When will Northern Virginia hit its peak?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

[Anonymous]

I am hoping we hit out peak in April. But that means for May we will be spending just like we did March.

If my hopes come true, and we peak in April, and start to decline by May, I'm thinking June is the recovery time.

Then July maybe things start getting looser. But there is no guarantee.

[Anonymous]

Someone posted this on another thread, projections by state. I realize this is the entire state of VA, not just northern, but it projects peak for May 17th (as opposed to DC and Maryland which have projected peaks in mid-April):

http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am hoping we hit out peak in April. But that means for May we will be spending just like we did March.

If my hopes come true, and we peak in April, and start to decline by May, I'm thinking June is the recovery time.

Then July maybe things start getting looser. But there is no guarantee.

Things will definitely loosen before July!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Weather is your strategy for minimizing now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

We are 2 wks behind NYC. That is where the projection was derived.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

It is all relative speaking. The hotter countries don't have the virus numbers as the colder countries. It's never a case that viruses don't spread in hot countries at all. But heat does seem to hinder the growth rate. It could be that the hot states in the US are mainly being infected by transplants from cold states (Florida is blaming it on refugees from New York). It's too soon to make sweeping declarations one way or another.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

DP Sure isn’t! Scientists disagree vehemently. It’s hope.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.

lol, have you been in Arlington lately?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

Yep it’s just people hoping and wishing or what people call happy talk. Given the evidence it will not slow during the summer months. It’s spreading in tropical countries. Also in China there is a 10-30% re-infection rate. Virginia should have a higher curve because the state did not shut down quickly and many people are not taking social distancing seriously(go look at the Arlington social distancing thread).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

It is all relative speaking. The hotter countries don't have the virus numbers as the colder countries. It's never a case that viruses don't spread in hot countries at all. But heat does seem to hinder the growth rate. It could be that the hot states in the US are mainly being infected by transplants from cold states (Florida is blaming it on refugees from New York). It's too soon to make sweeping declarations one way or another.

They should have about a gazillion cases in India with their high population, lack of sanitation, poverty, and urban population density. An article I found dated yesterday said they had 1,024 cases and 27 deaths. The problem is it’s not warm enough long enough in much of the US to make a difference. You need a truly tropical climate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

It is all relative speaking. The hotter countries don't have the virus numbers as the colder countries. It's never a case that viruses don't spread in hot countries at all. But heat does seem to hinder the growth rate. It could be that the hot states in the US are mainly being infected by transplants from cold states (Florida is blaming it on refugees from New York). It's too soon to make sweeping declarations one way or another.

They should have about a gazillion cases in India with their high population, lack of sanitation, poverty, and urban population density. An article I found dated yesterday said they had 1,024 cases and 27 deaths. The problem is it’s not warm enough long enough in much of the US to make a difference. You need a truly tropical climate.

You are talking about confirmed cases in India. We all know that the US stats about confirmed cases is the tip of the iceberg and it's even worse in India in terms of stats. They have no capacity to test. People are dying at home from pneumonia, uncounted. It is going to be a disaster in India.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/pessimistic-indian-doctors-brace-for-tsunami-of-virus-cases

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The good news is that northern Virginia might have done a good enough job with social distancing that we don't have the huge peak that NY is working up to. The bad news is that means we will have more of a long, steady low curve. Great for preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Not great for any quick return to our normal lives.

+1

There is a thread on things escalating in Arlington hospitals, and I have not seen one about other NoVa jurisdictions. Makes sense given the difference in population density.

I work in Arlington Hospital as a nurse. It is not packed. It is not escalating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most projections are showing sometime between mid-April to mid-May. By June, the warm weather should help contain the spread... for now.

Really? Is this evidence based?

Coronaviruses are cold viruses they generally do the most damage in cold weather. Look at the SARS pandemic. I’m not saying it WILL die down, but from what we know about coronaviruses, it should.

So how do you account for the way this covid 19 has spread in the Southern Hemisphere? Or how well it’s spreading in the southern U.S.? It’s in the 70s-80s throughout Louisiana and Georgia right now where this is currently spreading like wildfire.

I have seen this diagram discussed on other forums and so far the COVID-19 is mirroring exactly the SARS progress. So far - which doesn't mean it will always be that case.

That is reassuring I guess but still didn’t answer my question. If some of the hard hit areas of the world are basically experiencing summer weather right now but the virus is projected to go away in summer something doesn’t add up?

Yep it’s just people hoping and wishing or what people call happy talk. Given the evidence it will not slow during the summer months. It’s spreading in tropical countries. Also in China there is a 10-30% re-infection rate. Virginia should have a higher curve because the state did not shut down quickly and many people are not taking social distancing seriously(go look at the Arlington social distancing thread).

Please cite your 10-30% reinfection rate data. I watched an interview with Dr Fauci less than a week ago, and he still seems to believe the risk of reinfection is very low. He’s just not certain on how long immunity lasts.