Here’s Why Asian Americans Shifted Right by 9 points

[Anonymous]

My analysis of precinct-level voting data in four major urban areas shows that the exit polls may actually be understating the degree to which Asian Americans shifted to the right. Using census data, I identified majority-Asian precincts in these areas and compared the Republican margin of victory (or loss) between the 2024 and 2020 elections. The results are much more stark: Majority-Asian precincts in New York City, for instance, saw a rightward shift of 31 percentage points. Precincts in Dallas and Fort Bend counties in Texas both saw rightward shifts between 17 and 20 points. And precincts in Chicago saw a 23-point shift to the right.

If the rightward shift among Asian American voters is real and significant, what is behind it?

When asked, neither APIAVote nor Asian Americans Advancing Justice were able to provide an explanation. But several Republican-leaning Asian American voters I spoke with were not surprised by the shift.

'Wrong side of brown’

Asian American voters also told me that they were turned off by the Democrats’ racial equity policies. The Democratic Party heavily leaned into racial equity following George Floyd’s death and the riots that followed in 2020. Democrats made bold promises to reduce racial disparities in economic and other outcomes, arguing that current racial disparities are the result of decades of systemic discrimination that must be addressed. However, race-conscious policies like affirmative action often ended up pitting Asian Americans against other minority groups. For many Asian Americans, they end up on the “wrong side of brown,” as Nomani puts it.

Noeth told me that Asian American parents were “fed up” with affirmative action policies in school admissions. Sue Ghosh Stricklett, a former Trump administration appointee, said the Harvard affirmative action case and the removal of merit-based admissions at Thomas Jefferson High School in Virginia both “ignited passionate activism” among Asian American parents. In Fairfax County, Virginia, Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology changed its merit-based admissions policy in a bid to “decrease the representation of Asian Americans” in favor of other racial minorities.

“The injustice of being labeled as ‘privileged,’ ‘selfish,’ ‘cheaters,’ ‘overrepresented,’ ‘white adjacent,’ and ‘resource hoarders’ hurt very deeply,” Nomani, who is also a parent of a Thomas Jefferson graduate, said. It led to “political mobilization and a reconsideration of long-standing political loyalties.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/11/19/heres_why_asian_americans_shifted_right_151965.html

[Anonymous]

This tracks. Most of 1st-gen Asian immigrants are here to make money and create a better life for themselves and their children. Their cultures value upward mobility and family. Democracy, access to abortion, gay/trans rights, equity, and other Dem issues are probably far down on their list of priorities. And I say this as a Dem who knows lots of SE Asians and Indians.

[Anonymous]

Makes sense, but I'd be curious to know more about the breakdown e.g Vietnamese/Chinese/Indian/Japanese/Korean, etc and SES to better understand.

[Anonymous]

Anyone following the TJ and Havard stories knew the outcome was predictable.

[Anonymous]

Sounds right. Many of these cultures also don’t have strong democratic traditions and have greater allegiance to family rather than state or national government. “Ask not what your country can do for you…” has no relevance for them, so Trump is a perfect answer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Makes sense, but I'd be curious to know more about the breakdown e.g Vietnamese/Chinese/Indian/Japanese/Korean, etc and SES to better understand.

It would be interesting to know whether the data included South Asian as well as East Asian Americans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anyone following the TJ and Havard stories knew the outcome was predictable.

I couldn’t really be bothered to follow that stuff, but what was the end result? They won their case, right?
Does Harvard have more Asian students now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This tracks. Most of 1st-gen Asian immigrants are here to make money and create a better life for themselves and their children. Their cultures value upward mobility and family. Democracy, access to abortion, gay/trans rights, equity, and other Dem issues are probably far down on their list of priorities. And I say this as a Dem who knows lots of SE Asians and Indians.

Exactly. They don't necessarily care about same "equity" fluff as other "minorities" might.

[Anonymous]

Truly Asian people are very set against blacks. I see it among my colleagues everyday.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Makes sense, but I'd be curious to know more about the breakdown e.g Vietnamese/Chinese/Indian/Japanese/Korean, etc and SES to better understand.

It would be interesting to know whether the data included South Asian as well as East Asian Americans.

Not sure but here’s what happened in Edison, NJ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Truly Asian people are very set against blacks. I see it among my colleagues everyday.

I think it's the other way around - Dem politicians pander to black voters and abandon Asian voters and many Asians are fed up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Truly Asian people are very set against blacks. I see it among my colleagues everyday.

I think it's the other way around - Dem politicians pander to black voters and abandon Asian voters and many Asians are fed up.

But didn’t pander enough.
Black Twitter has been sh—- talking do-nothing dems for awhile.
Republicans have it so good. They don’t have to do anything for anyone.
Democrats have to do everything for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Truly Asian people are very set against blacks. I see it among my colleagues everyday.

I think it's the other way around - Dem politicians pander to black voters and abandon Asian voters and many Asians are fed up.

But didn’t pander enough.
Black Twitter has been sh—- talking do-nothing dems for awhile.
Republicans have it so good. They don’t have to do anything for anyone.
Democrats have to do everything for everyone.

Oof. So accurate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Truly Asian people are very set against blacks. I see it among my colleagues everyday.

I think it's the other way around - Dem politicians pander to black voters and abandon Asian voters and many Asians are fed up.

But for Black Americans marching and getting assisinated for everyone's civil rights, these Asians would still be colored. It's only a matter of time before the MAGA crowd thank them (especially Vivek) for their service as useful idiots for white supremacy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Makes sense, but I'd be curious to know more about the breakdown e.g Vietnamese/Chinese/Indian/Japanese/Korean, etc and SES to better understand.

It would be interesting to know whether the data included South Asian as well as East Asian Americans.

Not sure but here’s what happened in Edison, NJ.

It’s not that surprising, after speaking to my family and friends. Many Indian-Americans, especially the more recently arrivals venerate Modi and see in Trump a leader in the same vein. All the equity stuff also doesn’t help with many of these folks. They are more interested in making money for themselves and bettering their own families. The traditional grip Democrats have had on this group is loosening.