Reply to Ukraine war - which side is winning?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I'm not sure that we could describe either side as "winning" since the objectives were never clear from the Russian side.

In the early days of the invasion, media outlets were predicting the extremely short timeline (a few days) where they predicted Kyiv would fall.  That...obviously hasn't happened.  Are we to then assume that any outcome where Kyiv doesn't fall into the hands of the Russians a win for Ukrainians? [/quote]

Yes. Absolutely yes.

I think most observers understand that this will not end in a full military victory for Ukraine, in that they will almost certainly end the war with less territory than they had in 2014 and maybe even less than they had on February 23, 2022. But they will also exist as a potential EU candidate and a full member of Europe in all other sense.

To the degree that Russia's stated objective was regime change, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted a show of military force, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted to have any operational readiness for the next five years, they've lose. To the extent that Russia wanted a "rally around the flag" phenomenon to carry Russia past Putin's upcoming demise, I suspect they've lost as well.

[/quote]

Your last point, the Russian people are losing patience with the conflict? [/quote]

It's SO HARD to tell, but yes. You have to understand that Russia's been lying about the war domestically since the outset, and claiming that conscripts would not be sent to Ukraine. The number of 100% confirmed deaths is around 3,000. The real numbers are expected to be about treble that if not more. Russia is also losing very senior military leadership. Taken together, you are going to have the truth trickling out, either from families who lost their sons or from "political society" who starts noticing some folks missing from the meetings.

If you take a historical lens, I think there's an analogy here to Chernobyl. The Chernobyl meltdown and the associated mishandling/obfuscation by the Soviet government, didn't lead to immediate public opinion changes but in the longer-term they wildly undermined faith in the regime. [/quote]

3k ??

Try 10 times that number killed in action:

[img]https://euroweeklynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/losses.jpeg[/img][/quote]

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