Reply to What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

[b]Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.[/b]

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade. [/quote]
Can we stop with this lie please?  First things first, only three percent of those Americans who voted for Donald Trump are black.  Not just black men.  All blacks.  Three percent.  That's it.  "Other" weighs in at five percent.  Eighty-four percent of Trump's voters are white.  Those are the people who should own the next four years: [url]https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-gained-some-minority-voters-but-the-gop-is-hardly-a-multiracial-coalition[/url].

Regarding black men, they didn't move increasingly toward the GOP.  Did you know there's a huge divide between foreign-born black men and American-born black men?  In 2020, the former voted for Trump at a thirty percent clip.  American-born black men?  Only ten percent: [url]https://www.brookings.edu/articles/not-like-us-exploring-foreign-born-black-mens-distinct-voting-patterns-in-the-2020-election/[/url]. That's a huge difference, and no one is talking about it.  If there was any movement of black male voters toward Trump in 2024, immigration from Africa and the Caribbean explains it more than anything the GOP as a party has to offer.  Trump's gains with black men -- small that they were -- is unique to him and him only (especially in Wisconsin; that I can't explain).  Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of Tommy Tuberville's mouth resonates with black men?[/quote]

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