buying now or waiting another year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just bought. These posts stress me out a little. I paid premium (over asking), but not absurdity (ie 100+ over asking). I’m lucky that I was already a home owner and am preparing to sell, so fingers crossed we sell high also. The part that stresses me most when I read these posts is that we currently live in a desirable close in neighborhood, and we are moving further out. I think it’s likely our new home could see a small drop in value in the months/ my ears ahead. But then I remember it’s the right home and location for my family, we didn’t financially over extend ourselves, and it will make daily life much better. And I’m at peace with that. The thing is, I have all this stress when I read these posts… and yet I also believe that the DMV real estate market is different, that WFH is here to stay and yet won’t change things that much in the near term, etc. no one knows what will happen. Waiting would have been very difficult for my family so I am glad we didn’t do it. Only you know what’s right for you and your family OP.

Let’s say you end up losing 100k on the house whenever you sell it.

Does that translate into a life of poverty? Do your kids not go to college? Do you have to work until you’re 90? Do you starve?

Assuming that you didn’t wildly overextend yourself and you invest/save a reasonable amount each year, the answer to all of these is: no.

So what’s the worst thing that happens? Is it that bad?

It sounds like you made the best decision for your family. Rest easy.

This is the way.

Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck. Would you suggest someone put down 0% on a house and then take out a home equity loan immediately after closing? Because that’s essentially what being 100k underwater is like.

Sure, I more than recovered financially, eventually sold my property and I’m doing fine. But it was a lot of unnecessary stress that could have been avoided had I not bought a home during a home buying frenzy when market fundamentals didn’t make any sense.

For most people buying $1m+ houses in the DMV, losing $100k does not mean being underwater.

Being underwater means owing more on the mortgage note than the total value of the house. The prior poster was saying that he owed $100,000 more on the note than he could sell his house for. I don’t know a lot of people for whom a $100,000 isn’t a big deal. Even people buying $2m houses aren’t going to feel good about losing $100k in equity. That’s a quarter of your 20% down even at that level. That’s a lot of money to just about anyone with a mortgage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you buy in the next couple of months you will be being buying at the worst possible point since 2007. If you are comfortable with that, that’s up to you, but I would ask what is so urgent that you can’t wait 6 or 12 months? The people who are telling you to buy now, that it will be fine, are realtors who have a personal financial stake in keeping the inflated market going for as long as possible. These are salespeople. Talk to a market forecaster who has nothing to gain from you losing money on a purchase. Read about what’s going on in the larger market, what the rising interest rates will do to prices, what the Fed is doing and predicting. Don’t listen to salespeople.

Incidentally, the people who said don’t buy last year were also right. People who bought in 2021 will take a financial beating too during the downturn. Just not as bad a beating as the people buying now. In a few weeks it’s expected their houses will be worth whatever it’s valuation in 2019 was. They didn’t buy at the absolute peak (which was probably last week) but they still paid a premium they won’t be able to recover anytime soon. Talk to someone in your real life who understands market behavior. Don’t take anonymous advice from a bunch of realtors on the internet.

The notion that everyone who disagreed with your position is a realtor is as lazy as it is baseless. It's the equivalent of suggesting that the every person promoting a doom and gloom scenario is really a frustrated buyer who is just trying to chill others from entering or continuing their house hunt in the hope that it will lessen competition so they can finally win a bidding war. That sounds pretty silly, right? Same thing. This is a complicated area, and people come to different conclusions based on looking at and interpreting different data. If the only way you can argue your position is to suggest that anyone who disagrees with it has a vested interest in the other outcome, that speaks volumes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just bought. These posts stress me out a little. I paid premium (over asking), but not absurdity (ie 100+ over asking). I’m lucky that I was already a home owner and am preparing to sell, so fingers crossed we sell high also. The part that stresses me most when I read these posts is that we currently live in a desirable close in neighborhood, and we are moving further out. I think it’s likely our new home could see a small drop in value in the months/ my ears ahead. But then I remember it’s the right home and location for my family, we didn’t financially over extend ourselves, and it will make daily life much better. And I’m at peace with that. The thing is, I have all this stress when I read these posts… and yet I also believe that the DMV real estate market is different, that WFH is here to stay and yet won’t change things that much in the near term, etc. no one knows what will happen. Waiting would have been very difficult for my family so I am glad we didn’t do it. Only you know what’s right for you and your family OP.

Let’s say you end up losing 100k on the house whenever you sell it.

Does that translate into a life of poverty? Do your kids not go to college? Do you have to work until you’re 90? Do you starve?

Assuming that you didn’t wildly overextend yourself and you invest/save a reasonable amount each year, the answer to all of these is: no.

So what’s the worst thing that happens? Is it that bad?

It sounds like you made the best decision for your family. Rest easy.

This is the way.

Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck. Would you suggest someone put down 0% on a house and then take out a home equity loan immediately after closing? Because that’s essentially what being 100k underwater is like.

Sure, I more than recovered financially, eventually sold my property and I’m doing fine. But it was a lot of unnecessary stress that could have been avoided had I not bought a home during a home buying frenzy when market fundamentals didn’t make any sense.

For most people buying $1m+ houses in the DMV, losing $100k does not mean being underwater.

Being underwater means owing more on the mortgage note than the total value of the house. The prior poster was saying that he owed $100,000 more on the note than he could sell his house for. I don’t know a lot of people for whom a $100,000 isn’t a big deal. Even people buying $2m houses aren’t going to feel good about losing $100k in equity. That’s a quarter of your 20% down even at that level. That’s a lot of money to just about anyone with a mortgage.

I don't know where you got that. A PP posed hypo about losing $100k in value, with no mention of being underwater. the responding PP assumed that losing $100k meant one was underwater, and compared it to his own experience. I was simply pointing out that for most people buying $1m houses, they can lose $100k and not be underwater. No one suggested it is the optimal situation, or even a pleasant experience.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just bought. These posts stress me out a little. I paid premium (over asking), but not absurdity (ie 100+ over asking). I’m lucky that I was already a home owner and am preparing to sell, so fingers crossed we sell high also. The part that stresses me most when I read these posts is that we currently live in a desirable close in neighborhood, and we are moving further out. I think it’s likely our new home could see a small drop in value in the months/ my ears ahead. But then I remember it’s the right home and location for my family, we didn’t financially over extend ourselves, and it will make daily life much better. And I’m at peace with that. The thing is, I have all this stress when I read these posts… and yet I also believe that the DMV real estate market is different, that WFH is here to stay and yet won’t change things that much in the near term, etc. no one knows what will happen. Waiting would have been very difficult for my family so I am glad we didn’t do it. Only you know what’s right for you and your family OP.

Let’s say you end up losing 100k on the house whenever you sell it.

Does that translate into a life of poverty? Do your kids not go to college? Do you have to work until you’re 90? Do you starve?

Assuming that you didn’t wildly overextend yourself and you invest/save a reasonable amount each year, the answer to all of these is: no.

So what’s the worst thing that happens? Is it that bad?

It sounds like you made the best decision for your family. Rest easy.

This is the way.

Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck. Would you suggest someone put down 0% on a house and then take out a home equity loan immediately after closing? Because that’s essentially what being 100k underwater is like.

Sure, I more than recovered financially, eventually sold my property and I’m doing fine. But it was a lot of unnecessary stress that could have been avoided had I not bought a home during a home buying frenzy when market fundamentals didn’t make any sense.

For most people buying $1m+ houses in the DMV, losing $100k does not mean being underwater.

Being underwater means owing more on the mortgage note than the total value of the house. The prior poster was saying that he owed $100,000 more on the note than he could sell his house for. I don’t know a lot of people for whom a $100,000 isn’t a big deal. Even people buying $2m houses aren’t going to feel good about losing $100k in equity. That’s a quarter of your 20% down even at that level. That’s a lot of money to just about anyone with a mortgage.

I don't know where you got that. A PP posed hypo about losing $100k in value, with no mention of being underwater. the responding PP assumed that losing $100k meant one was underwater, and compared it to his own experience. I was simply pointing out that for most people buying $1m houses, they can lose $100k and not be underwater. No one suggested it is the optimal situation, or even a pleasant experience.

This is where I got it (scroll up):

“Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck.”

[Anonymous]

Wait. If you don’t need to buy now, wait and see if the “there is no bubble” crowd or the “the bubble is coming” crowd is correct.
It will eventually become clear. The last thing you want is to buy at the very last point before the downturn.

[Anonymous]

OP buy as soon as you can. Fairfax country is just going up up up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just bought. These posts stress me out a little. I paid premium (over asking), but not absurdity (ie 100+ over asking). I’m lucky that I was already a home owner and am preparing to sell, so fingers crossed we sell high also. The part that stresses me most when I read these posts is that we currently live in a desirable close in neighborhood, and we are moving further out. I think it’s likely our new home could see a small drop in value in the months/ my ears ahead. But then I remember it’s the right home and location for my family, we didn’t financially over extend ourselves, and it will make daily life much better. And I’m at peace with that. The thing is, I have all this stress when I read these posts… and yet I also believe that the DMV real estate market is different, that WFH is here to stay and yet won’t change things that much in the near term, etc. no one knows what will happen. Waiting would have been very difficult for my family so I am glad we didn’t do it. Only you know what’s right for you and your family OP.

Let’s say you end up losing 100k on the house whenever you sell it.

Does that translate into a life of poverty? Do your kids not go to college? Do you have to work until you’re 90? Do you starve?

Assuming that you didn’t wildly overextend yourself and you invest/save a reasonable amount each year, the answer to all of these is: no.

So what’s the worst thing that happens? Is it that bad?

It sounds like you made the best decision for your family. Rest easy.

This is the way.

Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck. Would you suggest someone put down 0% on a house and then take out a home equity loan immediately after closing? Because that’s essentially what being 100k underwater is like.

Sure, I more than recovered financially, eventually sold my property and I’m doing fine. But it was a lot of unnecessary stress that could have been avoided had I not bought a home during a home buying frenzy when market fundamentals didn’t make any sense.

For most people buying $1m+ houses in the DMV, losing $100k does not mean being underwater.

Being underwater means owing more on the mortgage note than the total value of the house. The prior poster was saying that he owed $100,000 more on the note than he could sell his house for. I don’t know a lot of people for whom a $100,000 isn’t a big deal. Even people buying $2m houses aren’t going to feel good about losing $100k in equity. That’s a quarter of your 20% down even at that level. That’s a lot of money to just about anyone with a mortgage.

I don't know where you got that. A PP posed hypo about losing $100k in value, with no mention of being underwater. the responding PP assumed that losing $100k meant one was underwater, and compared it to his own experience. I was simply pointing out that for most people buying $1m houses, they can lose $100k and not be underwater. No one suggested it is the optimal situation, or even a pleasant experience.

This is where I got it (scroll up):

“Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck.”

Good lord. It's apparent from the whole exchange that the PP you quoted conflated losing $100k and being $100k underwater. He never said he was underwater by $100k.

Read more carefully.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wait. If you don’t need to buy now, wait and see if the “there is no bubble” crowd or the “the bubble is coming” crowd is correct.
It will eventually become clear. The last thing you want is to buy at the very last point before the downturn.

There is not going to be a significant downturn in SFH in Fairfax county. Too many people are if the age to buy. Even if you took a job elsewhere you could rent your home. Prices have stagnated over the last 2 years. This is the new normal. If you see something you like buy it. I’m not buying or selling but our house in Fairfax just went up 12%.

[Anonymous]

So much noise in these threads.

It ultimate comes down to two scenarios that both have potential up and downsides. Just choose the one that the upside outweighs the downside of the alternative scenario.

1. You buy now, you get a home you really want and you are living in it in the very near future and living the life you want and you (hopefully) can afford it. The market may stull and contract, and you may lose 5 to 10 or maybe up to 20% of value over next two years before market reverse. It doesn't impact your monthly finances, but can impact your net worth until it reverses. OR the market may continue to go up or stay at normal levels of appreciation and you will gain value or stay roughly even on the value of your investment, your net worth may increase.

2. You DON'T buy now. You don't have the house or lifestyle you want right now (unless you can get that through renting). If the market contracts, you lost nothing and homes get more affordable a few years from now when you go to buy and you likely can afford more house. If market does NOT contract, when you come back to buy you are paying more than you would have had you not waited. And the money you have paid towards rent was not contributing to your equity nor reducing your tax liability.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. If you don’t need to buy now, wait and see if the “there is no bubble” crowd or the “the bubble is coming” crowd is correct.
It will eventually become clear. The last thing you want is to buy at the very last point before the downturn.

There is not going to be a significant downturn in SFH in Fairfax county. Too many people are if the age to buy. Even if you took a job elsewhere you could rent your home. Prices have stagnated over the last 2 years. This is the new normal. If you see something you like buy it. I’m not buying or selling but our house in Fairfax just went up 12%.

This. I don’t understand the people who think prices will drop significantly, if at all. Even in places like Loudoun and Faquier. If people are required to go into their office once or twice a week, there will still be a demand for the suburbs and even DC exurbs.

Don’t believe me? Look
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Bristow/12445-Great-Falls-Dr-20136/home/9425641

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/6048-Gayleburg-Pl-20155/home/9425328

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/5964-Piney-Grove-Way-20155/home/12325489

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you buy in the next couple of months you will be being buying at the worst possible point since 2007. If you are comfortable with that, that’s up to you, but I would ask what is so urgent that you can’t wait 6 or 12 months? The people who are telling you to buy now, that it will be fine, are realtors who have a personal financial stake in keeping the inflated market going for as long as possible. These are salespeople. Talk to a market forecaster who has nothing to gain from you losing money on a purchase. Read about what’s going on in the larger market, what the rising interest rates will do to prices, what the Fed is doing and predicting. Don’t listen to salespeople.

Incidentally, the people who said don’t buy last year were also right. People who bought in 2021 will take a financial beating too during the downturn. Just not as bad a beating as the people buying now. In a few weeks it’s expected their houses will be worth whatever it’s valuation in 2019 was. They didn’t buy at the absolute peak (which was probably last week) but they still paid a premium they won’t be able to recover anytime soon. Talk to someone in your real life who understands market behavior. Don’t take anonymous advice from a bunch of realtors on the internet.

The notion that everyone who disagreed with your position is a realtor is as lazy as it is baseless. It's the equivalent of suggesting that the every person promoting a doom and gloom scenario is really a frustrated buyer who is just trying to chill others from entering or continuing their house hunt in the hope that it will lessen competition so they can finally win a bidding war. That sounds pretty silly, right? Same thing. This is a complicated area, and people come to different conclusions based on looking at and interpreting different data. If the only way you can argue your position is to suggest that anyone who disagrees with it has a vested interest in the other outcome, that speaks volumes.

It’s true about 99% of the time that the people saying “buy now” are realtors. Because it’s insane advice unless your job is to sell houses. And the corresponding situation that you propose makes literally no sense: no one on this board is competing against other posters for a given house. People are posting about areas all over the DMV and in a huge array of price ranges. These people are not competing over the same houses. People like me, who did a deep dive into the 2007 crisis for professional reasons and as a result have some expertise are just trying to help other people understand what’s going on. I’m just trying to counter all the misinformation that’s out there, because many people don’t realize that most of what’s said on this board is just salesmanship. Like when realtors post “Amazing new house! Will sell fast” many people don’t understand that’s just an ad for the house posted by the listing agent. I’m just trying to level the informational playing field so people aren’t duped into losing money they can’t afford to lose. What they do with that information is up to them, but educating people (especially people who don’t have an extra $100,000 laying around to lose) is just basic human decency.

My other ulterior motive is trying to prevent a local housing crash by preparing people to expect a downturn but not to panic. Because that would be bad for everyone who doesn’t think a giant recession is in their personal interest right now (i.e. everyone). I’m personally only going to buy when fundamentals seem to be back at the core of pricing, and I feel tremendous relief that I didn’t buy early this year (when I was really trying) before I knew how much risk the Fed was about to inject into the market. I feel grateful to be living in a good spot for right now, especially because we require flexibility and can’t necessarily stay in one house for 10 years. Others may be in a different circumstance, but they still deserve to under the full picture of what’s happening (both on this board and in the local and National markets).

I don’t mean to be insulting or disparaging by pointing out the realtor posts. I actually super love my realtor and have nothing but respect for my realtor. If I were to buy a house right now it would partly be because of how much I like and respect my specific realtor. So it’s not about the profession, it’s about misinformation that is self interested and might cause people to make a giant financial mistake.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just bought. These posts stress me out a little. I paid premium (over asking), but not absurdity (ie 100+ over asking). I’m lucky that I was already a home owner and am preparing to sell, so fingers crossed we sell high also. The part that stresses me most when I read these posts is that we currently live in a desirable close in neighborhood, and we are moving further out. I think it’s likely our new home could see a small drop in value in the months/ my ears ahead. But then I remember it’s the right home and location for my family, we didn’t financially over extend ourselves, and it will make daily life much better. And I’m at peace with that. The thing is, I have all this stress when I read these posts… and yet I also believe that the DMV real estate market is different, that WFH is here to stay and yet won’t change things that much in the near term, etc. no one knows what will happen. Waiting would have been very difficult for my family so I am glad we didn’t do it. Only you know what’s right for you and your family OP.

Let’s say you end up losing 100k on the house whenever you sell it.

Does that translate into a life of poverty? Do your kids not go to college? Do you have to work until you’re 90? Do you starve?

Assuming that you didn’t wildly overextend yourself and you invest/save a reasonable amount each year, the answer to all of these is: no.

So what’s the worst thing that happens? Is it that bad?

It sounds like you made the best decision for your family. Rest easy.

This is the way.

Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck. Would you suggest someone put down 0% on a house and then take out a home equity loan immediately after closing? Because that’s essentially what being 100k underwater is like.

Sure, I more than recovered financially, eventually sold my property and I’m doing fine. But it was a lot of unnecessary stress that could have been avoided had I not bought a home during a home buying frenzy when market fundamentals didn’t make any sense.

For most people buying $1m+ houses in the DMV, losing $100k does not mean being underwater.

Being underwater means owing more on the mortgage note than the total value of the house. The prior poster was saying that he owed $100,000 more on the note than he could sell his house for. I don’t know a lot of people for whom a $100,000 isn’t a big deal. Even people buying $2m houses aren’t going to feel good about losing $100k in equity. That’s a quarter of your 20% down even at that level. That’s a lot of money to just about anyone with a mortgage.

I don't know where you got that. A PP posed hypo about losing $100k in value, with no mention of being underwater. the responding PP assumed that losing $100k meant one was underwater, and compared it to his own experience. I was simply pointing out that for most people buying $1m houses, they can lose $100k and not be underwater. No one suggested it is the optimal situation, or even a pleasant experience.

This is where I got it (scroll up):

“Yeah I don’t know. I was underwater in 2008 and the subsequent years. It was terrible. Just the fact I couldn’t sell my property. I had to continue paying a mortgage for a property where I had negative equity. Even doing repairs or maintenance sucked since I knew if I were renting I would be so much better off. I couldn’t do a short sell or walk away because it would ruin my career which requires a credit check. I would have liked to move to another city but I couldn’t. When I finally could, I had to rent out my place and be a landlord which was a giant PIA.

Even being 100k underwater is a noose around your neck.”

Good lord. It's apparent from the whole exchange that the PP you quoted conflated losing $100k and being $100k underwater. He never said he was underwater by $100k.

Read more carefully.

You’re kidding, right? He literally said he was underwater and that even being underwater by 100k was a drag. In describing his experience.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. If you don’t need to buy now, wait and see if the “there is no bubble” crowd or the “the bubble is coming” crowd is correct.
It will eventually become clear. The last thing you want is to buy at the very last point before the downturn.

There is not going to be a significant downturn in SFH in Fairfax county. Too many people are if the age to buy. Even if you took a job elsewhere you could rent your home. Prices have stagnated over the last 2 years. This is the new normal. If you see something you like buy it. I’m not buying or selling but our house in Fairfax just went up 12%.

This. I don’t understand the people who think prices will drop significantly, if at all. Even in places like Loudoun and Faquier. If people are required to go into their office once or twice a week, there will still be a demand for the suburbs and even DC exurbs.

Don’t believe me? Look
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Bristow/12445-Great-Falls-Dr-20136/home/9425641

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/6048-Gayleburg-Pl-20155/home/9425328

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/5964-Piney-Grove-Way-20155/home/12325489

Home prices can absolutely drop. Until covid, most people were going into an office in cities like Tampa, Phoenix, atlanta etc and these cities still experienced significant decreases in housing prices. All it takes is for the FOMO crowd to get scared and the ride to turn. The media is already starting to report on it being the peak. People are sheep and if the tide turns, people will stop home searches and trading up. There is no guarantee what will happen to the job market in the DMV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you buy in the next couple of months you will be being buying at the worst possible point since 2007. If you are comfortable with that, that’s up to you, but I would ask what is so urgent that you can’t wait 6 or 12 months? The people who are telling you to buy now, that it will be fine, are realtors who have a personal financial stake in keeping the inflated market going for as long as possible. These are salespeople. Talk to a market forecaster who has nothing to gain from you losing money on a purchase. Read about what’s going on in the larger market, what the rising interest rates will do to prices, what the Fed is doing and predicting. Don’t listen to salespeople.

Incidentally, the people who said don’t buy last year were also right. People who bought in 2021 will take a financial beating too during the downturn. Just not as bad a beating as the people buying now. In a few weeks it’s expected their houses will be worth whatever it’s valuation in 2019 was. They didn’t buy at the absolute peak (which was probably last week) but they still paid a premium they won’t be able to recover anytime soon. Talk to someone in your real life who understands market behavior. Don’t take anonymous advice from a bunch of realtors on the internet.

The notion that everyone who disagreed with your position is a realtor is as lazy as it is baseless. It's the equivalent of suggesting that the every person promoting a doom and gloom scenario is really a frustrated buyer who is just trying to chill others from entering or continuing their house hunt in the hope that it will lessen competition so they can finally win a bidding war. That sounds pretty silly, right? Same thing. This is a complicated area, and people come to different conclusions based on looking at and interpreting different data. If the only way you can argue your position is to suggest that anyone who disagrees with it has a vested interest in the other outcome, that speaks volumes.

It’s true about 99% of the time that the people saying “buy now” are realtors. Because it’s insane advice unless your job is to sell houses. And the corresponding situation that you propose makes literally no sense: no one on this board is competing against other posters for a given house. People are posting about areas all over the DMV and in a huge array of price ranges. These people are not competing over the same houses. People like me, who did a deep dive into the 2007 crisis for professional reasons and as a result have some expertise are just trying to help other people understand what’s going on. I’m just trying to counter all the misinformation that’s out there, because many people don’t realize that most of what’s said on this board is just salesmanship. Like when realtors post “Amazing new house! Will sell fast” many people don’t understand that’s just an ad for the house posted by the listing agent. I’m just trying to level the informational playing field so people aren’t duped into losing money they can’t afford to lose. What they do with that information is up to them, but educating people (especially people who don’t have an extra $100,000 laying around to lose) is just basic human decency.

My other ulterior motive is trying to prevent a local housing crash by preparing people to expect a downturn but not to panic. Because that would be bad for everyone who doesn’t think a giant recession is in their personal interest right now (i.e. everyone). I’m personally only going to buy when fundamentals seem to be back at the core of pricing, and I feel tremendous relief that I didn’t buy early this year (when I was really trying) before I knew how much risk the Fed was about to inject into the market. I feel grateful to be living in a good spot for right now, especially because we require flexibility and can’t necessarily stay in one house for 10 years. Others may be in a different circumstance, but they still deserve to under the full picture of what’s happening (both on this board and in the local and National markets).

I don’t mean to be insulting or disparaging by pointing out the realtor posts. I actually super love my realtor and have nothing but respect for my realtor. If I were to buy a house right now it would partly be because of how much I like and respect my specific realtor. So it’s not about the profession, it’s about misinformation that is self interested and might cause people to make a giant financial mistake.

So…frustrated (and inexperienced) buyer. Got it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wait. If you don’t need to buy now, wait and see if the “there is no bubble” crowd or the “the bubble is coming” crowd is correct.
It will eventually become clear. The last thing you want is to buy at the very last point before the downturn.

There is not going to be a significant downturn in SFH in Fairfax county. Too many people are if the age to buy. Even if you took a job elsewhere you could rent your home. Prices have stagnated over the last 2 years. This is the new normal. If you see something you like buy it. I’m not buying or selling but our house in Fairfax just went up 12%.

This. I don’t understand the people who think prices will drop significantly, if at all. Even in places like Loudoun and Faquier. If people are required to go into their office once or twice a week, there will still be a demand for the suburbs and even DC exurbs.

Don’t believe me? Look
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Bristow/12445-Great-Falls-Dr-20136/home/9425641

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/6048-Gayleburg-Pl-20155/home/9425328

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Gainesville/5964-Piney-Grove-Way-20155/home/12325489

Home prices can absolutely drop. Until covid, most people were going into an office in cities like Tampa, Phoenix, atlanta etc and these cities still experienced significant decreases in housing prices. All it takes is for the FOMO crowd to get scared and the ride to turn. The media is already starting to report on it being the peak. People are sheep and if the tide turns, people will stop home searches and trading up. There is no guarantee what will happen to the job market in the DMV.

Those areas aren’t the DMV. You guys are dreaming if you think home prices will dramatically falter. You won’t see as many overbids, but that’s about it. It’s still supply Vs demand.

People who keep saying that prices will drop are the same ones repeating this fairy tale about the bubble popping and want the get a cheap house.