Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

It’s not about how they feel about the economy.. it’s about how they feel about what other people might be feeling about the economy. It’s absurd. People are determined to find reasons to rationalize that the economy is garbage even though all numbers indicate the opposite.

The same principal applies to you, too.

I don't see why some people are so resistant to criticism of the current economy. I make a good salary and have benefited from increases in stock and real estate values, but it doesn't prevent me from recognizing my buying power has also dipped and inflation has bit me stronger than I'd like. I received a 2.5% salary increase this year while inflation is higher than that. And the same happened last year. And I work for a F200 firm.

It is very possible to have a robust economy and declining buying powers at the same time. Which is what we are witnessing at the moment. Shrieking at people that they fail to understand how great they have it is tone deaf and misses the point entirely.

[Anonymous]

I have definitely noticed my favorite restaurants have lowered the portion sizes and the quality of ingredients. We prefer takeout for a favorite dish and then combine with food at home and our own wine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

It’s not about how they feel about the economy.. it’s about how they feel about what other people might be feeling about the economy. It’s absurd. People are determined to find reasons to rationalize that the economy is garbage even though all numbers indicate the opposite.

The same principal applies to you, too.

I don't see why some people are so resistant to criticism of the current economy. I make a good salary and have benefited from increases in stock and real estate values, but it doesn't prevent me from recognizing my buying power has also dipped and inflation has bit me stronger than I'd like. I received a 2.5% salary increase this year while inflation is higher than that. And the same happened last year. And I work for a F200 firm.

It is very possible to have a robust economy and declining buying powers at the same time. Which is what we are witnessing at the moment. Shrieking at people that they fail to understand how great they have it is tone deaf and misses the point entirely.

DP: Kinda dramatic--they seemed to just state their case like you are stating yours. Anyway, I think the material point though is that data suggest wage increases on average *have* outpaced inflation. But this is experienced variably--a renter who needs to purchase a high ticket item feels the pinch more than someone who doesn't, people who eat out regularly who are experiencing increases in formerly low-wage labor costs and food costs feel it more than people who don't. So anyone who wants to reasonably rail against the big picture economy needs to not just think about their individual situation but look at wider data.

[Anonymous]

I follow a budgeting person on IG and use her spreadsheet set up and she has discussed that normally there is a bump this time of year but they have continued to see a plateau or even decrease in services purchased. She has comments from other business owners who state the same thing. That service-based requests are declining or plateauing when normally this time of year would see an increase.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

It’s not about how they feel about the economy.. it’s about how they feel about what other people might be feeling about the economy. It’s absurd. People are determined to find reasons to rationalize that the economy is garbage even though all numbers indicate the opposite.

The same principal applies to you, too.

I don't see why some people are so resistant to criticism of the current economy. I make a good salary and have benefited from increases in stock and real estate values, but it doesn't prevent me from recognizing my buying power has also dipped and inflation has bit me stronger than I'd like. I received a 2.5% salary increase this year while inflation is higher than that. And the same happened last year. And I work for a F200 firm.

It is very possible to have a robust economy and declining buying powers at the same time. Which is what we are witnessing at the moment. Shrieking at people that they fail to understand how great they have it is tone deaf and misses the point entirely.

DP: Kinda dramatic--they seemed to just state their case like you are stating yours. Anyway, I think the material point though is that data suggest wage increases on average *have* outpaced inflation. But this is experienced variably--a renter who needs to purchase a high ticket item feels the pinch more than someone who doesn't, people who eat out regularly who are experiencing increases in formerly low-wage labor costs and food costs feel it more than people who don't. So anyone who wants to reasonably rail against the big picture economy needs to not just think about their individual situation but look at wider data.

Wage gains have not outpaced inflation stretching back to 2024 for the typical worker and household, who are statistically poorer than they were in 2024. No shortage of google armchair research for you to do.

It's also why the Biden administration keeps getting low scores for economic performance and why more people say they were better off under Trump. Like it or not, his administration saw real wage growth in that wage gains outpaced inflation.

In the last few years people generally only saw real salary increases by job hopping. But those who stayed put have not kept up with inflation, and that is a big part of the distortion of the economic picture.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

No, OP asked a specific question to which the factual answer is “no.” Words have meanings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

No, OP asked a specific question to which the factual answer is “no.” Words have meanings.

The title was a specific question (that was misinterpreted as merely technical by you), but the Original Post itself asked how people were feeling. The OP also pointed out things he was personally noticing, which set the tone for the thread. You came her to shtpost after remembering the technical definition of a recession from your ECON101 class. So I am here to say "Gold star, well done little Johnnie, yes there is a very specific technical meaning to the word recession." We get it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

No, OP asked a specific question to which the factual answer is “no.” Words have meanings.

The title was a specific question (that was misinterpreted as merely technical by you), but the Original Post itself asked how people were feeling. The OP also pointed out things he was personally noticing, which set the tone for the thread. You came her to shtpost after remembering the technical definition of a recession from your ECON101 class. So I am here to say "Gold star, well done little Johnnie, yes there is a very specific technical meaning to the word recession." We get it.

Sorry to interrupt your vibes discussion with facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread is specifically about how people are feeling about the economy. I find it interesting.

Those so desperately posting against that, start your own thread about our awesome economy.

No, OP asked a specific question to which the factual answer is “no.” Words have meanings.

The title was a specific question (that was misinterpreted as merely technical by you), but the Original Post itself asked how people were feeling. The OP also pointed out things he was personally noticing, which set the tone for the thread. You came her to shtpost after remembering the technical definition of a recession from your ECON101 class. So I am here to say "Gold star, well done little Johnnie, yes there is a very specific technical meaning to the word recession." We get it.

Sorry to interrupt your vibes discussion with facts.

Not mine--the OP specifically asked for "feeling".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Biden economy = no money, inflation, everything is too expensive, pan handlers on every street corner.

Trump economy= stock market raging, investments doing excellent, normal prices, gas $2.15 a gallon.

These are just facts. Love or hate one or both of them I don't Give a f but this is how it is. Vote with your money and your feet. That's all folks.

Literally, the stock market has been raging over the last 4 years and investments are doing excellent. S&P on 1/1/2020 = 3328 and S&P today = 5,062.

That is another fact...so do you love it? I guess I will also vote with my money (of which I now have a lot more than on 1/1/2020).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden economy = no money, inflation, everything is too expensive, pan handlers on every street corner.

Trump economy= stock market raging, investments doing excellent, normal prices, gas $2.15 a gallon.

These are just facts. Love or hate one or both of them I don't Give a f but this is how it is. Vote with your money and your feet. That's all folks.

Your bank accounts never lies but politicians do.

[Anonymous]

The S&P certainly has some meaning for how well off the average person is. It has very little meaning for how well off the median American is, though, since the average is skewed so far from the median by inequality. But I'll play your game. It doesn't go the way you think. You can use this simple calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

S&P annualized return under Trump 1/2017 to 1/2021: 13.6%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 11.5%

S&P annualized return under Biden 1/2021 to present: 10.7%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 4.8%

Bank and investment accounts do lie if you don't take inflation into account. Even in the raw (before inflation adjustment), the S&P did better under Trump.

You suck at understanding your own game.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The S&P certainly has some meaning for how well off the average person is. It has very little meaning for how well off the median American is, though, since the average is skewed so far from the median by inequality. But I'll play your game. It doesn't go the way you think. You can use this simple calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

S&P annualized return under Trump 1/2017 to 1/2021: 13.6%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 11.5%

S&P annualized return under Biden 1/2021 to present: 10.7%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 4.8%

Bank and investment accounts do lie if you don't take inflation into account. Even in the raw (before inflation adjustment), the S&P did better under Trump.

You suck at understanding your own game.

So my takeaway from your analysis is that I have made money no matter what over the last 8 years. So I am happy, no matter what.

Did you factor in return on cash during those time periods in the overall analysis? It was zero from 1/2017 - 1/2021 while it will average likely around 3.5% from 1/2021 - present and keep increasing through November at 5.2% in short-term MM funds. What does that do to your return calculations?

That's a far cry from I am rich under Trump and poor under Biden...more like I am rich and kept getting richer albeit at a lower annual rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The S&P certainly has some meaning for how well off the average person is. It has very little meaning for how well off the median American is, though, since the average is skewed so far from the median by inequality. But I'll play your game. It doesn't go the way you think. You can use this simple calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

S&P annualized return under Trump 1/2017 to 1/2021: 13.6%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 11.5%

S&P annualized return under Biden 1/2021 to present: 10.7%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 4.8%

Bank and investment accounts do lie if you don't take inflation into account. Even in the raw (before inflation adjustment), the S&P did better under Trump.

You suck at understanding your own game.

So my takeaway from your analysis is that I have made money no matter what over the last 8 years. So I am happy, no matter what.

Did you factor in return on cash during those time periods in the overall analysis? It was zero from 1/2017 - 1/2021 while it will average likely around 3.5% from 1/2021 - present and keep increasing through November at 5.2% in short-term MM funds. What does that do to your return calculations?

That's a far cry from I am rich under Trump and poor under Biden...more like I am rich and kept getting richer albeit at a lower annual rate.

Oh man. Truly idiotic. "Return on cash" is always going to be more or less zero after taking inflation into account. If you think you are getting a good return on cash now but were getting a bad return on cash 4 years ago...then you truly do not understand inflation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The S&P certainly has some meaning for how well off the average person is. It has very little meaning for how well off the median American is, though, since the average is skewed so far from the median by inequality. But I'll play your game. It doesn't go the way you think. You can use this simple calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

S&P annualized return under Trump 1/2017 to 1/2021: 13.6%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 11.5%

S&P annualized return under Biden 1/2021 to present: 10.7%. CPI inflation-adjusted: 4.8%

Bank and investment accounts do lie if you don't take inflation into account. Even in the raw (before inflation adjustment), the S&P did better under Trump.

You suck at understanding your own game.

So my takeaway from your analysis is that I have made money no matter what over the last 8 years. So I am happy, no matter what.

Did you factor in return on cash during those time periods in the overall analysis? It was zero from 1/2017 - 1/2021 while it will average likely around 3.5% from 1/2021 - present and keep increasing through November at 5.2% in short-term MM funds. What does that do to your return calculations?

That's a far cry from I am rich under Trump and poor under Biden...more like I am rich and kept getting richer albeit at a lower annual rate.

Oh man. Truly idiotic. "Return on cash" is always going to be more or less zero after taking inflation into account. If you think you are getting a good return on cash now but were getting a bad return on cash 4 years ago...then you truly do not understand inflation.

If cash pays 5.25% and inflation is 3.48%...how is that not better than cash paying 0% and inflation at 1.8% (rate in 2020)?

Obviously, if you are homeowner so therefore your housing costs aren't impacted by rent inflation...that's even a lower personal inflation rate.