Official Government Shutdown 2023 Thread

[Anonymous]

2 month shutdown. With so many “excepted” service and no uncertainty about if employees will be paid, this will have minimal disruption for a long time to Joe taxpayer.

Contractors will feel pain, sadly, but they won’t make too much a fuss against their customer.

[Anonymous]

100% a shutdown will happen. It will range from 10 to 36 days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:100% a shutdown will happen. It will range from 10 to 36 days.

I don’t think it will be longer than 7 days. This is different from 2019 - there is no Trump at the helm, no equivalent of “build the wall” to whip up the right-wing media. You just have 10 or so dummies who are all hated by their colleagues, who will fold when they wake up on Tuesday to mounting public pressure and no adulation from Fox. (Fox is not anti-shutdown but is absolutely not whipping up pro-shutdown energy.) For all McCarthy had been criticized for “caving” he will be able to individually pressure and cajole, and will get his votes by next Friday.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% a shutdown will happen. It will range from 10 to 36 days.

I don’t think it will be longer than 7 days. This is different from 2019 - there is no Trump at the helm, no equivalent of “build the wall” to whip up the right-wing media. You just have 10 or so dummies who are all hated by their colleagues, who will fold when they wake up on Tuesday to mounting public pressure and no adulation from Fox. (Fox is not anti-shutdown but is absolutely not whipping up pro-shutdown energy.) For all McCarthy had been criticized for “caving” he will be able to individually pressure and cajole, and will get his votes by next Friday.

(btw I correctly predicted covid too, so I have a good track record!)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Hill says House approved DOD funding bill. Is this one that would be approved by the Senate. I know this won’t stop the shutdown but is it progress at least to pay the military?

There's enough in there the Dems in the Senate might find objectionable, so no telling if it will pass or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% a shutdown will happen. It will range from 10 to 36 days.

I don’t think it will be longer than 7 days. This is different from 2019 - there is no Trump at the helm, no equivalent of “build the wall” to whip up the right-wing media. You just have 10 or so dummies who are all hated by their colleagues, who will fold when they wake up on Tuesday to mounting public pressure and no adulation from Fox. (Fox is not anti-shutdown but is absolutely not whipping up pro-shutdown energy.) For all McCarthy had been criticized for “caving” he will be able to individually pressure and cajole, and will get his votes by next Friday.

(btw I correctly predicted covid too, so I have a good track record!)

27 signed the letter yesterday, not 10. Plus you have Reps out and now Senate will need VP to come in and vote. Hot mess. Longer than 7 days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So the House voted 3-1 for a Ukraine aid bill but failed to pass their version of the Ag approps bill?

What the hell is going on? We definitely headed to shutdown, unless maybe Mccarthy is just trying to show how ridiculous the crazies are so he can rely on Dem votes for the CR and not lose the chair

Just as a quick breakdown. House Ukraine bill vote was to show Senate they WILL support Ukraine spending but not as part of CR. Ag approps bill has been trouble since it was released. It is the Christmas tree so lots of additional spending and pet projects in there that Freedom folks (and others) won't support.

So basically House wants CR which contains border but NOT Ukraine. Senate will vote tomorrow on CR that contains Ukraine but NOT border. Senate CR will come over to House and fail. IF House can get a CR to pass it will fail the Senate.

Also Freedom Caucus said they won't vote for a clean CR -- which is the default positon. When in doubt just continue on like nothing has changed.

My prediction is a good 14-21 day shutdown. Only way it is shorter is if they can oust McCarthy. If he stays they will keep doing 30-45 day CRs after this first very painful one.

[Anonymous]

State's leadership says money through approximately October 9th. Everyone comes in next week + then the furloughs begin.

[Anonymous]

If McCarthy is ousted during the lapse, then wouldn’t that auger an even longer shutdown as the House would first need to select a Speaker?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:State's leadership says money through approximately October 9th. Everyone comes in next week + then the furloughs begin.

State is not the only Dep’t using carryover funds to finish the pay period.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If McCarthy is ousted during the lapse, then wouldn’t that auger an even longer shutdown as the House would first need to select a Speaker?

Maybe. Probably, but maybe not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% a shutdown will happen. It will range from 10 to 36 days.

I don’t think it will be longer than 7 days. This is different from 2019 - there is no Trump at the helm, no equivalent of “build the wall” to whip up the right-wing media. You just have 10 or so dummies who are all hated by their colleagues, who will fold when they wake up on Tuesday to mounting public pressure and no adulation from Fox. (Fox is not anti-shutdown but is absolutely not whipping up pro-shutdown energy.) For all McCarthy had been criticized for “caving” he will be able to individually pressure and cajole, and will get his votes by next Friday.

(btw I correctly predicted covid too, so I have a good track record!)

27 signed the letter yesterday, not 10. Plus you have Reps out and now Senate will need VP to come in and vote. Hot mess. Longer than 7 days.

I think McCarthy will have the votes by Friday but could take a day or two longer to hold the vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Hill says House approved DOD funding bill. Is this one that would be approved by the Senate. I know this won’t stop the shutdown but is it progress at least to pay the military?

Maybe, but it sounds like there are things in the bill that may be unacceptable to the Senate (DEI related and the like).

[Anonymous]

Can you quit your job during a shut down?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can you quit your job during a shut down?

If I get the offer I’ve been waiting for, I am. I’m planning to clean my office out on Monday, just in case.