Reply to 2020 vs 2024 Presidential Election Polls

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[quote=Anonymous]I'm not a Democrat.  I'm a former Reagan republican that is now considered a RINO in the GOP, so I am now a registered Independent because the GOP has discarded us and left us behind.

I am pretty sure that Biden will win.  Polling in the MAGA era is notoriously poorly predictive.  The polling models are not very good about getting out to a good cross-section of people.  Polling models have a lot of inherent issues with trying to track and find people to poll.  Now, with mobile technology, it is much harder for pollsters to get a hold of people and to get a good cross-section.  The numbers are skewed by those people who they can find, those who answer unlisted or potentially spam numbers, and those who will take the time to answer polls.  I was recently polled before this November election.  I told the pollster up front that I had exactly 10 min.  They said it would be enough.  At 10 min, I was answering like question #15 and said I had to leave.  He said just a few more.  At 18 min, I asked how many more and he said if I didn't finish, he couldn't use my answers.  I finally gave up at 20 min and just hung up and left 10 min late for my appointment.  One big problem is that he read his script slowly and had to read every word of long questions.  If I asked him to repeat on phrase or option, he had to go and read the entire question over.  The questions took up about 80-90% of the time.  My answers were usually brief.

I also know that many pollsters still use landline phone numbers.  Many people no longer have landlines and many (like us) who have landlines, almost never answer them.  We have our landlines for external reasons, but the vast majority of calls that come on our landline are spam and so we only answer if caller ID tells us it is someone we know (like my mother, who prefers to call on the landline for some reason).

So, pollsters need to figure out how to get better polling populations (e.g. cell phones or mobile devices) and how to make the polls more time considerate.  Like if they called and gave me a poll number and I could go to a web-site and enter the polling number and then answer the polls, I'd be more likely to complete it.  I can read significantly faster than this guy could read and speak and I could probably have finished the entire poll in under 5 minutes had it been an on-line poll.  The use of polling numbers would prevent duplicate entries and add confirmation that the person contacted was the person completing the poll.  But the current polling models are very flawed.  One big issue is that due to the polling models, the polls probably skew significantly older and hence, likely more conservative.

Last, as has been evident in every election since RvW was overturned, women and younger voters have turned out in greater and greater numbers to ensure that anything that touches on protecting reproductive rights is getting about 60% of the vote.  Anytime it is left to the voters, they will vote to protect those rights.  And that includes in candidates, like in the recent Virginia legislative votes and the Kentucky governors vote.  In 2024, the Democratic party and Biden will be campaigning a lot on protecting reproductive rights and that will seal the deal.  The GOP has no answer to voters who do NOT want anti-abortion laws and judges  passed, by Congress or the presidency.  I will bet that this single issue will be the tipping point and 2024 will be a very bad year for the GOP in general.[/quote]

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