Reply to Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice

Forum Index » Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS)

Reply to "Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?[/quote]

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.  [/quote]

Okay, fine.

If 50% contract the virus, 151 will die. 
If 25% contract the virus, 75 will die.
If 10% contract the virus, 30 will die.

Are those numbers okay? I hope not. [/quote]

First of all, the mortality rate is 0.0016% - so the original numbers were off by a factor of 100 in the first place.  So in his original argument, it would have been 3 kids, not 302.  Add to that parents with kids with underlying conditions are likely to select DL and that at a high number only 25% would contract the virus in the worst case (it shouldn't get anywhere near that with the mitigations being put in place), the deaths of Fairfax county students are likely to be 0 from COVID.  However, if we force kids to stay home and continue to isolate, I highly doubt the deaths from that scenario would be likely to be 0.

[/quote]

DP. Where did you get the 0.0016% number? The 0.16% number is more plausible. If you use the officially confirmed infections and death numbers, the overall death rate for Virginia is 2.8%. Some estimated the actual infections could be 10 times as the confirmed cases, which brings the death rate to 0.28%. Covid is more deadly than seasonal flu. Flu has a death rate about 0.1%.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics