Reply to Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?[/quote]

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.  [/quote]

Not only that this math is ALL wrong. It's not .0016 it's .0016% which the author admits later in the comments to his posts but doesn't seem to fix up front before this shared around. 189K  X .0016% is not 302 but 3.02! HUGE DIFFERENCE and agains that's assuming all 189K FCPS kids get it, which is impossible especially since all 189K won't be in-person. Even if you say 3/4 go in person that's 141,750 and even if you say 3/4 of them get covid that is 106,313 kids. And then if you say .0016% of them die that is 1.7 or 2 kids.

I can't listen to man who "analyzes data" and misses the mark by a factor of 100. But by all means, please listen to him. The less people in school, the better for my kids. 
[/quote]

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