Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Harris will lose because of Gaza

I don’t think most Americans give a cr*p about a dispute that’s been going on forever. Most Americans support Israel’s right to exists. This is a niche cause.

More voters will be deterred than Harris can afford to lose in a race this close. Not everyone is willing to ignore genocide for down payment assistance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think Harris is going to win, because the alternative is too horrifying to occupy my brain.

💯

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. […]

You’d be about the only economist to think Trump would be better.

Let me guess, you’re basing that on headlines you’ve read? An economist, like any expert, will find data that supports whatever conclusions they wish for. Being human, expert opinions will more often than not reflect political biases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

It’s betting markets. If they were truthful they’d have big payouts. How do you not understand this? Pay no attention to them unless you are a scummy gambling addict.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

Polymarket is owned by Peter Thiel, who is JD Vance's mentor and funder. There's a still-unexplained mass dump of $30 million that went into Polymarket to drive it to those numbers. The betting market has been manipulated.

This, plus my understanding is that Americans can't use Polymarket. It's all foreigners.

Wouldn't surprise me if it's also serving as a money laundering operation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don’t see how the betting markets could get it that wrong. It’s 60-40 for Trump right now, but of course with two weeks to go things could change

It’s betting markets. If they were truthful they’d have big payouts. How do you not understand this? Pay no attention to them unless you are a scummy gambling addict.

They’ve been very accurate, that’s why. And the spread is surprisingly large. Doesn’t mean they’re right of course, but I believe this is what the smart money is thinking at this time

[Anonymous]

The only reason I’d be inclined to put more weight behind betting markets is because there’s money involved. There’s no incentive to bet on an outcome that you don’t expect to happen. Polling offers little incentive for accurate or truthful responses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you?

Fed employee economist here replying back. This seriously has to be a troll ^^^. NOBODY could be so stupid as to actually think or say something like that.

I know there is this Fox News stereotype of the clueless urbanites who've never worked a real day of manual labor in the real world, but I believe it to be 99.999% a Republican trope. This kind of stuff ^^^ simply HAS to be a fake persona to perpetuate the stereotype.

I mean, I'm GS-15 and will surely make SES and my spouse is GS-14 and we both have a ton of degrees, and the kids' college is paid for, and the TSP fund looks pretty secure, and yet I'm still taken aback at the price of groceries. And I feel awful for anyone who is less than about the 75th percentile of wage earners, because the inflation on staples has got to be crippling for them.

TL;DR, shut up and go back to watching fox news and shaking your fist at clouds.

+100 PP is insufferable and I’m glad Trump has promised to cut some useless fed jobs. I’m sure he’ll retire and spend all his days at Costco.

[Anonymous]

Harris and it's rediculous

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Not a hard call. First, the polls clearly show he is gaining momentum in the home stretch. That is where you want to be. Second, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are both disasters. They had some unwarranted hype for a while, but every time people hear them speak, it becomes increasingly clear that neither of them is qualified for the job. It's shocking how inept Harris is for someone who has been in national politics for a while. She can't even credibly respond to basic questions. Really bad. Third, as a general matter, things are not good, and there are credible reasons for blaming the Democrats for the situation.

PP here. Should have also noted that Dem Senate candidates in swing states are now avoiding Biden and Harris and running ads showcasing their ability to work with Trump. That is not a good sign for Harris.

Harris’s lack of competence really should have been a topic more in discussion when Biden dropped out. It’s evident seeing her speak that she’s unprepared. She reads her remarks like it’s the first time she’s ever seen those words and frequently uses the wrong syllable for emphasis or inflection.

The weird thing is that there was a lot of reporting just 2 years ago about how she could not manage her VP office and that people were quitting in droves due to the toxic way she manages her teams.

It feels that the Democratic Party - whoever that is - sleepwalked into this election when alarm bells should have been ringing at least a couple of years ago.

Harris has not been a good VP at all. In addition to contributing little in terms of policy substance, she failed to use the office to build the base of support that would propel her to the presidency.

Biden seemed to realize this, but reacted foolishly by gambling on himself to get reelected. This was madness. His net approval ratings have been underwater since the Afghanistan debacle and his age meant that he was never going to be able to campaign effectively, regardless of who the Republicans nominated.

When he finally saw the writing on the wall, there was still time for a mini-primary to play out. The Obamas withheld their endorsement of Kamala for a few days, which seemed to indicate that this is what they were lobbying for. It would have been a bit messy, but probably would have led to a better outcome than what we have now.

Of course, Biden should have seen the writing on the wall last year and got out of the way in time for a proper primary to play out. I am not confident that a better candidate than Kamala would have emerged, but no one knew much about Barack in 2007 either. Even if Kamala had prevailed, it would have at least given her the exposure needed for the electorate to figure out what she was about.

Ultimately, it felt like the Democratic Party establishment were afraid of provoking a backlash among segments of the party by subjecting Kamala to a primary. But those segments were never going to decide the election. Moderate voters in the rust belt will. That the party favored the sensibilities of party stalwarts over the people they needed to win over to win the election suggests something is seriously broken.

When this is all said and done, the Democratic Party has a lot of introspection ahead of it.

This is a very excellent summary of the situation and how we got here.

One of the biggest tells for me about Harris and her mentality is that I go back and think about what Obama did in 2007 and 2008. He assembled, motivated and led a brilliant of people willing to put their future careers in politics on the line to take on the presumptive nominee, Clinton. I do a lot of recruitment now and it is really impressive what he built from scratch.

Harris instead over her time in the Senate and VP barely even has any loyal staff or advisers. And the clarifying moment for me was when she took over Biden’s campaign apparatus, one of her people was quoted saying “we get the A team now”.

That caused me to think that Obama assembled his own A Team. And it led me to recall that several Democratic senators have cultivated loyal advisers and supporters through their staff and help to place them in good jobs throughout DC as both a reward and to expand their influence. It caused me to think about how being from CA, Harris probably gets inundated with enquiries from motivated, highly skilled and qualified job seekers that she could hire to build a great team. And it caused me to think how crazy it is for Harris to think that there is just one set of good people working in Democratic politics in DC and she was being denied access to them because she was the VP.

[Anonymous]

I don’t see how anyone can think Harris is going to win. She’s losing Jews, Muslims, blacks, and Hispanics which in total is like 70% of the Democrat base.

Yikes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

It's a basic need. I'm sure your causes are less important than food.

My “cause” is bodily autonomy and not being used a birthing vessel.

Stay in your basement. Get a hysterectomy.

Problem solved.

DP but she can’t get a hysterectomy if all the GYNs have fled her state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see how anyone can think Harris is going to win. She’s losing Jews, Muslims, blacks, and Hispanics which in total is like 70% of the Democrat base.

Yikes

Don’t forget Catholics and men.

[Anonymous]

I think her loss is going to be worse than Hillary’s. I think essentially the entire Midwest will be red including either Illinois or Minnesota.

I think NH, Maine, NJ, or Virginia will flip red on the East Coast or all of the above

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economist here. Not a political scientist but if I were a gambling gal and had to put my money down, you can rarely go wrong with, "It's the economy, stupid." as a predictor. So I'd have to put my money on Trump as the winner.

The price of groceries is killing a lot of lower and middle-income families. The latest data on FHA loan delinquency and credit card delinquency is actually quite scary. I make good money and am thankful for that, so I can absorb it, but my blood pressure still rises when I have to pay $7 for a three pack of cucumbers. Chuck roast has gone from mid $4/lb to $6.95 at Costco.

I can't even imagine how frightening the grocery bills are for some young couples just starting in their careers. I remember the early days of married life and entry-level salaries and there were stressful days and sleepless nights. I don't regret it. It's a rite of passage to struggle and save when young and build a nest egg for your golden years, but that was in the boom years of the 90s. Thinking about going through that with grocery prices now literally makes me feel sick.

My analysis of whether Biden/Harris are to blame for the inflation is mostly "yes". She cast the deciding vote on a lot of spending, and that's inflationary for sure.

Trump will inherit an economy of delinquent bills and will be falsely blamed for a coming recession. However, if he exacerbates the situation with tariffs - that's his own stupid fault.

I’m so F’ing SICK AND TIRED of hearing people complaining about the price of groceries. That sh!t is so played out it’s pathetic.

And really, why are we placing so much power in the hands of low income earners who clearly haven’t achieved much in life and are now complaining that hamburger helper is too expensive? Gee, I dunno, maybe you should’ve applied yourself a bit more in school and made something of yourself so the price of groceries aren’t a backbreaker for you? So now you’re going to vote for trump because groceries are expensive and then we get Project 2025 and Handmaid’s Tale and probably world war 3 and irreversible climate change and Jews and LGBTQIA people all getting shipped off to death camps…. because poors voted for trump because groceries cost more.

FML….. this is such bullsh!t.

It's a basic need. I'm sure your causes are less important than food.

My “cause” is bodily autonomy and not being used a birthing vessel.

Stay in your basement. Get a hysterectomy.

Problem solved.

DP but she can’t get a hysterectomy if all the GYNs have fled her state.

Name one state where there are zero GYNs.

So stupid.