Reply to Remote school? No vaccine for under 12 until mid-winter

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.[/quote]

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination. [/quote]

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.[/quote]

Same poster. Also note: 
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards, 
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards, 
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring, 
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.
 
[/quote]

10%?  Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?[/quote]

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.[/quote]
4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.
 [/quote]

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn. [/quote]

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn. [/quote]

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn. [/quote]
(A different poster helpfully subbed for me in my previous turn regarding the upcoming winter).
Turns out "my" 10% is a wishful optimistic projection.
Scott Gottlieb says 'all unvaccinated, never infected' will get it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fda-scott-gottlieb-delta-variant-covid-unvaccinated_n_60f49edee4b00ef8761d99c3

[quote]The former director of the Food and Drug Administration predicted Sunday that “most” unvaccinated Americans who haven’t already had COVID-19 will contract the delta variant — and it will be the “most serious” virus of their lives.

“This virus is so contagious, this variant is so contagious ... that most people will either get vaccinated or have been previously infected or they will get this delta variant,” Scott Gottlieb warned in an interview on “Face the Nation” on CBS.[/quote]
Your turn.
[/quote]

Pretty sure he had adults in mind when he said it would be the most serious virus of their lives. And clearly he made this statement in order to convince anti-vaxers to get their shots.[/quote]
I'm not drawing from the quote anything about the severity of the acute infection in mids, but about the odds of infection - he says 100%. I haven't heard hyperbole from Gottlieb at any point since January 2020.[/quote]

Did the interviewer follow up to ask if he thought all of the young kids were going to catch it at school if they open fully? Because that was your claim. Kids do have a lower likelihood of infection, and I highly doubt transmission will be this rampant at school when masked. His whole statement sounded squarely focused on unvaccinated adults, in an effort to convince them.[/quote]

Are you all watching what's going on in the UK and Israel? Kids are getting infected in schools. As for being masked at school, what about the lunch policy and everyone eating in the cafeteria together?[/quote]

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