Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

If only there was some way to aggregate all of these anecdotes into a more complete and accurate picture, for policy makers to analyze and understand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

If only there was some way to aggregate all of these anecdotes into a more complete and accurate picture, for policy makers to analyze and understand.

Shhhh with your nonsense, it has already been proclaimed that this thread is about “feelings.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

If only there was some way to aggregate all of these anecdotes into a more complete and accurate picture, for policy makers to analyze and understand.

Shhhh with your nonsense, it has already been proclaimed that this thread is about “feelings.”

No but there has to be a way. I swear someone will figure out how to collect this information, someday. Alas, there is nothing we can do today except trade individual stories about friends' job prospects, and what a couple of things cost us today.

Oh wait also how busy a couple of ski slopes were on a couple of days. Forgot that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

If only there was some way to aggregate all of these anecdotes into a more complete and accurate picture, for policy makers to analyze and understand.

Shhhh with your nonsense, it has already been proclaimed that this thread is about “feelings.”

Yes, please don’t tell everyone about economics and economists. We will solve this puzzle by sharing stories about things made us feel bad and uncertain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We do know one person who unexpectedly lost their job a few months ago- company was doing poorly and cut like 1/3 of their staff. Just got a very similar job in less than 2 months. Also know someone who transitioned back into full-time work after being SAHP for 5+ years, got a good job within 3 months of starting to look. Don't know anyone else who has lost a job recently. So I guess there isn't a recession.

We know quite a few people who have been laid off or fired. My spouse was on the chopping block but things seem ok as of now.

If only there was some way to aggregate all of these anecdotes into a more complete and accurate picture, for policy makers to analyze and understand.

Shhhh with your nonsense, it has already been proclaimed that this thread is about “feelings.”

No but there has to be a way. I swear someone will figure out how to collect this information, someday. Alas, there is nothing we can do today except trade individual stories about friends' job prospects, and what a couple of things cost us today.

Oh wait also how busy a couple of ski slopes were on a couple of days. Forgot that.

Don’t forget that we are comparing how we felt on the ski slopes during spring break to how we felt on the ski slopes two years during spring break when the world was coming out of once in a generation pandemic that was likely still curtailing travel…especially travel with children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Baseless doomerism (often fueled by cultural/political resentments) is a huge cottage industry around here.

‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b

Just remember - just becasue things are going poorly for you - doesn't mean the vast majority of other people aren't doing great.

Ha. Love this.

So true. So much faux outrage leading up to an election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No, this is not a recession.

There is always a lot of data cooking to get to these unemployment numbers- look at the share of employed adults ages 18-55 over years to see a more accurate figure.

Churn in the employment market is definitely up but that’s different than true unemployment.

If you are worried about getting laid off, sock away in your emergency fund.

No not a recession. In fact we are in the very early stages of a very strong economy. Fears for a recession were for late 24 but late 25 or early 26 is more likely. For every tech job eliminated there have been 2 open. That could end but tech is not a driver either way. PP said not living wage jobs are all that are open and that is just not true. Lots of great jobs open. More than can be filled. OP not sure you are seeing this right.

[Anonymous]

No. We’re in what is known as a highly volatile sideways market. The winners are the ones frequently trading between selling bloated stocks and buying undervalued gems. The losers are the mindless people dollar cost averaging retirement contributions into the market and inadvertently fueling a wealth redistribution.

We’re in the middle of a repeat of March 1998 - March 2013. Just replace the dot com bust with the COVID crash. We’re in this phase until about June 2027.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Agree with ski resort poster. We were also there and I had the same reaction - pretty shocked. I thought with all the rich getting richer it would be packed, but no. Our landscaper folded after many years of struggling to find enough help. A weekly food delivery place was delayed a day as they were dealing with staffing shortages.

OP it feels to me like things are off, too. Not just feels - based on my own life experiences

I grew up in Crested Butte and was shocked by how few skiers were there at Christmas. The clientele definitely was VERY different than what it has been in years past. There’s a lot going on with the market there and in other resort towns, but my sense is that your average family that vacationed there 10 years ago is just priced out now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No. We’re in what is known as a highly volatile sideways market. The winners are the ones frequently trading between selling bloated stocks and buying undervalued gems. The losers are the mindless people dollar cost averaging retirement contributions into the market and inadvertently fueling a wealth redistribution.

We’re in the middle of a repeat of March 1998 - March 2013. Just replace the dot com bust with the COVID crash. We’re in this phase until about June 2027.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

Wow,thanks for that, I was going to stay in the market through August 2027, but now I know to get out a few months before. Glad to have such detailed info here. Do you have a specific date though? Maybe which half of June 2027?

[Anonymous]

I'm a bit amused by people mocking "feelings" because how people "feel" when it comes to economic issues is a topic within economics. It's pretty clear you aren't an economist or have any idea of what economists do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm a bit amused by people mocking "feelings" because how people "feel" when it comes to economic issues is a topic within economics. It's pretty clear you aren't an economist or have any idea of what economists do.

Yes, and again, that is interesting and important data, when collected properly across a representative sample, as has been happening for the past 75 years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan_Consumer_Sentiment_Index

[Anonymous]

I’m a business owner. Of housing/RE related services. And it’s never been this bad.

Felt the murmuring Fall of 2022 but there was still some gas in the tank. Then noticed some serious “consumer apprehension/customer pull back” during the spring of 23 at rates and costs we had been accustomed to confirming and booking since Summer 2021.

By October 2023 our slowdown was real and it was coinciding with the LOWEST period of mortgage apps/housing contracts since 2001. I guess I knew we were exposed to RE all down but those lessons are for the textbook nerds.

I had closed my line of credit so I literally sold anything I could to make it through the winter this year. Bookings and service work are up so far from the last 6mo BUT barely on pace with Spring 2023.

Point is - for those businesses tied exclusively to real estate transactions and other housing related turnover there is a significant loss of momentum. That means fewer large equipment/vehicle purchases and fewer raises and fewer office staff needed to complete the work. So for us - and it might only be us - we are in a recession.