Reply to Does DCPS care? New model shows even with masks, 40% of students will still be infected with Delta

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Reply to "Does DCPS care? New model shows even with masks, 40% of students will still be infected with Delta "

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Schools need to be open, Delta or not. I'm angry that they were closed all last year when mitigation efforts could have been more effective, but we simply can't keep kids home another year. And frankly I'm more worried about schools closing than my kids catching Delta. Closing schools is guaranteed to have harmful impacts on them and every other child in the community. Delta has very very low likelihood of having serious side effects, and negligible likelihood of death or life threatening illness. Community vaccination rates are high enough that I'm not worried about our hospital systems getting overwhelmed, and I'm BEYOND OVER caring about the wellbeing of adults that choose not to get vaccinated.

And that's what the article says too. Open schools and layer mitigation efforts:

Swann recently published a report that found that in a worst-case scenario, without masking in schools, an additional 70% of children could be infected with the coronavirus within three months. Her research also shows that even if masking is required in all schools, if there are no other mitigation strategies, she still expects 40% of elementary school students to be infected within three months.

However, there are factors that can affect these numbers, Swann said.

For example, when 50% of kids come to school with protection from the virus — either from vaccines (in middle school or high school) or from a prior infection — the model projects up to 25% of the other kids will be infected, if everyone is masked.

In a school that implements both masking and weekly testing — like those in Los Angeles Unified — Swann’s model shows that 20% of students are likely to be infected.

Even with that knowledge, she said, schools should reopen for the 2021-22 academic year, with additional mitigation strategies in place.

“Schools and counties and states can also increase testing of their population and the community, which will also help slow the disease spread,” she said.

[/quote]

that's interesting that weekly testing isn't modeled to do a whole lot about spread.[/quote]

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