APS: Think the "no move" campaign is going to work?

[Anonymous]

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Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

I don’t think that’s correct. How do you think Campbell has a 50% fr/l rate? It’s half kids who are zoned CS but who go to Campbell through VPI instead. That accounts for a lot of that transfer number, as would any kids headed to Claremont, who may or may not qualify for fr/l. If you look at the map, the only solidly MC PUs zoned to CS are Glencarlyn and Forest Glen. There aren’t that many K-5 kids living in those neighborhoods. It’s maybe 100 kids? That doesn’t account for kids in private school, but they won’t be coming to Carlin Springs anyway. If all 100 MC kids in K-5 at other public schools in APS went to Carlin Springs, the fr/l rate would drop, to a mere 70% fr/l. So, yes, better, but still highly segregated.

If you assume that all of the kids who transferred from Carlin Springs to Campbell are FARMS, you would get a 70% FARMS rate at Carlin Springs. I personally know multiple Middle Class families who live in Glen Carlyn, zoned for Carlin Springs- who attend Campbell. All the CS transfers to Campbell are not FARMS. So if all inbound kids attended Carlin Springs, you would have a FARMS rate somewhere between 48-70%. That's pretty substantially different than the current 80%.

I am pretty sure there are only about 100 kids aged K-5 living in all of Glencarlyn (PUs 35010, 35020, 35040) and Forest Glen (35041, 35050) enrolled in APS schools. That’s all kids, K-5 enrolled in APS living in those PUs. The data tables are on the APS site here:

https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Planning-Unit-Level-Enrollment-Projections-and-Select-Student-Demographics-Oct.-17-2018.pdf

There are no other SFH neighborhoods assigned to CS. The multifamily PUs have majority fr/l students.

So, that means over 200 of the CS transfers out are fr/l students. Many to Campbell, some to Claremont, and a few to ATS.

Yes, that’s right. There seems to be this complete ignorance about how much poverty is in South Arlington. I can understand why some in NA don’t know or can’t imagine it, but across all SA as a whole, 50 percent of students are FRL. 50 percent. HALF. Think about that the next time you feel the urge to claim that if only middle class students from SA would all attend the neighborhood school, things would be better. No they wouldn’t. They’d be at best, 50 percent FRL, which most NA parents would t touch with a ten foot pole.

[Anonymous]

Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

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Oh god. People have been doing that for decades. Their kids get to 3rd grade and they leave because there will never be enough if you to balance the apartments. That’s why all the families are young.

Oh don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying all of my neighborhood’s issues are resolved. Please. What it I’m seeing as positive is it’s not just young families moving in. These are families who have been here 5 or more years, already have kids in APS, know what the issues are, and are still choosing to make these houses their long-term homes by investing in giant additions to accommodate their kids as they get older. These are families who aren’t afraid of Kenmore or Wakefield right off the bat. Sure that may change, but nothing is certain anywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

A lot of the signatories don’t live in Arlington, but many of those outside signatories conveniently have the same last name as Arlington signatories. The ability to get their extended families to sign on isn’t compelling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

A lot of the signatories don’t live in Arlington, but many of those outside signatories conveniently have the same last name as Arlington signatories. The ability to get their extended families to sign on isn’t compelling.

Lots of grandparents

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:So after 73 pages...it still seems like it’s a toss up as to whether the move happens.

I’m imagining Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber” saying “so you’re saying there’s a chance!”

Got the votes? We’ll see.

At least four, probably five. Three us all it takes.

Who do you think is going to vote which way and why?

Every but Reid is a definite to vote for proposal 1. Reid probably will, but not as certain.

Parents who support the moves should make sure they connect with Reid, make their voices heard. McK website used to have a lot of details, including information about meeting with Reid to review their solution. Hope he’s getting a balance of ideas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

A lot of the signatories don’t live in Arlington, but many of those outside signatories conveniently have the same last name as Arlington signatories. The ability to get their extended families to sign on isn’t compelling.

Lots of grandparents

Easy to get 1,000 signatures if you get even less than half of families from McKinley, ATS, and Key to sign - and get their out-of-county family and friends to sign.

Wish we could get a Yes Move petition, but I would be concerned for physical safety given McKrazy and Crazy Key Teacher.

[Anonymous]

There is a significant mobilization of pro move PTAs (ie, most PTAs) to tell SB and staff about support for moves. They know a petition is usually the last, desperate move of a losing cause. Plenty of pro love conversations taking place via email and public office hours. Keep it coming!

[Anonymous]

Pro move. Not pro love. Though that’s very nice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

Anyone can sign it. If you look thru the comments it is full of older women who are related to an aps student who’s parents have posted it.

[Anonymous]

What ptas have mobilized? I know asfs sent two letters, but has anyone else done anything?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What ptas have mobilized? I know asfs sent two letters, but has anyone else done anything?

I’ve heard (but have no personal knowledge) that Ashlawn has spoken up not openly supporting proposal 1 but just saying they’re not opposed as long as it won’t leave them overcrowded. I’ve also heard that a lot of Tuckahoe parents have spoken up in favor of proposal 1, but I think that’s just been individual parents rather than a PTA effort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like the no move petition has over 1,000 signatures. That indicates that there is a solid amount of concern about this.

How many of those signatures are actual APS parents? How many of them are from outside the McKinley/Key/ATS communities?
THAT will indicate how solid the amount of concern is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

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But are they sending their children to Randolph/Barcroft/Carlin Springs?

No, they are not. They already have one older sibling at a choice school, so all siblings follow. Some go private for middle and high. I live in barcroft and not a single kid around me goes to barcroft. Many go private for middle and high.

Maybe none right around you that you know But there are a LOT of kids in Barcroft who go to Barcroft.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

But many of them are FRL - that's why Campbell is 50% FRL.