Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No. We’re in what is known as a highly volatile sideways market. The winners are the ones frequently trading between selling bloated stocks and buying undervalued gems. The losers are the mindless people dollar cost averaging retirement contributions into the market and inadvertently fueling a wealth redistribution.

We’re in the middle of a repeat of March 1998 - March 2013. Just replace the dot com bust with the COVID crash. We’re in this phase until about June 2027.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

Wow,thanks for that, I was going to stay in the market through August 2027, but now I know to get out a few months before. Glad to have such detailed info here. Do you have a specific date though? Maybe which half of June 2027?

You have already missed the most recent localized maximum, which occurred on March 28, 2024. You should have gotten out then and should stay out until December 2, 2024. The S&P 500 will drop to approximately 4000 by that date and will make another turnaround.

Is this enough precision for you?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No. We’re in what is known as a highly volatile sideways market. The winners are the ones frequently trading between selling bloated stocks and buying undervalued gems. The losers are the mindless people dollar cost averaging retirement contributions into the market and inadvertently fueling a wealth redistribution.

We’re in the middle of a repeat of March 1998 - March 2013. Just replace the dot com bust with the COVID crash. We’re in this phase until about June 2027.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

Wow,thanks for that, I was going to stay in the market through August 2027, but now I know to get out a few months before. Glad to have such detailed info here. Do you have a specific date though? Maybe which half of June 2027?

You have already missed the most recent localized maximum, which occurred on March 28, 2024. You should have gotten out then and should stay out until December 2, 2024. The S&P 500 will drop to approximately 4000 by that date and will make another turnaround.

Is this enough precision for you?

Wow thanks. Will sell everything tomorrow. Then hold tight until early December.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No. We’re in what is known as a highly volatile sideways market. The winners are the ones frequently trading between selling bloated stocks and buying undervalued gems. The losers are the mindless people dollar cost averaging retirement contributions into the market and inadvertently fueling a wealth redistribution.

We’re in the middle of a repeat of March 1998 - March 2013. Just replace the dot com bust with the COVID crash. We’re in this phase until about June 2027.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

We are not in a sideways market. We are in a strong growth market at this point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m a business owner. Of housing/RE related services. And it’s never been this bad.

Felt the murmuring Fall of 2022 but there was still some gas in the tank. Then noticed some serious “consumer apprehension/customer pull back” during the spring of 23 at rates and costs we had been accustomed to confirming and booking since Summer 2021.

By October 2023 our slowdown was real and it was coinciding with the LOWEST period of mortgage apps/housing contracts since 2001. I guess I knew we were exposed to RE all down but those lessons are for the textbook nerds.

I had closed my line of credit so I literally sold anything I could to make it through the winter this year. Bookings and service work are up so far from the last 6mo BUT barely on pace with Spring 2023.

Point is - for those businesses tied exclusively to real estate transactions and other housing related turnover there is a significant loss of momentum. That means fewer large equipment/vehicle purchases and fewer raises and fewer office staff needed to complete the work. So for us - and it might only be us - we are in a recession.

You are not. You have issues. Most of the economy does not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m a business owner. Of housing/RE related services. And it’s never been this bad.

Felt the murmuring Fall of 2022 but there was still some gas in the tank. Then noticed some serious “consumer apprehension/customer pull back” during the spring of 23 at rates and costs we had been accustomed to confirming and booking since Summer 2021.

By October 2023 our slowdown was real and it was coinciding with the LOWEST period of mortgage apps/housing contracts since 2001. I guess I knew we were exposed to RE all down but those lessons are for the textbook nerds.

I had closed my line of credit so I literally sold anything I could to make it through the winter this year. Bookings and service work are up so far from the last 6mo BUT barely on pace with Spring 2023.

Point is - for those businesses tied exclusively to real estate transactions and other housing related turnover there is a significant loss of momentum. That means fewer large equipment/vehicle purchases and fewer raises and fewer office staff needed to complete the work. So for us - and it might only be us - we are in a recession.

You are not. You have issues. Most of the economy does not.

DP: Real estate is having serious issues with both the commercial office side not renewing leases due to remote work and homeowner side with people not moving due to rise in interest rates. But this really doesn't seem to be impacting the overall economy because remote work is saving companies and workers money on average and not moving is giving people who would scale up more money to spend on remodeling or other purchases. I have never seen so much large scale remodeling in my neighborhood and so few for sale signs. People are adding major additions rather than move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m a business owner. Of housing/RE related services. And it’s never been this bad.

Felt the murmuring Fall of 2022 but there was still some gas in the tank. Then noticed some serious “consumer apprehension/customer pull back” during the spring of 23 at rates and costs we had been accustomed to confirming and booking since Summer 2021.

By October 2023 our slowdown was real and it was coinciding with the LOWEST period of mortgage apps/housing contracts since 2001. I guess I knew we were exposed to RE all down but those lessons are for the textbook nerds.

I had closed my line of credit so I literally sold anything I could to make it through the winter this year. Bookings and service work are up so far from the last 6mo BUT barely on pace with Spring 2023.

Point is - for those businesses tied exclusively to real estate transactions and other housing related turnover there is a significant loss of momentum. That means fewer large equipment/vehicle purchases and fewer raises and fewer office staff needed to complete the work. So for us - and it might only be us - we are in a recession.

You are not. You have issues. Most of the economy does not.

DP: Real estate is having serious issues with both the commercial office side not renewing leases due to remote work and homeowner side with people not moving due to rise in interest rates. But this really doesn't seem to be impacting the overall economy because remote work is saving companies and workers money on average and not moving is giving people who would scale up more money to spend on remodeling or other purchases. I have never seen so much large scale remodeling in my neighborhood and so few for sale signs. People are adding major additions rather than move.

Anecdotal but just ran into my slate roofer while walking my dog. He's working on another house in the neighborhood and I reminded him he hadn't started the repairs we'd agreed to on my roof. He stared blankly at me and said he completely forgot. Been slammed and it's never been so busy in his 30 years of roofing.

People definitely staying put and renovating rather than moving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m a business owner. Of housing/RE related services. And it’s never been this bad.

Felt the murmuring Fall of 2022 but there was still some gas in the tank. Then noticed some serious “consumer apprehension/customer pull back” during the spring of 23 at rates and costs we had been accustomed to confirming and booking since Summer 2021.

By October 2023 our slowdown was real and it was coinciding with the LOWEST period of mortgage apps/housing contracts since 2001. I guess I knew we were exposed to RE all down but those lessons are for the textbook nerds.

I had closed my line of credit so I literally sold anything I could to make it through the winter this year. Bookings and service work are up so far from the last 6mo BUT barely on pace with Spring 2023.

Point is - for those businesses tied exclusively to real estate transactions and other housing related turnover there is a significant loss of momentum. That means fewer large equipment/vehicle purchases and fewer raises and fewer office staff needed to complete the work. So for us - and it might only be us - we are in a recession.

You are not. You have issues. Most of the economy does not.

DP: Real estate is having serious issues with both the commercial office side not renewing leases due to remote work and homeowner side with people not moving due to rise in interest rates. But this really doesn't seem to be impacting the overall economy because remote work is saving companies and workers money on average and not moving is giving people who would scale up more money to spend on remodeling or other purchases. I have never seen so much large scale remodeling in my neighborhood and so few for sale signs. People are adding major additions rather than move.

Yes. This is a sign that the economy is actually on fire. Not going down. This is in every neighborhood rich, UMC, middle class, and working poor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I noticed the ski resorts in Summit County were relatively empty this season and it gave me pause. We've been there every year for 15 years and I've seen it like that only a few times.

I also have personally made an effort to spend less on stuff I don't need. Like a Starbucks trip with my daughter now costs $20 when it used to cost $12. Going for a casual dinner is always over $100 when it used to be $70. Yeah, just makes me not want to do those things anymore.

+1

[Anonymous]

I feel like the economy is great! I am a mere fed with a low salary but high job security, and I have personally have almost tripled my net worth since 2020.