High Winds and Possible Tornados Monday March 16th Afternoon-Evening
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Anonymous
Definitely experiencing that currently in Rockville. |
Anonymous
Oh stop. It could have been worse. Be glad you are safe and skeptical. |
Anonymous
| Very windy here in Hyattsville. Lights have flickered a couple of times. |
Anonymous
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Interesting - they currently have a tornado warning in Calvert County, MD. |
Anonymous
They have successfully predicted 13 of the last 4 storms we have had. Click bait hypemasters. I look forward to tomorrow’s rationalization for why they botched it so bad. Put together your own bingo card: tricky, challenging, fuel, best we could, appropriate caveats… |
Anonymous
Meteorology is a very challenging discipline, and the reality is that a generation ago we would just have taken the weather as it came, with very little warning expected. These days, people expect accurate predictions, and the science just isn't there yet. That's just how it is, PP. You can rant and rave all you want, but meteorologists make the best predictions based on the most up-to-date models they have, and governments and schools use those to make decisions far in advance of actual events - they have to - which increases the probability of errors. You're welcome to take courses in meteorology and do a better job if you think you're so much smarter than everyone else. |
Anonymous
| Tree down on canal rd. |
Anonymous
DP. Meteorology is just Navier-Stokes on steroids. They don't need to push the most dire of the predictions every damn time. The predictions for this event were well to the west. Why did we have breaking coverage? Don't they have weather coverage in western Virginia? Why is the government dismissing employees and demanding they leave right before the "storm" is predicted to hit the area? Are the best and brightest at work here? |
Anonymous
Your statement contradicts itself: if the science “just isn’t there yet,” it’s not rational to use it for decision making in the manner that it seems to be. Emergency preparedness has costs, and the large number of false positives shows that our decision makers are fundamentally miscalibrated. Whatever the model outputs are, there needs to be more skepticism: hmm, tornadoes in D.C. in March? That doesn’t seem real likely. But that would involve an actual human exercising actual judgment for which that person could in theory be held accountable if they were wrong. Can’t have that. So, let’s just go with whatever the model spits out, and we will rule out of bounds any question such as: “we’ve now got a well established history of models over predicting severe weather events in a part of the world that is not particularly known for them; maybe we need to be a little bit more cautious about disruptive interventions next time.” It’s one thing when you are dealing with snow where the risks are much more asymmetric, where if you get it wrong people are driving in dangerous conditions or trapped in cold conditions. 60-degrees-and-potentially-windy-with-a-modeled-risk-of-a-tornado…..somewhere; better cancel school? Hmm, that’s pathological risk aversion it seems to me. I actually don’t even blame the decision makers anymore, they seem trapped in a structure of perverse incentives more than anything else. |
Anonymous
Allll of this. The value add of local meteorologists is that they are supposed to not just narrate whatever the model spits out, but understand the history of this area and apply that specialized knowledge. Their forecasts are literally responsible for millions of dollars in lost productivity and revenue when institutions close, never mind the inconvenience and expense of actually preparing. Given all that, when was the last time a meteorologist was fired for getting a multimillion dollar forecast wrong? If the answer is “Never” what does that tell you? If the longer answer is meteorologists are only fired for being boring and failing to farm engagement, then you are much closer to understanding the actual incentives of the weather forecasting market than any model that relies on notions of accuracy or accountability. |
Anonymous
OP of this thread. You do not understand how meteorology works. At all. Different people are different roles in the weather predictions that reach the public. First, there are the scientists with PhDs who build the models, and second there are other scientists with PhDs who apply their experience and knowledge to interpreting the results and write up highly technical predictions and explanations (sometimes scientists can do both) - not for the public, not for the general media, but for other weather specialists, who may not have PhDs, who work in prediction offices of governments and large media companies. Those people send out their views, written in a style that non-scientists can understand, which schools and local governments try to make sense of in order to make decisions in the public interest. The weather presenters on TV usually have very little expertise - they are there to look sharp and speak well. We are ignoring here the influencers on social media who are clickbaiters. Sometimes weather personalities on TV end up in that category. DO NOT EVER THREATEN A RESEARCH SCIENTIST WITH BEING FIRED FOR DOING THEIR JOB. It's like if you didn't like what a cancer researcher had to say about a possible treatment for a specific type of cancer. Their job is not to please you. Their job is to do the research in an objective way. They don't ever talk to the public. They are entirely objective scientists who deal with facts and numbers. They are not responsible for how their research is used or abused by other people! You are confusing public-facing weather predictors, with the actual scientists. That shows you know nothing about how it works. Personally, my opinion is that neither you nor I want to be the decision-maker in a school-closure or government-closure situation! It's a lose-lose situation! There is always an element of uncertainty, because usually decisions need to come out the day before, when even experts aren't entirely sure what's going to happen. If you make the right decision (and chance has a role in that), no one will compliment you - everyone will just go on with their day. If it turns out that predictions are completely wrong, everyone excoriates you! I am very tolerant of wrong decisions made by school superintendents and local government officials, because since I know how complex weather predictions can become, I understand that many times, they are all flying blind. I am SO GLAD I am not in their shoes! Shame on you. It's very important to |
Anonymous
+1 The ridiculousness of this all was totally insane, as were the 40+ posters (which I really think are just few mentally ill/anxiety ridden folks here). Lesson learned here? Don't ever listen to these people ever again. |
Anonymous
But will you fall for it again? In any realm is the real question? |
Anonymous
You're hysterical. Found the hysterical weather poster! |
Anonymous
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