Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

Skiing is not a great anecdote. A lot of the skii hills on the mid-Atlantic are owned by Vale so skiers get a yearly pass and just go and pack the Vale owned resorts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We have learned of many layoffs amongst friends/former colleagues as well - all surprising given their level. Though, all in tech…all combined,” it’s giving me pause” is a good description.

Tech routinely lays off senior high paid people and hires more senior slightly less paid people for a few years only to lay off again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

Unemployment is only one metric among many, and is easily manipulated. The CPI is also periodically reformulated to stay within a range perceived acceptable by the public. This is not Alex Jones stuff. This is basic, non-partisan knowledge of U.S. Econ policy.

Real purchasing power of the average citizen is declining. That is what previous posters are reporting. And although anecdotes are not peer-reviewed studies, they are literally a kind of data and have some meaning, even if the sample size is one or two. Anecdotes and data are not mutually exclusive categories.

There wasn’t an accurate statement in your post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

Flat out wrong. Wage growth *HAS NOT OUTPACED INFLATION* for most people unless you only cherrypick a 12 month period within the last year.

Most people's buying power is *less* today than in 2019. That should give you pause.

Well, I think if you picked a 12 month period in the last year, you wouldn’t be cherry picking at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Skiing is not a great anecdote. A lot of the skii hills on the mid-Atlantic are owned by Vale so skiers get a yearly pass and just go and pack the Vale owned resorts.

Perhaps. But that is only one type of anecdote among several here. And we should expect that effects of pullback would be perceived by the public before quarterly reporting would indicate it. Otherwise we have an absurd Catch 22 where you can't think there is a recession until it's been reported, but you can't report a recession until it's in the past.

[Anonymous]

Sometimes this board attracts people with actual expertise and knowledge of economics and finance and then other times it’s a collection of these ridiculous uninformed posts about “feeling” like something is “off” in the economy which means we must be in a recession. I shudder to think any of you have real professional jobs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

Unemployment is only one metric among many, and is easily manipulated. The CPI is also periodically reformulated to stay within a range perceived acceptable by the public. This is not Alex Jones stuff. This is basic, non-partisan knowledge of U.S. Econ policy.

Real purchasing power of the average citizen is declining. That is what previous posters are reporting. And although anecdotes are not peer-reviewed studies, they are literally a kind of data and have some meaning, even if the sample size is one or two. Anecdotes and data are not mutually exclusive categories.

The question: is a recession starting.

The answer: no. economic inequality and other structural issues with our economy and corporate incentives is not a recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

Unemployment is only one metric among many, and is easily manipulated. The CPI is also periodically reformulated to stay within a range perceived acceptable by the public. This is not Alex Jones stuff. This is basic, non-partisan knowledge of U.S. Econ policy.

Real purchasing power of the average citizen is declining. That is what previous posters are reporting. And although anecdotes are not peer-reviewed studies, they are literally a kind of data and have some meaning, even if the sample size is one or two. Anecdotes and data are not mutually exclusive categories.

There wasn’t an accurate statement in your post.

How about this one: "The Biden economy is booming. Things have never been better and are only looking up!" I have a feeling that would be more down to your level.

[Anonymous]

Anecdotes and numbers do line up in one area: Vail, which lowered expectations below already lowered expectations. Fewer people this year in fact. Those who did visit paid heavily for lift tickets and didn't skimp on ski school for their kids. However, they didn't spend as much dining and spending on retail/rentals dropped 10%. I'll say that by the time I arrived for spring break, retailers were offering an unprecedented 50% sale on winter items. So, in fact, things were a bit different.

"Skier visits fell below both prior years and the company’s expectations based on both volume and frequency. “We expect a portion of the lower visitation is related to the challenging conditions in the first half of the season as well as a shift in visitation patterns,” said Lynch, noting that even when conditions improved, visitation did not improve as quickly as expected.

Season-to-date revenue as of March 3 was stronger than skier visits in several categories with total lift revenue up 2.6 percent and ski school revenue up 5.5 percent, while dining revenue dipped just 0.5 percent. Rental and retail revenue, on the other hand, was down a significant 9.3 percent."

[Anonymous]

This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

It’s not about how they feel about the economy.. it’s about how they feel about what other people might be feeling about the economy. It’s absurd. People are determined to find reasons to rationalize that the economy is garbage even though all numbers indicate the opposite.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

Flat out wrong. Wage growth *HAS NOT OUTPACED INFLATION* for most people unless you only cherrypick a 12 month period within the last year.

Most people's buying power is *less* today than in 2019. That should give you pause.

This. We purchased our home in 2020 and there’s no way our income in 2024 would be able to afford the same home in todays market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Restaurant prices have generally gone to the tipping point it’s no longer worth eating out. We only go to a handful of restaurants and stopped going to several as they raised their prices and made portions smaller.

Yes I have cut back on takeout and keep some backup easy to heat stuff like ravioli and raos sauce etc on hand for busy weeknights. Also stopped regularly buying lunch out from neighborhood restaurants while wfh when sandwiches or salads woth protein started to cost $20 or more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Skiing is not a great anecdote. A lot of the skii hills on the mid-Atlantic are owned by Vale so skiers get a yearly pass and just go and pack the Vale owned resorts.

Perhaps. But that is only one type of anecdote among several here. And we should expect that effects of pullback would be perceived by the public before quarterly reporting would indicate it. Otherwise we have an absurd Catch 22 where you can't think there is a recession until it's been reported, but you can't report a recession until it's in the past.

I think this IS how it works!

One of the early PPs had a good point - what would declining demand due to inflation, that would help tame inflation, look like? How's that different from recession?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Restaurant prices have generally gone to the tipping point it’s no longer worth eating out. We only go to a handful of restaurants and stopped going to several as they raised their prices and made portions smaller.

j
Same here. It’s just not worth it.

My family of four went to sushi on Sunday night and it was $199.41. That is now a special occasion meal.