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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think this is a stunning loss for Russia. [b]I do not think that Ukraine will concede any territory. Not when they still have willing fighters and the world willing to arm them. [/b]And I think that this war has decimated the Russian war machine and also destroyed its economy for the long term. The only countries who will be trading with Russia in a few years will be other countries like China that should be next on our list to cut off from world trade anyway.

This invasion was a very bad mistake from Russia. Hopefully China is watching closely.[/quote]

I too believe Ukraine will fight until there's no more soliders left. My biggest concern, however, is not Ukraine's resolve, it's whether west's unity and willingness to provide weapons will last. We are already beginning to see fractures - France and Germany in particular. This plays into Putin's calculus on how the war will play out. Even here in US, Ukraine is no longer evening news headlines. West has very short memories. [/quote]

I think you are right to raise the attention span question, but I think you are overestimating the role of public opinion. At this point, it really matters less what leads the evening news so long as policymakers understand the threat that Russia represents to the world order.

You've also seen sanctions moving forward even as public attention has drifted. The EU tightened oil sanctions this week, banning Russian oil imports that arrive by sea. Meanwhile other countries, including Germany, have said they will also stop importing Russian oil by land. That basically decimates Russia's oil exports to Europe, leaving them with Hungary and Slovakia.

Finally, I think public attention is going to swing back once the criminal tribunals get going with presentation of war crimes evidence. It's pretty harrowing, and the brutality of the Russian occupiers is going to shock the imaginations of a lot of folks. [/quote]

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