US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

You didn’t watch the video did you. Confess.

I did. Happy to eat crow if the overall death rate data eventually bears out that this is as deadly as the media has been making it out to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

So let those who are not young and in perfect health eat cake, right Trumpster?

+1
The heartless meanderings from ignorant magats is just so disgusting.

Heartless? What about all of the people who have now suddenly lost their jobs and are in precarious situations because of what could be a MASSIVE overreaction. This is a complex problem. Let’s have some nuance and stop with the silly name calling. Sending love in these trying times

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

so you just don't care that people are being turned away from hospitals because there aren't enough beds. And those beds are NOT being taken by people with a cough. The doctors would not allow that. It is a problem when the number of people who need ventilators is larger than then number available. How can you not see this?

I do. Italy is particularly bad for a number of reasons: average age, tactile culture, air pollution and attendant respiratory problems. That being said, there is still no evidence that “more people than usual” are dying because of this in Italy. Much of the same holds for Wuhan and Iran. You cannot apply that to the rest of the world. Why is the media not using Germany as a benchmark?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

Can you provide data to back it up? Since this is a new disease, those are all new deaths. You need to carry a form to go out buy groceries in Italy. Without this type of lockdown, the number of deaths could be even higher. The death rate for Covid-19 is 1.3% for USA and 8.5% for Italy. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%.

New disease does not necessarily mean new death (i.e. death that would not have happened but for corona) because there are confounders. In one Italian study 99% of deaths were patients that had one or more comorbidities.

The rates you cite are far too high. Remember, only the symptomatic and worst cases are even being tested right now due to short supply of tests. There are plenty of people walking around with CV who have not been tested for it and probably never will be. Positive tests are over represented currently, and probably rightly so.

These are released weekly. Nothing is airtight with ANY data set coming out right now, because of the mania, but this does give some pause.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

The death rate is from the official numbers released. We have enough sample size -- 20,000 for US and 48,000 for Italy -- that the death rate calculated has a high confidence of being accurate. If we have more testing, we will also have more deaths that were attributed to 'flu' or 'pneumonia'. There is no dispute Covid-19 is more contagious and deadly than regular flu. The key failure for the US government is the leadership believed this is just another glorified flu and wasted two months to not act.

[Anonymous]

Per CDC website, as of Friday 3/20, there have been 54,000 tests administered (including both public and private tests), and 15,000 people tested positive. 200 deaths so far.

[Anonymous]

They didn't just waste two months. They poo-poohed it. They sold stocks while hyping the market and they did NOTHING to prepare. Literally nothing, despite warnings from Intel and the medical communities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Per CDC website, as of Friday 3/20, there have been 54,000 tests administered (including both public and private tests), and 15,000 people tested positive. 200 deaths so far.

On 2/28 and 3/3, Mike Pence said there would be millions of tests available shortly. 54,000 tests is paltry. Where are the millions of tests? Trump said "anyone who wants a test can get a test" He lied.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

Can you provide data to back it up? Since this is a new disease, those are all new deaths. You need to carry a form to go out buy groceries in Italy. Without this type of lockdown, the number of deaths could be even higher. The death rate for Covid-19 is 1.3% for USA and 8.5% for Italy. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%.

New disease does not necessarily mean new death (i.e. death that would not have happened but for corona) because there are confounders. In one Italian study 99% of deaths were patients that had one or more comorbidities.

The rates you cite are far too high. Remember, only the symptomatic and worst cases are even being tested right now due to short supply of tests. There are plenty of people walking around with CV who have not been tested for it and probably never will be. Positive tests are over represented currently, and probably rightly so.

These are released weekly. Nothing is airtight with ANY data set coming out right now, because of the mania, but this does give some pause.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

The death rate is from the official numbers released. We have enough sample size -- 20,000 for US and 48,000 for Italy -- that the death rate calculated has a high confidence of being accurate. If we have more testing, we will also have more deaths that were attributed to 'flu' or 'pneumonia'. There is no dispute Covid-19 is more contagious and deadly than regular flu. The key failure for the US government is the leadership believed this is just another glorified flu and wasted two months to not act.

Yes and the “official” numbers released all have massive problems and biases. Don’t appeal to authority. You are acting like these are data sets from journals in peer reviewed articles lol, please. Everything is a rush job right now.

The actual fatality of COVID 19 vis a vis common flu actually IS under dispute. More commentators and analyses are coming out crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

The point is none of the data right now is reliable because we don’t know what is being counted and even if you do look at data available, nothing is close to as bad as what you’re projecting. Is there some particular reason why the US will fare as badly as you’re projecting other than you’re little formula? This isn’t some plug and play scenario.

We will see indeed.

PP told you why . Trumpsters. Some people are relying on this to be the thing that seals the deal on Trump. It has to be monumentally bad for that to happen. If things aren't monumentally bad and back to normal by May or June this will look like a huge overreaction. Trump and his supporters will claim liberal democratic media hype. The anti establishment Tea Party crowd will be in an uproar over civil liberties. Making it just a tad harder for the desired landslide in November.

I also think some people are addicted to disaster porn.

My projections have nothing to do with Trump. They are totally technical. I don't know how it will play politically even if it is as bad as I say, because Trump will spin it to his advantage no matter what.

I admit I like disaster porn. But that's not the same as welcoming disasters. I am not a sadist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

Can you provide data to back it up? Since this is a new disease, those are all new deaths. You need to carry a form to go out buy groceries in Italy. Without this type of lockdown, the number of deaths could be even higher. The death rate for Covid-19 is 1.3% for USA and 8.5% for Italy. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%.

New disease does not necessarily mean new death (i.e. death that would not have happened but for corona) because there are confounders. In one Italian study 99% of deaths were patients that had one or more comorbidities.

The rates you cite are far too high. Remember, only the symptomatic and worst cases are even being tested right now due to short supply of tests. There are plenty of people walking around with CV who have not been tested for it and probably never will be. Positive tests are over represented currently, and probably rightly so.

These are released weekly. Nothing is airtight with ANY data set coming out right now, because of the mania, but this does give some pause.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

The death rate is from the official numbers released. We have enough sample size -- 20,000 for US and 48,000 for Italy -- that the death rate calculated has a high confidence of being accurate. If we have more testing, we will also have more deaths that were attributed to 'flu' or 'pneumonia'. There is no dispute Covid-19 is more contagious and deadly than regular flu. The key failure for the US government is the leadership believed this is just another glorified flu and wasted two months to not act.

Yes and the “official” numbers released all have massive problems and biases. Don’t appeal to authority. You are acting like these are data sets from journals in peer reviewed articles lol, please. Everything is a rush job right now.

The actual fatality of COVID 19 vis a vis common flu actually IS under dispute. More commentators and analyses are coming out crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative.

DP. No it's not. All those who are "crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative" are merely denialists.

[Anonymous]

"mainstream narrative"


Please

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

Can you provide data to back it up? Since this is a new disease, those are all new deaths. You need to carry a form to go out buy groceries in Italy. Without this type of lockdown, the number of deaths could be even higher. The death rate for Covid-19 is 1.3% for USA and 8.5% for Italy. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%.

New disease does not necessarily mean new death (i.e. death that would not have happened but for corona) because there are confounders. In one Italian study 99% of deaths were patients that had one or more comorbidities.

The rates you cite are far too high. Remember, only the symptomatic and worst cases are even being tested right now due to short supply of tests. There are plenty of people walking around with CV who have not been tested for it and probably never will be. Positive tests are over represented currently, and probably rightly so.

These are released weekly. Nothing is airtight with ANY data set coming out right now, because of the mania, but this does give some pause.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

The death rate is from the official numbers released. We have enough sample size -- 20,000 for US and 48,000 for Italy -- that the death rate calculated has a high confidence of being accurate. If we have more testing, we will also have more deaths that were attributed to 'flu' or 'pneumonia'. There is no dispute Covid-19 is more contagious and deadly than regular flu. The key failure for the US government is the leadership believed this is just another glorified flu and wasted two months to not act.

Yes and the “official” numbers released all have massive problems and biases. Don’t appeal to authority. You are acting like these are data sets from journals in peer reviewed articles lol, please. Everything is a rush job right now.

The actual fatality of COVID 19 vis a vis common flu actually IS under dispute. More commentators and analyses are coming out crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative.

DP. No it's not. All those who are "crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative" are merely denialists.

You mean like this Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, population health, biomedical data science and statistics? Ok cool...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

Virginia data.
1% hospitalized.
2 deaths (you can go to press releases and find more details)

What isn’t in the numbers is the 4-6 weeks spent in ICU on a ventilator.

3/21 stats: 152 cases. 25 hospitalized. How is that 1%?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's not just old people who are dying. But let them eat cake, right Trumpsters?

Most of the younger people who have died from this had other underlying conditions. And even at this it is still mostly old people dying on that manner. Average age reports of over 80. Very very few healthy young people with no other underlying conditions have died from this.

You know people with underlying conditions can hear you, right?

Sure, the point is not to diminish the deaths. It is that the scare factor is greatly exaggerated. If we didn’t have every tom, dick and harry with a minor cough running to hospitals thinking they’re going to die, they might be better positioned to serve the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are actually at threat from this virus.

"Everyone dies alone"

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130

If that video doesn't scare you, PP above, then you are not human.

The excess mortality rate for many of the “hardest hit” countries in Europe show negligible if any uptick in deaths vis a vis similar periods in previous years. We just didn’t have video and imagery blasts from hospitals during those periods. This is a sad situation, for sure. But it’s maddening that the hype has made it much much worse than it needed to be and contributed to overwhelming some hospital systems.

Can you provide data to back it up? Since this is a new disease, those are all new deaths. You need to carry a form to go out buy groceries in Italy. Without this type of lockdown, the number of deaths could be even higher. The death rate for Covid-19 is 1.3% for USA and 8.5% for Italy. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%.

New disease does not necessarily mean new death (i.e. death that would not have happened but for corona) because there are confounders. In one Italian study 99% of deaths were patients that had one or more comorbidities.

The rates you cite are far too high. Remember, only the symptomatic and worst cases are even being tested right now due to short supply of tests. There are plenty of people walking around with CV who have not been tested for it and probably never will be. Positive tests are over represented currently, and probably rightly so.

These are released weekly. Nothing is airtight with ANY data set coming out right now, because of the mania, but this does give some pause.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

The death rate is from the official numbers released. We have enough sample size -- 20,000 for US and 48,000 for Italy -- that the death rate calculated has a high confidence of being accurate. If we have more testing, we will also have more deaths that were attributed to 'flu' or 'pneumonia'. There is no dispute Covid-19 is more contagious and deadly than regular flu. The key failure for the US government is the leadership believed this is just another glorified flu and wasted two months to not act.

Yes and the “official” numbers released all have massive problems and biases. Don’t appeal to authority. You are acting like these are data sets from journals in peer reviewed articles lol, please. Everything is a rush job right now.

The actual fatality of COVID 19 vis a vis common flu actually IS under dispute. More commentators and analyses are coming out crunching numbers and questioning the mainstream narrative.

This is real life. We make decisions on the fly with messy data. Just like war. In real life, we are generals, not historians. We don't have the luxury of waiting for better information.

ALL of the evidence is that this is more deadly than the flu. All of it. Even accounting for the uncertainties (there are methods for dealing with that). But even with years of well-established data, many people still don't get a flu shot. Why should this be different?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This is a massive failure of communism, state control, authoritarianism and a far left wing government who wanted to give the facade that they had everything under control but didn't. China is 10000% at fault for the vast majority of this. Moronic Democrats will attempt to politicize this for cheap gains, but the general public isn't stupid. We all know it was because China tried to cover it up, silenced doctors, wasted months since Nov/Dec to raise the alarm, destroyed and falsified data, and let millions of people travel from where the problem was to all over the planet.

The ability to contain and mitigate was lost all the way back when China let 5 million people leave Wuhan during Lunar New Year. Absolutely NO country on Earth can contain it at this rate. If Trump is to blame, then why is Italy suffering so bad? If Trump is to blame, then why is Iran digging mass burial graves? If Trump is to blame, why can't a country like Denmark control it? Get bent. If we enacted a no fly/banned all people from China from coming in back in Nov. Democrats would be screaming about racism.

It is a massive failure of both China and Trump. China failed to contain and Trump failed to prepare (due to his arrogance). It is not an “either / or” scenario. The only thing that really matters is finding a vaccine or other drugs that limit its impact. Once that happens, things will start to return to normal. Until then uncertainty will reign and death rates will accelerate. Isolation and testing will help slow it down, but due to Trump’s lack of preparation and arrogant messaging we are behind the testing and isolation curve. Thankfully, we are a federated nation and governors are starting to take the actions Trump has failed to do. He’s in over his head, and it’s obvious, but we’ll persevere despite him.

How does one contain a disease that can be spread by asymptomatic people?

In a small town in Italy, they tested everyone and quarantined all positives, including asymptomatic. There was no more transmission.

In South Korea, they've tested a lot, and quarantined all positives including asymptomatic.

Etc.

Trump bough stock in the company that makes this stuff. Further, people who use chloroquine to treat lupus have already started to get in touch with their doctors to report that they can no longer get their prescriptions.

Trump is jeopardizing the lives of people using a proven treatment.