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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
So, riddle me this genius.

Why were they not buying pre-covid? Why wasn't there a huge run up in housing pre-covid, when these guys still had access to essentially unlimited capital.[/quote]

Hello, McFly...demand has [i]increased[/i] while supply has remained relatively flat.  And they have access to [i]more[/i] capital now.[/quote]
You're sidestepping the question, that's not what I asked.

Forget about what happened post-covid. The so called institutional investors (like Blackrock) still had or had access to virtually unlimited capital. And pre-covid the "demand" wasn't a driver, since we did not see price escalation that we saw post-covid. They could have been grabbing SFH left and right for a lot less, if they were reading their tea leaves correctly. Apparently they were not.

Post-Covid - Demand went up, and we have had supply side issues. But...it is asinine to think that this unique situation will persist for too long. In your own words, these guys are looking at "long term" (I have doubts about that...). So again, what tea leaves are they reading? Long term...if you own a sawmill/lumber yard/forest whatever, you really think you wouldn't wanna sell as much wood as you can? Or are you saying that you'd withhold supplies thinking that you can get higher prices for them later? And your competitor may or may not agree with you...

The current housing mania is nothing but a manufactured crisis/FOMO. There is NO shortage of housing, either existing or being constructed. The demographics of our country just don't support that thesis. Everybody keeps saying...but..but...millenials are at the prime house formation stage! Well...if they are...their previous generation must be getting old and cranky, right? But wait, boomers aint selling! Again, a misguided notion. Some may not be selling, but as you age, there is no way you can maintain a big house, and you don't/shouldn't need to. Your needs have changed. So, either your young ones are living with you, supporting that (which in turn means less housing formation), or you will sell soon. There's no middle ground. Time/Aging is relentless.

And then we have the Fed and interest rates. 30Y rates have gone up at the FASTEST pace in the last 40 years. Why? Why now? Answer: The Fed is out of time and out of options. The Bond market is bringing the Fed to its knees, whether they like it or not.

We're living in very interesting times, financially and geo-politically. We're gonna see massive (and I mean massive) changes on both fronts in the near future, and it remains to be seen, how that will affect everyday people, but make no mistake, the wheels are in motion and shots have been fired (literally and figuratively).[/quote]

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