Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Agree with ski resort poster. We were also there and I had the same reaction - pretty shocked. I thought with all the rich getting richer it would be packed, but no. Our landscaper folded after many years of struggling to find enough help. A weekly food delivery place was delayed a day as they were dealing with staffing shortages.

OP it feels to me like things are off, too. Not just feels - based on my own life experiences

Wow 3 whole anecdotes! Two of them which apparently confirm that workers are still in heavy demand.

[Anonymous]

The OP’s question was about things feeling off (not about stats we’ve compiled). So yes, along with local restaurant owners telling me business is oddly slow (for this time of year) what I’m experiencing is decidedly “off”

[Anonymous]

We have learned of many layoffs amongst friends/former colleagues as well - all surprising given their level. Though, all in tech…all combined,” it’s giving me pause” is a good description.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree with ski resort poster. We were also there and I had the same reaction - pretty shocked. I thought with all the rich getting richer it would be packed, but no. Our landscaper folded after many years of struggling to find enough help. A weekly food delivery place was delayed a day as they were dealing with staffing shortages.

OP it feels to me like things are off, too. Not just feels - based on my own life experiences

Wow 3 whole anecdotes! Two of them which apparently confirm that workers are still in heavy demand.

+1. Crazy that these posters think the tight labor market is somehow a sign of recession.

We were in CO for spring break the last two years, and it was much busier this year than last. So I've got my own counter-anecdote!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

Flat out wrong. Wage growth *HAS NOT OUTPACED INFLATION* for most people unless you only cherrypick a 12 month period within the last year.

Most people's buying power is *less* today than in 2019. That should give you pause.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

Flat out wrong. Wage growth *HAS NOT OUTPACED INFLATION* for most people unless you only cherrypick a 12 month period within the last year.

Most people's buying power is *less* today than in 2019. That should give you pause.

Americans' purchasing power has been on a steady decline.....for the last 70 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The OP’s question was about things feeling off (not about stats we’ve compiled). So yes, along with local restaurant owners telling me business is oddly slow (for this time of year) what I’m experiencing is decidedly “off”

Well local business has been thriving here so yay anecdotes. There is plenty of public data to form your own opinion, but i'm sure DCUM is smarter than everyone else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

Flat out wrong. Wage growth *HAS NOT OUTPACED INFLATION* for most people unless you only cherrypick a 12 month period within the last year.

Most people's buying power is *less* today than in 2019. That should give you pause.

Americans' purchasing power has been on a steady decline.....for the last 70 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R

NP and I don't understand the chart can you explain it? Let's say we select the last ten years. Is it saying that $1 ten years ago was a 42.5 on the index and it's Iike low 30s today? If so, what does the index stand for/represent?

[Anonymous]

Restaurant prices have generally gone to the tipping point it’s no longer worth eating out. We only go to a handful of restaurants and stopped going to several as they raised their prices and made portions smaller.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

It are being laid off again.

[Anonymous]

It ain't a recession until I lose my job.

Just like it ain't a drought until the water stops coming out of the tap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Restaurant prices have generally gone to the tipping point it’s no longer worth eating out. We only go to a handful of restaurants and stopped going to several as they raised their prices and made portions smaller.

I agree that we are extremely selective about where we eat out now. It’s basically now just fast casual or special occasion restaurants. Almost no midrange sit down dining for us any more - it’s way too expensive. My husband and I had a “date lunch” recently and 1 app, 2 entrees and 2 cocktails was $100 before tip.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Restaurant prices have generally gone to the tipping point it’s no longer worth eating out. We only go to a handful of restaurants and stopped going to several as they raised their prices and made portions smaller.

j
Same here. It’s just not worth it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.

Stop fear mongering.

There are a ton of IT openings.

There are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is very low.

Don't worry your fears will come true when Repukes take over again. And the National Debt will rise again.

Unemployment is only one metric among many, and is easily manipulated. The CPI is also periodically reformulated to stay within a range perceived acceptable by the public. This is not Alex Jones stuff. This is basic, non-partisan knowledge of U.S. Econ policy.

Real purchasing power of the average citizen is declining. That is what previous posters are reporting. And although anecdotes are not peer-reviewed studies, they are literally a kind of data and have some meaning, even if the sample size is one or two. Anecdotes and data are not mutually exclusive categories.