Fall 2022 Over/Under-Enrollment at FCPS High Schools

[Anonymous]

September 2022 FCPS HS enrollments vs. current or planned permanent capacity:

Severely Over-Crowded:

Centreville 133.1%
Chantilly 129.8%
McLean 122.1%

Modestly Over-Crowded to Modestly Under-Enrolled:

West Springfield 105.8%
Woodson 105.6%
Edison 105.2%
Marshall 102.6%
Oakton 102.1%
Robinson 99.9%
Fairfax 97.6%
Annandale 96.4%
Hayfield 96.0%
Westfield 93.8%
Herndon 93.6%
Justice 93.3%
Lake Braddock 92.7%
South Lakes 92.5%
West Potomac 90.8%
South County 90.3%

Significantly Under-Enrolled:
Langley 89.2%
Madison 85.1%
Falls Church 84.1%
TJ 82.5%
Mount Vernon 79.6%
Lewis 78.8%

At some point, FCPS will announce expansion plans for Centreville as part of its upcoming renovation. Chantilly and McLean remain overcrowded with either no solution offered (Chantilly/Stella Pekarsky) or a weak solution put in place that isn't adequately addressing the problem (McLean/Tholen). At the other end of the enrollment spectrum, Mount Vernon remains over 20% under-capacity, yet FCPS just expanded nearby West Potomac to 3000 seats, and Lewis has under 1700 students this fall while West Springfield now has over 2500 kids.

[Anonymous]

Where did you find this info?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where did you find this info?

FCPS released September 2022 enrollment information today in its "Monthly Membership Reports" and individual school profiles, and the current and planned number of permanent seats at each high school was taken from the FY 2023-27 Capital Improvement Program, issued earlier this year.

[Anonymous]

Latest Capital Improvement Program.

They update it every year, and is likely where OP got the info.

[Anonymous]

Monthly Membership Report can be accessed through https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/performance-and-accountability/student-reporting

Latest CIP is available at https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Adopted-FY2023-27-CIP.pdf

[Anonymous]

Edison on the other side of Lewis is essentially equal enrollment at West Springfield.

Edison HS is much closer to Lewis HS than West Springfield. WS is twice as many miles as Edison to Lewis, and a more than double the driving time due to having to cross the Mixing Bowl.

Perhaps rezoning from Edison to Lewis should be your focus instead of this odd fixation on WSHS.

In terms of student driving time and limiting fcps environmental footprint, Edison to Lewis just makes more sense.

[Anonymous]

Perhaps a good first step for FCPS before even entertaining rezoning or building additions would be to require all students to confirm their residency before they can register for classes.

I could be wrong, but I suspect there are many kids attending the over enrolled schools who do not actually live within the school zone.

Requiring a current utility bill every year at registration might fix the enrollment at schools in the 2-7% over capacity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Edison on the other side of Lewis is essentially equal enrollment at West Springfield.

Edison HS is much closer to Lewis HS than West Springfield. WS is twice as many miles as Edison to Lewis, and a more than double the driving time due to having to cross the Mixing Bowl.

Perhaps rezoning from Edison to Lewis should be your focus instead of this odd fixation on WSHS.

In terms of student driving time and limiting fcps environmental footprint, Edison to Lewis just makes more sense.

OK. I'm not fixated on West Springfield. It's odd that it got expanded but is already over-capacity again while Lewis remains well below capacity and has the lowest enrollment of any high school in the county. You're right that part of Edison could theoretically be moved to Lewis as well, although its enrollment this fall (2250) is 400 students lower than West Springfield's (2650).

[Anonymous]

The monthly membership reports go back to 2006-07. County-wide the number of high school students this fall is the largest it's been at any time since the fall of 2006. The number of middle-school students continued to decline this year and is about the same number as a decade ago. The number of elementary school students is up this fall, but still well below pre-Covid levels and closer to the levels back in 2009 and 2010. Guess we'll see if that translates into lower numbers of high school students in the coming years - it seems like the trends are very lumpy with some schools continuing to see enrollment increases and others flat or declining.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Edison on the other side of Lewis is essentially equal enrollment at West Springfield.

Edison HS is much closer to Lewis HS than West Springfield. WS is twice as many miles as Edison to Lewis, and a more than double the driving time due to having to cross the Mixing Bowl.

Perhaps rezoning from Edison to Lewis should be your focus instead of this odd fixation on WSHS.

In terms of student driving time and limiting fcps environmental footprint, Edison to Lewis just makes more sense.

OK. I'm not fixated on West Springfield. It's odd that it got expanded but is already over-capacity again while Lewis remains well below capacity and has the lowest enrollment of any high school in the county. You're right that part of Edison could theoretically be moved to Lewis as well, although its enrollment this fall (2250) is 400 students lower than West Springfield's (2650).

WSHS is overenrolled in part because it had a flood of class of 25 and 26 kids move into the zone over the past few years. Once those kids graduate, the numbers should settle back down.

Irving is down around 200 students from the past 2 years now that those 2 giant classes have moved on.

I think the WSHS class of 2023 is very large too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Edison on the other side of Lewis is essentially equal enrollment at West Springfield.

Edison HS is much closer to Lewis HS than West Springfield. WS is twice as many miles as Edison to Lewis, and a more than double the driving time due to having to cross the Mixing Bowl.

Perhaps rezoning from Edison to Lewis should be your focus instead of this odd fixation on WSHS.

In terms of student driving time and limiting fcps environmental footprint, Edison to Lewis just makes more sense.

If they would just put daventry back to Lewis it would be fine. That neighborhood already is closer to Lewis than wshs. Parents just fussed. Put them at Garfield/key/Lewis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The monthly membership reports go back to 2006-07. County-wide the number of high school students this fall is the largest it's been at any time since the fall of 2006. The number of middle-school students continued to decline this year and is about the same number as a decade ago. The number of elementary school students is up this fall, but still well below pre-Covid levels and closer to the levels back in 2009 and 2010. Guess we'll see if that translates into lower numbers of high school students in the coming years - it seems like the trends are very lumpy with some schools continuing to see enrollment increases and others flat or declining.

But we need to fix this now! Just because the number of middle school students and elementary school students has declined doesn't mean that high schools aren't overenrolled right now!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:September 2022 FCPS HS enrollments vs. current or planned permanent capacity:

Severely Over-Crowded:

Centreville 133.1%
Chantilly 129.8%
McLean 122.1%

Modestly Over-Crowded to Modestly Under-Enrolled:

West Springfield 105.8%
Woodson 105.6%
Edison 105.2%
Marshall 102.6%
Oakton 102.1%
Robinson 99.9%
Fairfax 97.6%
Annandale 96.4%
Hayfield 96.0%
Westfield 93.8%
Herndon 93.6%
Justice 93.3%
Lake Braddock 92.7%
South Lakes 92.5%
West Potomac 90.8%
South County 90.3%

Significantly Under-Enrolled:
Langley 89.2%
Madison 85.1%
Falls Church 84.1%
TJ 82.5%
Mount Vernon 79.6%
Lewis 78.8%

At some point, FCPS will announce expansion plans for Centreville as part of its upcoming renovation. Chantilly and McLean remain overcrowded with either no solution offered (Chantilly/Stella Pekarsky) or a weak solution put in place that isn't adequately addressing the problem (McLean/Tholen). At the other end of the enrollment spectrum, Mount Vernon remains over 20% under-capacity, yet FCPS just expanded nearby West Potomac to 3000 seats, and Lewis has under 1700 students this fall while West Springfield now has over 2500 kids.

I’m surprised at the Madison number given that this forum never focuses on it (versus Langley). We are Vienna slated for Marshall and my guess that will only grow given Tyson’s expansion and affordable housing built up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The monthly membership reports go back to 2006-07. County-wide the number of high school students this fall is the largest it's been at any time since the fall of 2006. The number of middle-school students continued to decline this year and is about the same number as a decade ago. The number of elementary school students is up this fall, but still well below pre-Covid levels and closer to the levels back in 2009 and 2010. Guess we'll see if that translates into lower numbers of high school students in the coming years - it seems like the trends are very lumpy with some schools continuing to see enrollment increases and others flat or declining.

But we need to fix this now! Just because the number of middle school students and elementary school students has declined doesn't mean that high schools aren't overenrolled right now!

It’s hard to know exactly how the lower MS and ES numbers will translate into future HS enrollments, though, because Covid created so much noise with respect to enrollment trends. Parents who pulled their kids out for private ES or MS may send them back to public ES. Then there are the kids who arrive in the county and are already high school age.

FCPS has shown a lot of tolerance for severe overcrowding at some of its high schools for a long time, certainly longer than just about any other public school system in the region.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The monthly membership reports go back to 2006-07. County-wide the number of high school students this fall is the largest it's been at any time since the fall of 2006. The number of middle-school students continued to decline this year and is about the same number as a decade ago. The number of elementary school students is up this fall, but still well below pre-Covid levels and closer to the levels back in 2009 and 2010. Guess we'll see if that translates into lower numbers of high school students in the coming years - it seems like the trends are very lumpy with some schools continuing to see enrollment increases and others flat or declining.

But we need to fix this now! Just because the number of middle school students and elementary school students has declined doesn't mean that high schools aren't overenrolled right now!

It is stupid and short sighted to rezone and disrupt a bunch of kids education for a problem that will resolve itself when the next 2 or 3 classes graduate.

(I am not talking about the schools that are 20% above capacity, but about the schools in the 1-10% above capacity.)