Remote school? No vaccine for under 12 until mid-winter

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

Yes, it's unreasonable to expect 10% of DCPS students to catch Covid at school. There is absolutely zero evidence for that scenario in the plethora of data we have from around the world, pre-vaccines and often without masks or distancing. Absolutely none.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

You could absolutely have at least a controlled study within the time frame we are dealing with right now. If they are asking a hundred kids with previous Covid about their symptoms after six weeks, it wouldn't be so hard to ask another 100 kids without Covid if they experience the same rate of runny noses and fatigue.

that’s basically what the research did and found little evidence of long covid. I don’t think that’s considered a rct?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

You could absolutely have at least a controlled study within the time frame we are dealing with right now. If they are asking a hundred kids with previous Covid about their symptoms after six weeks, it wouldn't be so hard to ask another 100 kids without Covid if they experience the same rate of runny noses and fatigue.

that’s basically what the research did and found little evidence of long covid. I don’t think that’s considered a rct?

There was one study that got referenced a lot, which didn’t even do that. You’re right, it’s not an RCT, but it’s better than no control group at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

You were raising the specter of hundreds of kids with debilitating long Covid. Was that what that least alarmist study showed? Were the cases asymptomatic, as you postulated in your scenario?

And your 10% figure is still made up. We don’t know how much Delta is going to worsen spread in schools when masks are worn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don't think the under 12 vaccine will make much of a difference. Many parents will decline because the risk of the vaccine is greater than the risk of the virus to most kids. That's because the risk of the virus to kids is SO FREAKING LOW.

We have to stop thinking of the under 12 vaccine as some sort of game changer.

+1

[Anonymous]

Delta sounds quite virulent and impacting kids more? So annoyed that everyone who can get a vaccine hasn't, including in DC where some wards are really lagging. Wake up!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Delta sounds quite virulent and impacting kids more? So annoyed that everyone who can get a vaccine hasn't, including in DC where some wards are really lagging. Wake up!

There is no evidence that delta impacts kids more. Kids are proportionally more affected because they are the least vaccinated group.

[Anonymous]

My two children are in a DC daycare and preschool that was open for the 20-21 school year. COVID spread in both of their classrooms to at least one other person prior to classroom closure and quarantine, and these were small classes of only 8-12, cohorted and masked per OSSE rules. I assume that COVID will spread again in each classroom next year. I am hoping for the best as my older child starts K in DCPS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a tall 11 year old. Seriously considering fudging the birthdate at a walk in clinic. They don’t ask for verification do they?

The vaccine dose isn’t dependent on a child’s height. It’s the development of their immune system at different ages. Children aren’t just little adults when it comes to medicine and dosage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

Yep.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People yelled: "Science says covid isn't transmitted in school!!" based on odd this-is-what-we-got, half-assed indirect interpretation of barely related, laughably incomplete data, without a single actual study with widespread systematic asymptomatic testing of all students.

The same people are now demanding "studies, real studies with control groups" before they even consider the risk of long-covid in kids.

you can’t have a controlled study of long covid for obvious reasons. but the research is pretty clear for now that “long covid” in kids isn’t significant. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782164

and yes, the available research pretty clearly shows schools are safe. if you really are worried let’s talk about mandatory teacher and staff vaccination.

No, the research is emphatically not "pretty clear for now" on the prevalence of long covid in kids.
JAMA just had to retract a quack paper that claimed masks are harmful to kids.

I am not about to be reassured about the risk of kid long covid by a JAMA research letter showing "only" 4 out of 109 positive kids had long covid symptoms at the 3 months mark, when positive in October 2020 (i.e. not delta). That tells me SO very little, particularly in the context of many far more concerning reports.

Same poster. Also note:
if all of DCPS crams itself back into school buildings through the 2021-22 winter,
- with single-digit vaccination rates of currently eligible students seen in the poorer wards,
- higher vaccination rates in the wealthier wards,
- only able to vaccinate the elementary students mid-winter, fully vaccinating them by late-winter/early-spring,
- if we don't set up protocols for outdoor lunch/snacks
- if we don't set up asymptomatic testing more serious than what was done last school year,
- seeing how infection rates are creeping up consistently in the district right,

It would be reasonable to expect 10% of the 51,000 DCPS students to catch covid over the first two quarters.
Even if only 4% of infected kids went on to have long-covid, we'd have the 200 long-covid students number I threw out there.

10%? Did school districts that were open last winter have these rates? What are you using to make this estimate?

She is using her fearful imagination. Same with the 4% of Long Covid.

4%: that is the least alarmist rate possible. It's the rate in the JAMA paper brought into the thread to claim that long covid is no big deal in kids.
10%: last winter didn't have the delta variant, which is vastly more contagious than what was circulating in 2020.

Last winter didn’t have a vaccine.

Your turn.

This winter doesn’t have a vaccine either for the populations we are talking about. Your turn.

Why did you list rates for currently eligible persons?

Defend your 10%.

Your turn.