APS: Think the "no move" campaign is going to work?

[Anonymous]

Not familiar with SA, but moving Claremont to Drew is an interesting thought. I though swapping Key and ASFS was a waste of money, but seriously, this is crazy that they are planning to move three schools (Key, ATS, McKinley).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

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But are they sending their children to Randolph/Barcroft/Carlin Springs?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

.

But are they sending their children to Randolph/Barcroft/Carlin Springs?

No, they are not. They already have one older sibling at a choice school, so all siblings follow. Some go private for middle and high. I live in barcroft and not a single kid around me goes to barcroft. Many go private for middle and high.

[Anonymous]

Lots of Childless couples moving to barcroft too. Seen three new neighbors and more coming soon. No kids and no plans to have them. Homes are not huge so good size for two adults. Prices here are no skyrocketing though like north Arlington and around amazon. Inching up, but not wild appreciation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

.

Oh god. People have been doing that for decades. Their kids get to 3rd grade and they leave because there will never be enough if you to balance the apartments. That’s why all the families are young.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So after 73 pages...it still seems like it’s a toss up as to whether the move happens.

I’m imagining Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber” saying “so you’re saying there’s a chance!”

Got the votes? We’ll see.

At least four, probably five. Three us all it takes.

Who do you think is going to vote which way and why?

Every but Reid is a definite to vote for proposal 1. Reid probably will, but not as certain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So after 73 pages...it still seems like it’s a toss up as to whether the move happens.

I’m imagining Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber” saying “so you’re saying there’s a chance!”

Got the votes? We’ll see.

At least four, probably five. Three us all it takes.

Who do you think is going to vote which way and why?

Every but Reid is a definite to vote for proposal 1. Reid probably will, but not as certain.

interesting. I feel fairly certain that BK, NVD, and TT will vote for proposal 1. The one I am the least certain of is MO- she is pretty beholden to the option school crowd. But I think she is smart enough to realize that voting against proposal 1 is really bad for APS as a whole. I think a vote against for both her and RG is more likely if they are confident that it is going to pass.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So after 73 pages...it still seems like it’s a toss up as to whether the move happens.

I’m imagining Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber” saying “so you’re saying there’s a chance!”

Got the votes? We’ll see.

At least four, probably five. Three us all it takes.

Who do you think is going to vote which way and why?

Every but Reid is a definite to vote for proposal 1. Reid probably will, but not as certain.

interesting. I feel fairly certain that BK, NVD, and TT will vote for proposal 1. The one I am the least certain of is MO- she is pretty beholden to the option school crowd. But I think she is smart enough to realize that voting against proposal 1 is really bad for APS as a whole. I think a vote against for both her and RG is more likely if they are confident that it is going to pass.

Did you watch the board meeting where they officially recommended it? Jan 9 I think? MO is probably the most on board IMO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad they are finally addressing the false claim that options schools help poorer neighborhoods. In areas with a lot of families qualifying for FRL, it's not the more needy families applying to ATS, it's the ones with more means. Thank you, LS, for saying that publicly.

I agree and disagree with that. I don’t think the answer to SA’s schools is to keep putting option schools there to entice the Middle and UMC. That doesn’t solve anything and creates more problems.

On the other hand, take away even the possibility of lucking into an option school, middle class families would be less likely to buy and rent in those more vulnerable neighborhoods, and the cycle of poverty and segregation continues.

Dude, it’s over. SA is never going to gentrify. The cycle of poverty is permanent, and the county leadership is actively supporting it by building more AH. Every SA school except fleet and Oakridge is poorer than it was in the 1990s. And with amazons money, it’ll get worse.

I’m not sure what your definition of gentrification is, but SA continues to gentrify. I see it in my neighborhood every day in the huge additions families with young children are putting on their houses. People are digging in because the middle class continues to be priced out of North Arlington

.

Oh god. People have been doing that for decades. Their kids get to 3rd grade and they leave because there will never be enough if you to balance the apartments. That’s why all the families are young.

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

I don’t think that’s correct. How do you think Campbell has a 50% fr/l rate? It’s half kids who are zoned CS but who go to Campbell through VPI instead. That accounts for a lot of that transfer number, as would any kids headed to Claremont, who may or may not qualify for fr/l. If you look at the map, the only solidly MC PUs zoned to CS are Glencarlyn and Forest Glen. There aren’t that many K-5 kids living in those neighborhoods. It’s maybe 100 kids? That doesn’t account for kids in private school, but they won’t be coming to Carlin Springs anyway. If all 100 MC kids in K-5 at other public schools in APS went to Carlin Springs, the fr/l rate would drop, to a mere 70% fr/l. So, yes, better, but still highly segregated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

I don’t think that’s correct. How do you think Campbell has a 50% fr/l rate? It’s half kids who are zoned CS but who go to Campbell through VPI instead. That accounts for a lot of that transfer number, as would any kids headed to Claremont, who may or may not qualify for fr/l. If you look at the map, the only solidly MC PUs zoned to CS are Glencarlyn and Forest Glen. There aren’t that many K-5 kids living in those neighborhoods. It’s maybe 100 kids? That doesn’t account for kids in private school, but they won’t be coming to Carlin Springs anyway. If all 100 MC kids in K-5 at other public schools in APS went to Carlin Springs, the fr/l rate would drop, to a mere 70% fr/l. So, yes, better, but still highly segregated.

If you assume that all of the kids who transferred from Carlin Springs to Campbell are FARMS, you would get a 70% FARMS rate at Carlin Springs. I personally know multiple Middle Class families who live in Glen Carlyn, zoned for Carlin Springs- who attend Campbell. All the CS transfers to Campbell are not FARMS. So if all inbound kids attended Carlin Springs, you would have a FARMS rate somewhere between 48-70%. That's pretty substantially different than the current 80%.

[Anonymous]

There are quite a few kids from the glen Carlin are who are not farms, but not enough to make an enormous difference at Carlin springs if those families chose not to transfer. Just as many kids are from barcroft.

The school board is likely going to expand barcroft to accommodate all the affordable housing that will be built along the western pike soon. And, the school board wants to relieve overcrowding at abingdon by sending all the apartments south of the pike to Barcroft. Barcroft is the next Carlin springs.

[Anonymous]

Yeah. That was in the cards 5 years ago. They built Fleet instead but said they’d be back for Barcroft. They will be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Of all the schools, Barcroft is the only one that even has the demographics to be 50/50. Carlin Springs and Randolph just don’t have the kids from MC or UMC families to balance the amount of AH with kids. The numbers go down, but not much, especially Carlin Springs. The numbers just aren’t there for those two schools to be “balanced.”

Some of this also has to do with option school policy. If more kids gained access through VPI, the fr/l numbers might not be as high in the SA segregated neighborhood schools. Take more disadvantaged kids (give them the opportunity first), and take fewer SA MC kids. Maybe the option schools should be more like Campbell, with 50% of the seats reserved for kids who come in through VPI.

Interestingly enough- Carlin Springs was the one that LS called out in the webinar yesterday as the one where the FRL rate would substantially change if there were not option schools transfers. Last year CS had 349 kids transfer out. It had 638 students enrolled. If you add those 349 kids back into the school, and assume none of them are farms- you get a FARMS rate of 48%. Probably some of them are FARMS, but most are not.

I don’t think that’s correct. How do you think Campbell has a 50% fr/l rate? It’s half kids who are zoned CS but who go to Campbell through VPI instead. That accounts for a lot of that transfer number, as would any kids headed to Claremont, who may or may not qualify for fr/l. If you look at the map, the only solidly MC PUs zoned to CS are Glencarlyn and Forest Glen. There aren’t that many K-5 kids living in those neighborhoods. It’s maybe 100 kids? That doesn’t account for kids in private school, but they won’t be coming to Carlin Springs anyway. If all 100 MC kids in K-5 at other public schools in APS went to Carlin Springs, the fr/l rate would drop, to a mere 70% fr/l. So, yes, better, but still highly segregated.

If you assume that all of the kids who transferred from Carlin Springs to Campbell are FARMS, you would get a 70% FARMS rate at Carlin Springs. I personally know multiple Middle Class families who live in Glen Carlyn, zoned for Carlin Springs- who attend Campbell. All the CS transfers to Campbell are not FARMS. So if all inbound kids attended Carlin Springs, you would have a FARMS rate somewhere between 48-70%. That's pretty substantially different than the current 80%.

I am pretty sure there are only about 100 kids aged K-5 living in all of Glencarlyn (PUs 35010, 35020, 35040) and Forest Glen (35041, 35050) enrolled in APS schools. That’s all kids, K-5 enrolled in APS living in those PUs. The data tables are on the APS site here:

https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Planning-Unit-Level-Enrollment-Projections-and-Select-Student-Demographics-Oct.-17-2018.pdf

There are no other SFH neighborhoods assigned to CS. The multifamily PUs have majority fr/l students.

So, that means over 200 of the CS transfers out are fr/l students. Many to Campbell, some to Claremont, and a few to ATS.