Remote school? No vaccine for under 12 until mid-winter

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:
You were using his statement to corroborate your prediction (which was admittedly less dire but still alarmist) about spread in schools, implying it proves that your estimate was conservative. I am putting his statement in context (a campaign to convince adults to vaccinate) and am wondering what he would say with regard to in school spread among young children.

Yes I was (yes it is), yes it does.
I fundamentally disagree with you that what Gottlieb said was anything but the outcome of his non-political analysis of the situation.
In the same short interview, he brought up the need for better masks. This suggests he believes delta would spread among 25 unvaccinated people wearing surgical or cloth masks indoors for 8 hours a day five days a week. But please continue nitpicking at my reasonable analysis and trying to discredit his. It isn't hurting.

Not trying to hurt you. I still think you are alarmist regarding in school spread and especially its consequences (hundreds of kids with debilitating long Covid). My opinion might change if we see rampant community spread.

And even if you were right about the spread in schools, they should still reopen. The manifold harms and long-term ripple effects of closed schools still outweigh the potential risks from Covid to kids.

And so, a few pages later, the answer to my question,

Basically, are we ok with a couple hundred DCPS kids having debilitating long-covid for a few years, because socialization is important and because in-person school is better than distance learning?

is yes.

Um, no. I am not assuming there will be hundreds of kids suffering from debilitating Covid symptoms for years, even if there spread in schools; that is your alarmist prediction. It is not supported by any data or even by Dr. Gottlieb’s statement. I would also not assume that spread among kids, if it is as rampant as you predict, would be lower if schools remained closed or partially closed. Kids would mingle elsewhere, either in other childcare situations or in private homes. I suppose yours might be safer from Covid (as would mine) and that’s what you care about, but overall the spread would still happen.

Yeah, I'll also add that if Gottlieb said that 100% of the unvaccinated would get it, and we take him completely at his word with no nuance, keeping schools closed wouldn't change anything. There would still be a 100% infection rate in children, school or no school. So lets have school.