservative DEmocrats with woke leftists and they will lose to Republicans. People in Silver Spring just don't realize that Harford County is conservative and that Mary Ann Lisanti is the best they will ever get.

Third, Republicans are putting up formidable candidates in other statewide races. Don't sleep on Barry Glassman for Comptroller. He could easily win.

Fourth, county races. Baltimore County's Johnny O barely won last time and he has firmly placed himself on the left. He is at risk. So is Pittman, who is an Elrich ally and too far left for Anne Arundel county.

Montgomery County will never elect a Republican, but they will elect David Blair, who has more support from Republicans and Independents than he does from leftist Democrats, and is running on a pro-police, lower-taxes platform. The Left will be divided between Elrich and Riemer. Riemer will run nominally to the left of Elrich, attacking Elrich for NIMBY housing policies and throwing lip service to the Defund the Police crowd, which is easy to do when you're a legislator and not an executive. But Elrich will hold on to the labor union and old timer hippie vote, so they will split and Blair will walk away with it easily. Elrich will probably come in third and that will cause some real introspection in the county's true believer leftists.

Fifth, Chris Van Hollen may lose his Senate Seat if 2022 really does end up being a Red Wave year. Especially if Hogan changes his mind and runs, or endorses a prominent Hogan-like candidate.

Maryland is undergoing a self realization that it is actually a pretty conservative, status-quo state. Candidates like Joe Biden win easily over Trump Republicans, but if the 2020 presidential election were between Mitt Romney and Bernie Sanders I could see MD going for Romney. Maryland hasn't even legalized pot yet, and Virginia has. MD hasn't even come close. Most of Maryland's longest serving Democrats were mainstream Democrats in 1995 and havent' shifted ideologically since, whereas similar Democrats in other states have become Republicans. I think this time around, more Maryland voters will realize that they area actually Republicans.

A lot of people assume Maryland is a Blue State and dismiss MD GOP as a ragtag group of hillbillies in Western MD and rednecs on the Eastern Shore. But this state culturally is really not the woke activist culture of TP/SS. The crab-loving, Natty Boh-drinking Maryland culture is actually much closer to Hogan than anyone like Marc Elrich or the D20 Racial Equity and Social Justice Woke delegation. [/quote]

People of color are happy with Hogan’s pandemic performance - hmmm... As a POC, I and my POC friends must have missed the memo. Vaccine distribution was funneled to communities where there were few POC, while Hogan erroneously claimed that we were vaccine hesitant. Not my guy. [/quote]

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