buying now or waiting another year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I believe they are now calling the market “Dead Man Walking”

Just wait.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4498666-us-housing-is-a-dead-man-walking

This article says more people are buying. Less homes are available. More people are holding onto their homes. That’s not dead man walking. Nice title though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I believe they are now calling the market “Dead Man Walking”

Just wait.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4498666-us-housing-is-a-dead-man-walking

The housing market can die (because no one is selling) and prices can remain high. Realtors would actually benefit from falling prices as people rush to sell rather than hold on to a growing real estate emprie

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I believe they are now calling the market “Dead Man Walking”

Just wait.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4498666-us-housing-is-a-dead-man-walking

The housing market can die (because no one is selling) and prices can remain high. Realtors would actually benefit from falling prices as people rush to sell rather than hold on to a growing real estate emprie

Agree that realtors would do better in a higher volume situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
So, riddle me this genius.

Why were they not buying pre-covid? Why wasn't there a huge run up in housing pre-covid, when these guys still had access to essentially unlimited capital.

Hello, McFly...demand has increased while supply has remained relatively flat. And they have access to more capital now.

You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).

Your reasoning trips over itself in different places, like by implying prior drivers of the residential market are somehow valid while current drivers are fake. And you gloss over the fact that older folks are living longer and healthier lives—their hold times on houses are going way up, effectively reducing supply. And you say “massive” changes are coming…I mean…yes, but they’ve already begun. The last 2 years have been extraordinarily tumultuous. But I do agree: buckle up.

[Anonymous]

Disgruntled buyer strikes again with another irrational spiel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).

Your reasoning trips over itself in different places, like by implying prior drivers of the residential market are somehow valid while current drivers are fake. And you gloss over the fact that older folks are living longer and healthier lives—their hold times on houses are going way up, effectively reducing supply. And you say “massive” changes are coming…I mean…yes, but they’ve already begun. The last 2 years have been extraordinarily tumultuous. But I do agree: buckle up.

No, PP is saying the surge in demand that took off with Covid is temporary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).

Your reasoning trips over itself in different places, like by implying prior drivers of the residential market are somehow valid while current drivers are fake. And you gloss over the fact that older folks are living longer and healthier lives—their hold times on houses are going way up, effectively reducing supply. And you say “massive” changes are coming…I mean…yes, but they’ve already begun. The last 2 years have been extraordinarily tumultuous. But I do agree: buckle up.

No, PP is saying the surge in demand that took off with Covid is temporary.

I disagree. People have a stronger preference for SFH now because WFH makes a variety of commutes more tenable, as well as the need of a larger house for home offices. Poise the value of outdoor space in pandemic surges (I mean COVID isn’t going away right?).

millennials actually valued walkability and had kids in apartments and condos — they are scarred for life and want SPACE and GenZ is taking notes for when they get close to marrying. Peoples timetable for when they get a SFH have moved up.

At the back end, the pandemic revealed how deadly assisted living can be, so as retirees will oppose selling the SFH to live in communal elder homes, so that will shrink supply further from prior trends. May see a bump in home healthcare demand though.

Now this could be balanced by the ability work remote (not WFH, remote) and move to 2nd or 3rd tier city thus better spreading demand. But people want good schools, shopping, safety etc so that definitely will take time to revitalize in many lower cost options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Disgruntled buyer strikes again with another irrational spiel.

Lame prospective buyer continues with ad hominem attacks when anybody dares question their dainty prophecies about the future.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Okay, Mandorian, no one has said crash. People, including the Fed, are saying there will be a downturn *beginning* in the next few weeks. Beginning. Not crash. Also, you seem to have conveniently overlooked the data showing that new building starts are at their highest levels since 2006. So new building is surging.

Ughh, people are taking about "worst time to buy since 2007" and "bubble bursting" in the coming weeks. To me it sounds like they're tacitly trying to suggest a crash...or maybe they're just saying it to stoke fears and sound smart--either way it seems a bit deceiving. They could be right, but I think it's very unlikely.

If you state the beginning of a downturn, then sure that's possible. I could certainly see home prices down 1-3% in 2023 compared to now. Or they could be up by that much. Who knows?

Please show me this "data" I'm conveniently overlooking talking about all these new SFHs or even townhomes in areas people always talk about wanting to move to on DCUM-- ie NW DC and the close in parts of Arlington, Alexandria, TP, SS, Chevy Chase, Bethesda? Because there's almost no vacant land in those areas.

And for the record I am not buying or selling right now.

The entIre global banking system nearly collapsed in the fall of 2007, and prices barely dipped in this area of the country. People betting on a market crash because of interest rate hikes are delusional, appreciation will likely slow here, but price drops are unlikely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Okay, Mandorian, no one has said crash. People, including the Fed, are saying there will be a downturn *beginning* in the next few weeks. Beginning. Not crash. Also, you seem to have conveniently overlooked the data showing that new building starts are at their highest levels since 2006. So new building is surging.

Ughh, people are taking about "worst time to buy since 2007" and "bubble bursting" in the coming weeks. To me it sounds like they're tacitly trying to suggest a crash...or maybe they're just saying it to stoke fears and sound smart--either way it seems a bit deceiving. They could be right, but I think it's very unlikely.

If you state the beginning of a downturn, then sure that's possible. I could certainly see home prices down 1-3% in 2023 compared to now. Or they could be up by that much. Who knows?

Please show me this "data" I'm conveniently overlooking talking about all these new SFHs or even townhomes in areas people always talk about wanting to move to on DCUM-- ie NW DC and the close in parts of Arlington, Alexandria, TP, SS, Chevy Chase, Bethesda? Because there's almost no vacant land in those areas.

And for the record I am not buying or selling right now.

The entIre global banking system nearly collapsed in the fall of 2007, and prices barely dipped in this area of the country. People betting on a market crash because of interest rate hikes are delusional, appreciation will likely slow here, but price drops are unlikely.

+1. I keep saying this. Anyone who thinks prices will just dramatically drop aren’t paying attention. Either buy what you like now. Or forever be priced out.

[Anonymous]

This sounds like the narrative in 2020 when we bought but with lower interest rates. Folks were saying wait, there will be foreclosures bla bla.

Now it's something else to deter folks not to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This sounds like the narrative in 2020 when we bought but with lower interest rates. Folks were saying wait, there will be foreclosures bla bla.

Now it's something else to deter folks not to buy.

Yes we bought in the early spring of 2020 and were honestly unsure if we could sell our existing house for anything close to value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds like the narrative in 2020 when we bought but with lower interest rates. Folks were saying wait, there will be foreclosures bla bla.

Now it's something else to deter folks not to buy.

Yes we bought in the early spring of 2020 and were honestly unsure if we could sell our existing house for anything close to value.

Seriously, who would have thought a GLOBAL PANDEMIC would raise prices? Anyone trying to predict the future is dumb. I advocate buying because it acts as a hedge; if prices keep going up, you don't care, if they go down, you ONLY care if you have to sell. I like having a life where I never have to look at Redfin or Zillow again or wonder if my landlord is going to jack up my rent by 10% AGAIN this year.

[Anonymous]

At least you can live in it.