Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think if the election was held last week, Trump would have won. And if the election was held now, Harris will win.

The reason is based on contextual cues to gauge relative momentum. Trump had some favorable polls and the trends were in his direction and the market responded accordingly, stocks up and bonds down (yields up). The “Trump Trade”. In the past few days there has been some polls showing Trumps momentum to have halted and as a result, the stock market has responded accordingly. Stocks have been down three days in a row.

Maybe President Harris will eventually be good for stocks. But that doesn’t matter. Right now investors, using a lot more resources than anyone could have to implement trading strategies based on election outcomes are tipping their hats.

If Harris wins, I would fully expect the market to fall heavily after Election Day through the inauguration.

I work in finance and you are a complete regard, the stock market lull is driven by the share buyback blackout period and opex

[Anonymous]

We are only on page 8 so it’s still early days…..but this has been one of the most rational and balanced threads I have seen in the political discussion forum.

Well done everyone! (Except you, grocery prices guy. That was quite a take).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read and no cannot currently link that internal leaked GOP polls are quite bad for Trump, and separately read that a lot of conveniently blue-checked yet very low-follower X accounts with trash polls favoring Trump are his only current campaign strategy.

I am very confident Harris/Walz will win, there’s a well-coordinated GOTV campaign, the early voting is largely from Democratic strongholds, the campaign is extremely well-funded, broadly supported, and well-run. I think the trolling here has some folks spun up but there is no utility in worrying. I don’t think Trump has it in him to take this, and I don’t think post Georgia voting decision, that there’s a good-enough campaign to do more than feebly try to push against legitimate election results by the GOP. Police aren’t going to repeat January 6; they aren’t going to get hit and maimed and killed for a lunatic fringe to shit-fit over a Harris win.

European reporting which of course does not go fringe-poll-rabbit-hole largely supports a Harris landslide FWIW.

Very good. I do think Harris wins. The fake GOP polls are transparent. They are in a panic and their guy is zoning out at rallies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think if the election was held last week, Trump would have won. And if the election was held now, Harris will win.

The reason is based on contextual cues to gauge relative momentum. Trump had some favorable polls and the trends were in his direction and the market responded accordingly, stocks up and bonds down (yields up). The “Trump Trade”. In the past few days there has been some polls showing Trumps momentum to have halted and as a result, the stock market has responded accordingly. Stocks have been down three days in a row.

Maybe President Harris will eventually be good for stocks. But that doesn’t matter. Right now investors, using a lot more resources than anyone could have to implement trading strategies based on election outcomes are tipping their hats.

If Harris wins, I would fully expect the market to fall heavily after Election Day through the inauguration.

I work in finance and you are a complete regard, the stock market lull is driven by the share buyback blackout period and opex

This is such a funny reply, because for someone who claims to work in finance it’s totally nonsensical. But I guess it’s good enough to fool people who have no clue at all. So well done, I guess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

PP here. Should have also noted that Dem Senate candidates in swing states are now avoiding Biden and Harris and running ads showcasing their ability to work with Trump. That is not a good sign for Harris.

Harris’s lack of competence really should have been a topic more in discussion when Biden dropped out. It’s evident seeing her speak that she’s unprepared. She reads her remarks like it’s the first time she’s ever seen those words and frequently uses the wrong syllable for emphasis or inflection.

The weird thing is that there was a lot of reporting just 2 years ago about how she could not manage her VP office and that people were quitting in droves due to the toxic way she manages her teams.

It feels that the Democratic Party - whoever that is - sleepwalked into this election when alarm bells should have been ringing at least a couple of years ago.

Harris has not been a good VP at all. In addition to contributing little in terms of policy substance, she failed to use the office to build the base of support that would propel her to the presidency.

Biden seemed to realize this, but reacted foolishly by gambling on himself to get reelected. This was madness. His net approval ratings have been underwater since the Afghanistan debacle and his age meant that he was never going to be able to campaign effectively, regardless of who the Republicans nominated.

When he finally saw the writing on the wall, there was still time for a mini-primary to play out. The Obamas withheld their endorsement of Kamala for a few days, which seemed to indicate that this is what they were lobbying for. It would have been a bit messy, but probably would have led to a better outcome than what we have now.

Of course, Biden should have seen the writing on the wall last year and got out of the way in time for a proper primary to play out. I am not confident that a better candidate than Kamala would have emerged, but no one knew much about Barack in 2007 either. Even if Kamala had prevailed, it would have at least given her the exposure needed for the electorate to figure out what she was about.

Ultimately, it felt like the Democratic Party establishment were afraid of provoking a backlash among segments of the party by subjecting Kamala to a primary. But those segments were never going to decide the election. Moderate voters in the rust belt will. That the party favored the sensibilities of party stalwarts over the people they needed to win over to win the election suggests something is seriously broken.

When this is all said and done, the Democratic Party has a lot of introspection ahead of it.

So what you're saying is that the Democratic Party establishment handcuffed themselves to an inadequate candidate because they were afraid of some angry 20-something women on Twitter calling them racists. Can they possibly be that dense?

There was certainly the view that subjecting Harris to a primary would not have been the decent thing to do. Certainly there would have been accusations from some quarters of racism and sexism. And I have to believe that was a good part of the reason why a mini-primary was never held.

That decision may have been good for party unity. But it seems that it may just cost the party the election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Right now I think it's Trump.


Watching extermination squads go through Gaza with full US support and no object from the VP has totally taken away any enthusiasm and hope I felt back in August. This blind support of ethnic cleansing will cost the election. I know Trump won't be any better (in fact, will be worse), but the main push right now is for the youth and the apathetic. Neither of them will feel motivated based on the foreign policy of the current government.

And the irony of course is all the jews here who will be voting for trump because they think he supports isreal are too stupid to realize that trump will be sending them to gas chambers by 2026, just like his hero Adolf did. I guess then they’ll feel some remorse for getting him elected.

I guess he’ll start with his daughter and son in law?

[Anonymous]

If we take early voting as a proxy for enthusiasm, things do not bode well for Harris:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/early-voting-trends-2024-2020-visuals-dg/index.html

[Anonymous]

I feel Harris is going to win, but we won't know until around Nov 10.

It is going to be very close, but Harris is going to get the last minute undecided. I don't think Trump can get anyone new at this point. He seems to continue to be his own worst enemy.

[Anonymous]

Trump.

2016 all over again but with a candidate far weaker than HC was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I don’t play individual stocks. I have mutual funds. The best one was earning 5% in the early days of Trump. 7% in 2018, well before COVID. Since the beginning of 2024, it’s earning 12.35%. Thanks Joe and Kamala.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really don't know. I'm in Florida and I think the results might surprise people. The pot and abortion amendments will draw a lot of people to the polls. I see the Amendment 4 commercials every single time I watch tv, and GOP have no good ones.

Trump seems to be the favored candidate here in Naples.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. […]

You’d be about the only economist to think Trump would be better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

I’m sorry, what state is “HA”?

[Anonymous]

“It’s the economy, stupid.”—James Carville

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win - very close popular vote could go either way. I predict 49.4 trump 48.7 Harris.

Trump will win NC, HA. AZ, NV and PA.

I’m sorry, what state is “HA”?

My guess is GA.