Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Funny how your friend has the luxury to ignore the fact that some people have to work in order to feed their families or keep their houses, and the 2-day option is really the only choice they have.

Agree. But, you could have our situation with a middle schooler with the earliest start time and an ES’er at a school with the latest start time so even if we sent our kids, we would have a total of 4 hours twice a week without a kid at home. That does nothing for a family with two parents working outside the home.

[Anonymous]

If he wanted to be taken seriously, he should have been honest about his employer up front.

Also, he has high schoolers who can cognitively learn at home. So his calculus is different from a parent of a child with ASD, or a first grader.

[Anonymous]

He sure spent a lot of time building out that incredibly flawed statistical analogy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh, this post is all over my FB feed. It’s not particularly well written or thought out and it’s so rambling. I don’t know who this guy is (he says he’s no expert) and I don’t particularly care what a non-expert stranger thinks.

Whoever the hell he is, he wrote it because he wanted to go viral, and he has gone viral - a friend of mine who lives in Arizona sent it to me this morning.

A million percent agree. It's navel gazing and not particularly insighful and feels like he is writing to justify hair decisions instead of just making them. People who need likes and validation are tiresome. At least IG models own their motives. This is under the guise of what? Informing people? Read the room dude, we all know all of this already. We also know that some of your math a s premises are not solid. I'm not pro one option over the other from a public health standpoint, bc we have evidence that it can be done from other countries but we don't know if it can here yet bc our society will not shut down any other sectors in order to accomplish it it seems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Schools will be closed a few weeks after they open. This is all so academic and I think deep down we all know it

👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆

What does this mean?

It means we will likely hit all the metrics to put us back into phase1 or 2, to get spikes back in control wittin a month or 2.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Okay, fine.

If 50% contract the virus, 151 will die.
If 25% contract the virus, 75 will die.
If 10% contract the virus, 30 will die.

Are those numbers okay? I hope not.

You have to divide all those by 100, because the fatality rate he cited is actually 0.0016%, not 0.0016.

It’s a fair question to ask, but let’s at least try to get the numbers right.

FWIW 0.0016% is about the same death rate we have for all kids under age 5 annually drowning in backyard pools in the US (regardless if they have one, obviously the rate is higher for those who do than those who don’t).

There are many other factors to consider (spread to teachers and family members who are much higher risk even if not otherwise at-risk, for example) and I’m largely sympathetic to the arguments about uncertainty and people not feeling comfortable with the risks, but it’s important to acknowledge that the risks will likely never be 0 (just like pools, or walking/driving to school, or the flu, or countless other things) and so we should try to be as accurate as possible when discussing the magnitude of risk.

How about changing the focus from the kids for one minute...what happens when their teacher is incapacitated for weeks, or even dies, from COVID? Working parents will have to figure out a plan for 3+ weeks. If the teacher doesn’t come back, they may or may not have a teacher for the rest of the year, especially at the elementary level. But, from what I read yesterday on here teachers with asthma or who are overweight are asking for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Okay, fine.

If 50% contract the virus, 151 will die.
If 25% contract the virus, 75 will die.
If 10% contract the virus, 30 will die.

Are those numbers okay? I hope not.

First of all, the mortality rate is 0.0016% - so the original numbers were off by a factor of 100 in the first place. So in his original argument, it would have been 3 kids, not 302. Add to that parents with kids with underlying conditions are likely to select DL and that at a high number only 25% would contract the virus in the worst case (it shouldn't get anywhere near that with the mitigations being put in place), the deaths of Fairfax county students are likely to be 0 from COVID. However, if we force kids to stay home and continue to isolate, I highly doubt the deaths from that scenario would be likely to be 0.

DP. Where did you get the 0.0016% number? The 0.16% number is more plausible. If you use the officially confirmed infections and death numbers, the overall death rate for Virginia is 2.8%. Some estimated the actual infections could be 10 times as the confirmed cases, which brings the death rate to 0.28%. Covid is more deadly than seasonal flu. Flu has a death rate about 0.1%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Okay, fine.

If 50% contract the virus, 151 will die.
If 25% contract the virus, 75 will die.
If 10% contract the virus, 30 will die.

Are those numbers okay? I hope not.

First of all, the mortality rate is 0.0016% - so the original numbers were off by a factor of 100 in the first place. So in his original argument, it would have been 3 kids, not 302. Add to that parents with kids with underlying conditions are likely to select DL and that at a high number only 25% would contract the virus in the worst case (it shouldn't get anywhere near that with the mitigations being put in place), the deaths of Fairfax county students are likely to be 0 from COVID. However, if we force kids to stay home and continue to isolate, I highly doubt the deaths from that scenario would be likely to be 0.

DP. Where did you get the 0.0016% number? The 0.16% number is more plausible. If you use the officially confirmed infections and death numbers, the overall death rate for Virginia is 2.8%. Some estimated the actual infections could be 10 times as the confirmed cases, which brings the death rate to 0.28%. Covid is more deadly than seasonal flu. Flu has a death rate about 0.1%.

DP. Children are not at significant risk of dying of covid.

As of July 8, 29 children ages 0-14 have died of covid. In the same time period, February through July, 100 children ages 0-14 have died of the flu.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Not only that this math is ALL wrong. It's not .0016 it's .0016% which the author admits later in the comments to his posts but doesn't seem to fix up front before this shared around. 189K X .0016% is not 302 but 3.02! HUGE DIFFERENCE and agains that's assuming all 189K FCPS kids get it, which is impossible especially since all 189K won't be in-person. Even if you say 3/4 go in person that's 141,750 and even if you say 3/4 of them get covid that is 106,313 kids. And then if you say .0016% of them die that is 1.7 or 2 kids.

I can't listen to man who "analyzes data" and misses the mark by a factor of 100. But by all means, please listen to him. The less people in school, the better for my kids.

[Anonymous]

Let's face it. The real reason many people wants children back in school is about child care, so that parents can go back to offices and factories. The businesses that depend on their parents coming back and producing regardless of who gets sick or who dies. This has very little to do with education or the quality of which wouldn't matter very much. It is not about kids social interaction but about adults social interaction which some are missing very much huddled inside their homes. We have become a nation without direction or sense.

[Anonymous]

This post going viral is a beautiful case study in the way misinformation spreads. This guy, grabs the number .0016 from the internet NOT understanding it is actually .0016 PERCENT. It is 3.02 kids, not 302. And that’s assuming all 189,000 students test positive. It’s really a fatality rate of less than one kid.

As soon as I got to the 3rd paragraph I knew his math had to be wrong bc if kids are not dropping dead all over the country. I’m very disturbed how many of my friends believed this number and shared this on social media.

And if you say 1 kid dying is still too much, you better rethink leaving your house bc life is full of risks all day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

.0016*1237 is just under 2. If you understand statistics, that's entirely consistent with his/her post, and the numbers we have are under confinement.

it's .0016%%%%%% . So you have to multiply 1,237 by .000016 = .019792 = 0 which is what we have.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Oh the drama!

Oh the”read this long and suffering diatribe about why I am right and this is not a rehash of the 1000+ other same dribble!”

Btw do people realize that high school sports have started practices? Youth baseball - they are out there too. No doubt that many of these people claiming in person students are “teacher killers!” Are also the ones sending their kids back to sports because “that’s different! My kid needs the socialization/exercise/ etc and besides I can’t write self righteous commentary on that !”

Do people realize that this same author is touting a baseball tournament in August on his FB page?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: This post going viral is a beautiful case study in the way misinformation spreads. This guy, grabs the number .0016 from the internet NOT understanding it is actually .0016 PERCENT. It is 3.02 kids, not 302. And that’s assuming all 189,000 students test positive. It’s really a fatality rate of less than one kid.

As soon as I got to the 3rd paragraph I knew his math had to be wrong bc if kids are not dropping dead all over the country. I’m very disturbed how many of my friends believed this number and shared this on social media.

And if you say 1 kid dying is still too much, you better rethink leaving your house bc life is full of risks all day.

Excellent post. Can you post this as a comment to all your friends’ FB post repeating this guy? Also mention he works for NEA. I have been sitting on my hands all day but I hate FB conflict so I don’t want to post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yeah this post is gross and it’s not the best thing ever. Hiding at home will not make this thing go away or help essential personnel, Amazon delivery drivers, store clerks, etc. I’m a privileged person that can work at home and I am choosing hybrid. I am not selfish, I’m making a choice that is offered, as are all of our neighbors and friends except one. I think people are going to be surprised by the numbers. It’s easy to get lost in the online postings but they don’t represent everyone.

I’m speculating at least 50% teachers and students choose hybrid.

Higher in many schools. I have seen the numbers. In my school alone we're over 60% for both students and teachers who have already filled out the form. Granted people have until the 15th to not only respond but to always change their response.