Remote school? No vaccine for under 12 until mid-winter

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

NP. Sounds like you should keep your kid home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.

Are you all watching what's going on in the UK and Israel? Kids are getting infected in schools. As for being masked at school, what about the lunch policy and everyone eating in the cafeteria together?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.

Are you all watching what's going on in the UK and Israel? Kids are getting infected in schools. As for being masked at school, what about the lunch policy and everyone eating in the cafeteria together?

DP. I don’t know how many more times you need to be told this but — keep your kid sequestered at home if that’s what you want. Leave the rest of us alone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.

What? My claim was 10%, not all of them, with a bullet points list of aggravating circumstances that would make it likely. Then it turned out that the former FDA commissioner, who hasn't publicly said one inaccurate thing since 2020, had just been on tv that morning to deadpan say every unvaccinated person without a prior infection will get it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.

(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Your turn.

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.

I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.

What? My claim was 10%, not all of them, with a bullet points list of aggravating circumstances that would make it likely. Then it turned out that the former FDA commissioner, who hasn't publicly said one inaccurate thing since 2020, had just been on tv that morning to deadpan say every unvaccinated person without a prior infection will get it.

You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

Yes I was (yes it is), yes it does.
I fundamentally disagree with you that what Gottlieb said was anything but the outcome of his non-political analysis of the situation.
In the same short interview, he brought up the need for better masks. This suggests he believes delta would spread among 25 unvaccinated people wearing surgical or cloth masks indoors for 8 hours a day five days a week. But please continue nitpicking at my reasonable analysis and trying to discredit his. It isn't hurting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

Yes I was (yes it is), yes it does.
I fundamentally disagree with you that what Gottlieb said was anything but the outcome of his non-political analysis of the situation.
In the same short interview, he brought up the need for better masks. This suggests he believes delta would spread among 25 unvaccinated people wearing surgical or cloth masks indoors for 8 hours a day five days a week. But please continue nitpicking at my reasonable analysis and trying to discredit his. It isn't hurting.

Not trying to hurt you. I still think you are alarmist regarding in school spread and especially its consequences (hundreds of kids with debilitating long Covid). My opinion might change if we see rampant community spread.

And even if you were right about the spread in schools, they should still reopen. The manifold harms and long-term ripple effects of closed schools still outweigh the potential risks from Covid to kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

Yes I was (yes it is), yes it does.
I fundamentally disagree with you that what Gottlieb said was anything but the outcome of his non-political analysis of the situation.
In the same short interview, he brought up the need for better masks. This suggests he believes delta would spread among 25 unvaccinated people wearing surgical or cloth masks indoors for 8 hours a day five days a week. But please continue nitpicking at my reasonable analysis and trying to discredit his. It isn't hurting.

Not trying to hurt you. I still think you are alarmist regarding in school spread and especially its consequences (hundreds of kids with debilitating long Covid). My opinion might change if we see rampant community spread.

And even if you were right about the spread in schools, they should still reopen. The manifold harms and long-term ripple effects of closed schools still outweigh the potential risks from Covid to kids.

And so, a few pages later, the answer to my question,

Basically, are we ok with a couple hundred DCPS kids having debilitating long-covid for a few years, because socialization is important and because in-person school is better than distance learning?

is yes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

Yes I was (yes it is), yes it does.
I fundamentally disagree with you that what Gottlieb said was anything but the outcome of his non-political analysis of the situation.
In the same short interview, he brought up the need for better masks. This suggests he believes delta would spread among 25 unvaccinated people wearing surgical or cloth masks indoors for 8 hours a day five days a week. But please continue nitpicking at my reasonable analysis and trying to discredit his. It isn't hurting.

Not trying to hurt you. I still think you are alarmist regarding in school spread and especially its consequences (hundreds of kids with debilitating long Covid). My opinion might change if we see rampant community spread.

And even if you were right about the spread in schools, they should still reopen. The manifold harms and long-term ripple effects of closed schools still outweigh the potential risks from Covid to kids.

And so, a few pages later, the answer to my question,

Basically, are we ok with a couple hundred DCPS kids having debilitating long-covid for a few years, because socialization is important and because in-person school is better than distance learning?

is yes.

Um, no. I am not assuming there will be hundreds of kids suffering from debilitating Covid symptoms for years, even if there spread in schools; that is your alarmist prediction. It is not supported by any data or even by Dr. Gottlieb’s statement. I would also not assume that spread among kids, if it is as rampant as you predict, would be lower if schools remained closed or partially closed. Kids would mingle elsewhere, either in other childcare situations or in private homes. I suppose yours might be safer from Covid (as would mine) and that’s what you care about, but overall the spread would still happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Translation:

A different paper about a different thing by different people wasn't accurate, so I don't trust any papers! I like to make alarming statements, claiming some sort of scientific basis but then when confronted with actual science, I say that I don't trust science. I do not know how science works, because I only like confirmation bias.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

Yes, it's unreasonable to expect 10% of DCPS students to catch Covid at school. There is absolutely zero evidence for that scenario in the plethora of data we have from around the world, pre-vaccines and often without masks or distancing. Absolutely none.

but it is VERY FUN to make up numbers and then to become frightened of them!