buying now or waiting another year?

[Anonymous]

Bottom line... don't try to time the market. It may work out, or it may be a disaster. Buy when you need a home and are financially ready to purchase one, something that is different for everyone, stop worrying and base your decision on something you can control. Like someone else said, at the beginning of the pandemic there was enormous fearmongering on a collapse in housing, lots of people losing their homes, etc. There will always be downturns, they just aren't really predictable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Seriously, who would have thought a GLOBAL PANDEMIC would raise prices? Anyone trying to predict the future is dumb.

Amen. Meanwhile the 6:31 poster is probably pondering how to tel us she/he CAN tell the future and how we’re all too dumb to understand.

Charlatans abound.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).

Your reasoning trips over itself in different places, like by implying prior drivers of the residential market are somehow valid while current drivers are fake. And you gloss over the fact that older folks are living longer and healthier lives—their hold times on houses are going way up, effectively reducing supply. And you say “massive” changes are coming…I mean…yes, but they’ve already begun. The last 2 years have been extraordinarily tumultuous. But I do agree: buckle up.

No, PP is saying the surge in demand that took off with Covid is temporary.

I disagree. People have a stronger preference for SFH now because WFH makes a variety of commutes more tenable, as well as the need of a larger house for home offices. Poise the value of outdoor space in pandemic surges (I mean COVID isn’t going away right?).

millennials actually valued walkability and had kids in apartments and condos — they are scarred for life and want SPACE and GenZ is taking notes for when they get close to marrying. Peoples timetable for when they get a SFH have moved up.

At the back end, the pandemic revealed how deadly assisted living can be, so as retirees will oppose selling the SFH to live in communal elder homes, so that will shrink supply further from prior trends. May see a bump in home healthcare demand though.

Now this could be balanced by the ability work remote (not WFH, remote) and move to 2nd or 3rd tier city thus better spreading demand. But people want good schools, shopping, safety etc so that definitely will take time to revitalize in many lower cost options.

Then why are prices also going way up in cities?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This sounds like the narrative in 2020 when we bought but with lower interest rates. Folks were saying wait, there will be foreclosures bla bla.

Now it's something else to deter folks not to buy.

Yes we bought in the early spring of 2020 and were honestly unsure if we could sell our existing house for anything close to value.

Seriously, who would have thought a GLOBAL PANDEMIC would raise prices? Anyone trying to predict the future is dumb. I advocate buying because it acts as a hedge; if prices keep going up, you don't care, if they go down, you ONLY care if you have to sell. I like having a life where I never have to look at Redfin or Zillow again or wonder if my landlord is going to jack up my rent by 10% AGAIN this year.

Prices should not have risen in a global pandemic. Our economy should have suffered far more. The only reason it didn’t is because the Fed propped it up. And now, the Fed is slowly allowing the true market to do its thing. Time for some true price discovery.

[Anonymous]

I would advise buying when you can afford a house that comes on the market that will work for your family. I wouldn't try to "time it" as that might now work out the way you planned.