Has a recession started?

[Anonymous]

In the Barbie-consumption bubble of Loudoun where I live, I don’t see any slowing down. Seriously, never move here. It’s not worth the “cheaper” housing.

[Anonymous]

What recession. We can't find workers for flexible no experience needed $40 an hour work.
This work paid $10-$20 an hour the last 25 years.
I'm a poor who made a lot of money in last four years. I can only imagine how much smarter people with more than minimum wage made during the same time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great! You are NOT seeing the start of a recession. You are seeing the market working--as in people are saying I am not going to pay X for Y good. This is the only way we are going to see inflation go down. Now CEOs will have to lower prices to bring consumers back rather than simply passing profits to shareholders. I have noticed my grocery bill is starting to creep down. So I am glad people are stopping with the crazy spending.

You literally described what a recession is.

No, PP did not describe a recession. PP described what the Fed is trying to do to cool inflation which is very sticky and bolstered by rents in certain markets being very high. The reality is that the rent part is based on demand. Interest rates are not coming down until inflation gets and stays at 2.5%. And high interest rates benefit savers not regular folks. Certainly not someone trying to buy. But do you remember the Great Recession? We are nowhere near that point. The problem is that companies are keeping prices high to increase revenue more than to pay for goods and labor and layoffs for white collar jobs are happening to reduce labor/operations costs and boost revenue for shareholders. It is all about returns and with interest rates high the market is not uniformly up. It is impacting sectors differently. But there is not a recession. It feels bad though and unfortunately we all need to feel bad so we stop spending and drive inflation down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What recession. We can't find workers for flexible no experience needed $40 an hour work.
This work paid $10-$20 an hour the last 25 years.
I'm a poor who made a lot of money in last four years. I can only imagine how much smarter people with more than minimum wage made during the same time.

What jobs are those? care to elaborate or share a link?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

In fact, wage growth has been very strong for low income workers post-covid.

https://www.dallasfed.org/cd/communities/2022/0808

Inequality still a growing problem, but not really related to the current economic pattern- more just a long term thing for the past 50 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No, this is not a recession.

There is always a lot of data cooking to get to these unemployment numbers- look at the share of employed adults ages 18-55 over years to see a more accurate figure.

Churn in the employment market is definitely up but that’s different than true unemployment.

If you are worried about getting laid off, sock away in your emergency fund.

You mean the percentage that has fully recovered and is now the same as it was in 2018?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/192398/employment-rate-in-the-us-since-1990

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What recession. We can't find workers for flexible no experience needed $40 an hour work.
This work paid $10-$20 an hour the last 25 years.
I'm a poor who made a lot of money in last four years. I can only imagine how much smarter people with more than minimum wage made during the same time.

What jobs are those? care to elaborate or share a link?

Yes please LOL

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What recession. We can't find workers for flexible no experience needed $40 an hour work.
This work paid $10-$20 an hour the last 25 years.
I'm a poor who made a lot of money in last four years. I can only imagine how much smarter people with more than minimum wage made during the same time.

What jobs are those? care to elaborate or share a link?

Are you talking about housecleaning or caregiving? $40/hr would be $1600 a week, $83,200 a year. Not seeing those jobs going unfilled.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Wage growth at all levels has outpaced inflation. Unemployment is at record lows.

All of those things can be true at once. Just because the wages from those jobs have increased doesn't mean they all of a sudden become "good" jobs. Someone working at McDonalds may be earning more but its still not a living wage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great! You are NOT seeing the start of a recession. You are seeing the market working--as in people are saying I am not going to pay X for Y good. This is the only way we are going to see inflation go down. Now CEOs will have to lower prices to bring consumers back rather than simply passing profits to shareholders. I have noticed my grocery bill is starting to creep down. So I am glad people are stopping with the crazy spending.

You literally described what a recession is.

Um, no, they didn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In the Barbie-consumption bubble of Loudoun where I live, I don’t see any slowing down. Seriously, never move here. It’s not worth the “cheaper” housing.

This is an excellent description of many parts of Loudoun. So garish and sterile. Yuck.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the Barbie-consumption bubble of Loudoun where I live, I don’t see any slowing down. Seriously, never move here. It’s not worth the “cheaper” housing.

This is an excellent description of many parts of Loudoun. So garish and sterile. Yuck.

What is a Barbie consumption bubble? I’m not familiar with the term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What recession. We can't find workers for flexible no experience needed $40 an hour work.
This work paid $10-$20 an hour the last 25 years.
I'm a poor who made a lot of money in last four years. I can only imagine how much smarter people with more than minimum wage made during the same time.

What jobs are those? care to elaborate or share a link?

Yes please LOL

.

NP, but I’m at my job right now which is independent contractor work that pays $45 an hour and doesn’t require ed beyond high school and don’t have enough people today. We have had trouble with being understaffed since before the pandemic. Things are better now, by quite a bit, but we still have to work on recruiting. Nothing dangerous or difficult about the work at all. In fact it is pretty enjoyable.

[Anonymous]

Agree with ski resort poster. We were also there and I had the same reaction - pretty shocked. I thought with all the rich getting richer it would be packed, but no. Our landscaper folded after many years of struggling to find enough help. A weekly food delivery place was delayed a day as they were dealing with staffing shortages.

OP it feels to me like things are off, too. Not just feels - based on my own life experiences