Does DCPS care? New model shows even with masks, 40% of students will still be infected with Delta

[Anonymous]

Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

[Anonymous]

What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

I am one who would like a virtual option for my under 12 y.o. But the article says that the "research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months." That's critical point.

[Anonymous]

Schools need to be open, Delta or not. I'm angry that they were closed all last year when mitigation efforts could have been more effective, but we simply can't keep kids home another year. And frankly I'm more worried about schools closing than my kids catching Delta. Closing schools is guaranteed to have harmful impacts on them and every other child in the community. Delta has very very low likelihood of having serious side effects, and negligible likelihood of death or life threatening illness. Community vaccination rates are high enough that I'm not worried about our hospital systems getting overwhelmed, and I'm BEYOND OVER caring about the wellbeing of adults that choose not to get vaccinated.

And that's what the article says too. Open schools and layer mitigation efforts:


Swann recently published a report that found that in a worst-case scenario, without masking in schools, an additional 70% of children could be infected with the coronavirus within three months. Her research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months.

However, there are factors that can affect these numbers, Swann said.

For example, when 50% of kids come to school with protection from the virus — either from vaccines (in middle school or high school) or from a prior infection — the model projects up to 25% of the other kids will be infected, if everyone is masked.

In a school that implements both masking and weekly testing — like those in Los Angeles Unified — Swann’s model shows that 20% of students are likely to be infected.

Even with that knowledge, she said, schools should reopen for the 2021-22 academic year, with additional mitigation strategies in place.

“Schools and counties and states can also increase testing of their population and the community, which will also help slow the disease spread,” she said.

[Anonymous]

Exactly. Kids need to be in school. The risk of Delta does not justify furthering the damage caused by remote school. If you don't agree, you have option to homeschool or enroll in a virtual option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

This. Schools need to be open. It's unfortunate timing of course, but to continue to keep schools closed would have detrimental effects on kids who are already way behind because of the closures last year. I don't think COVID will ever go away. We can't keep schools closed forever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

Are you mad at parents or are you mad at DCPS? Or both? It seems like you are casting stones at both.

[Anonymous]

How long do you think people should be scared of a virus that’s basically indistinguishable from any other cold in children? Last year we were protecting the adults. Who are we protecting now and from what? In children, flu and RSV are just as/more dangerous than covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Schools need to be open, Delta or not. I'm angry that they were closed all last year when mitigation efforts could have been more effective, but we simply can't keep kids home another year. And frankly I'm more worried about schools closing than my kids catching Delta. Closing schools is guaranteed to have harmful impacts on them and every other child in the community. Delta has very very low likelihood of having serious side effects, and negligible likelihood of death or life threatening illness. Community vaccination rates are high enough that I'm not worried about our hospital systems getting overwhelmed, and I'm BEYOND OVER caring about the wellbeing of adults that choose not to get vaccinated.

And that's what the article says too. Open schools and layer mitigation efforts:


Swann recently published a report that found that in a worst-case scenario, without masking in schools, an additional 70% of children could be infected with the coronavirus within three months. Her research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months.

However, there are factors that can affect these numbers, Swann said.

For example, when 50% of kids come to school with protection from the virus — either from vaccines (in middle school or high school) or from a prior infection — the model projects up to 25% of the other kids will be infected, if everyone is masked.

In a school that implements both masking and weekly testing — like those in Los Angeles Unified — Swann’s model shows that 20% of students are likely to be infected.

Even with that knowledge, she said, schools should reopen for the 2021-22 academic year, with additional mitigation strategies in place.

“Schools and counties and states can also increase testing of their population and the community, which will also help slow the disease spread,” she said.

that's interesting that weekly testing isn't modeled to do a whole lot about spread.

[Anonymous]

OP, do you have a kid that is too young to be vaccinated? What's your personal stake here?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

Are you mad at parents or are you mad at DCPS? Or both? It seems like you are casting stones at both.

It looks to me like OP is lamenting the silence from DCPS on some necessary mitigation measures, and the statements of parents on this board opposing or even promising to obstruct some necessary mitigation measures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

Are you mad at parents or are you mad at DCPS? Or both? It seems like you are casting stones at both.

It looks to me like OP is lamenting the silence from DCPS on some necessary mitigation measures, and the statements of parents on this board opposing or even promising to obstruct some necessary mitigation measures.

I'm not sure why everyone keeps repeating that there is "silence" from DCPS about mitigation measures. DCPS has a whole range of mitigation it did last year and will continue to do this year.

https://dcpsreopenstrong.com/chancellor/school-health-safety-update/

[Anonymous]

I think we might have a rough time with quarantines in a month, but delta could also peak and fall before then, so who knows.

I'm actually less worried about the littler kids, who can more easily be cohorted and have always been shown to have milder cases of covid (and delta hasn't been shown to be more virulent in children compared to prior strains).

I think there's a good chance my kid will get delta. I think like most other kids that get delta, it'll be like a mild flu. I've known other families with kids that got covid and it was NBD. Their anecdotes are supported by the statistics.

I'll follow the rules, of course, but in-person school is absolutely imperative.

[Anonymous]

Everyone in an age group which has any meaningful risk of serious illness or death can be vaccinated. Kids with medical conditions that mean they are also particularly vulnerable can attend school virtually. The reason to keep kids home from school wasn't to prevent infections in kids, it was to prevent them from killing their grandparents. Now that vaccines are available to their grandparents, it doesn't make any sense to keep kids home from school. We don't shut schools down when there are cases of colds or the flu, and that's what this is for children and vaccinated adults. Because, what exactly is the alternative? Two years+ of no in-person school for many kids (which in practice, means no school at all for many of them?)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

Are you mad at parents or are you mad at DCPS? Or both? It seems like you are casting stones at both.

It looks to me like OP is lamenting the silence from DCPS on some necessary mitigation measures, and the statements of parents on this board opposing or even promising to obstruct some necessary mitigation measures.

I'm not sure why everyone keeps repeating that there is "silence" from DCPS about mitigation measures. DCPS has a whole range of mitigation it did last year and will continue to do this year.

https://dcpsreopenstrong.com/chancellor/school-health-safety-update/

So OP....DCPS is apparently focusing on ventilation, which you maybe didn't know. Seems to be DCPS is taking an approach that makes sense and actually uses what we learned last year.