Does DCPS care? New model shows even with masks, 40% of students will still be infected with Delta

[Anonymous]

Given how contagious Delta is, I think many of us have resigned ourselves that our kids will probably get it at school despite mitigation measures. It’s a terrifying premise after essentially hiding out from the disease for over a year. But most of what I’m reading says that kids don’t get super sick. We didn’t live in a risk free world before Covid, and despite my anxiety disorder, I’m not going to insist on one now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

Yes. Agree with this 100%. Kids need to be in school.

Signed,
An RN and MD family who will be sending our kids to school and fine if they catch Covid.

Covid is not a health crisis for kids. Being out of school or in virtual school is.

Just chiming in to add that this doctor and scientist family disagrees strongly, mostly because all generalizations are untrue and the solution lies in the details.

If something can be done for school lunches, so that it's outside under a large tent (same for PE, band and choir), then people won't have to take masks off indoors, and all will be well. Schools need to require proof of vaccinations for everyone 12+ and require well-fitting masks, so that transmission is lowered and people who get sick are out for less time. Schools also need to require vaccinations for 5-11 as soon as the vaccines come out for that age group. Child-size KF94s work well for kids.

Same for workplaces. If you can eat lunch outdoors, do it. Bundle up in the winter. Otherwise eat away from everyone else, as much as you can. Require proof of vaccination to come into work. Wear a mask that fits. N95, KN95, or KF94. The N95 with the elastic that goes around the head is the gold standard for fit, comfort and safety. Buy some, rotate through them all week. Leaving a used mask for 3-4 days in a cool, dry place will kill all viruses on it. You won't need more than 25 for the year.

This is how you keep schools and workplaces open.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

Yes. Agree with this 100%. Kids need to be in school.

Signed,
An RN and MD family who will be sending our kids to school and fine if they catch Covid.

Covid is not a health crisis for kids. Being out of school or in virtual school is.

Just chiming in to add that this doctor and scientist family disagrees strongly, mostly because all generalizations are untrue and the solution lies in the details.

If something can be done for school lunches, so that it's outside under a large tent (same for PE, band and choir), then people won't have to take masks off indoors, and all will be well. Schools need to require proof of vaccinations for everyone 12+ and require well-fitting masks, so that transmission is lowered and people who get sick are out for less time. Schools also need to require vaccinations for 5-11 as soon as the vaccines come out for that age group. Child-size KF94s work well for kids.

Same for workplaces. If you can eat lunch outdoors, do it. Bundle up in the winter. Otherwise eat away from everyone else, as much as you can. Require proof of vaccination to come into work. Wear a mask that fits. N95, KN95, or KF94. The N95 with the elastic that goes around the head is the gold standard for fit, comfort and safety. Buy some, rotate through them all week. Leaving a used mask for 3-4 days in a cool, dry place will kill all viruses on it. You won't need more than 25 for the year.

This is how you keep schools and workplaces open.

The family doctors I know advocate for air quality monitoring and rely on school asymptomatic testing of peers and adults to ensure their offspring is in a safe environment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

Yes. Agree with this 100%. Kids need to be in school.

Signed,
An RN and MD family who will be sending our kids to school and fine if they catch Covid.

Covid is not a health crisis for kids. Being out of school or in virtual school is.

Just chiming in to add that this doctor and scientist family disagrees strongly, mostly because all generalizations are untrue and the solution lies in the details.

If something can be done for school lunches, so that it's outside under a large tent (same for PE, band and choir), then people won't have to take masks off indoors, and all will be well. Schools need to require proof of vaccinations for everyone 12+ and require well-fitting masks, so that transmission is lowered and people who get sick are out for less time. Schools also need to require vaccinations for 5-11 as soon as the vaccines come out for that age group. Child-size KF94s work well for kids.

Same for workplaces. If you can eat lunch outdoors, do it. Bundle up in the winter. Otherwise eat away from everyone else, as much as you can. Require proof of vaccination to come into work. Wear a mask that fits. N95, KN95, or KF94. The N95 with the elastic that goes around the head is the gold standard for fit, comfort and safety. Buy some, rotate through them all week. Leaving a used mask for 3-4 days in a cool, dry place will kill all viruses on it. You won't need more than 25 for the year.

This is how you keep schools and workplaces open.

The family doctors I know advocate for air quality monitoring and rely on school asymptomatic testing of peers and adults to ensure their offspring is in a safe environment.

Same PP. I'm a bit baffled by this statement: "Eat away from everyone else, as much as you can."

[Anonymous]

I personally don't care that they don't seem to be doing asymptomatic surveillance testing. I don't think it's a good use of scarce resources and it hasn't shown to catch that many cases, plus it has the potential to do more harm than good. I'd rather have that money spent on tutoring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I personally don't care that they don't seem to be doing asymptomatic surveillance testing. I don't think it's a good use of scarce resources and it hasn't shown to catch that many cases, plus it has the potential to do more harm than good. I'd rather have that money spent on tutoring.

What harm does it cause?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

Yes. Agree with this 100%. Kids need to be in school.

Signed,
An RN and MD family who will be sending our kids to school and fine if they catch Covid.

Covid is not a health crisis for kids. Being out of school or in virtual school is.

Just chiming in to add that this doctor and scientist family disagrees strongly, mostly because all generalizations are untrue and the solution lies in the details.

If something can be done for school lunches, so that it's outside under a large tent (same for PE, band and choir), then people won't have to take masks off indoors, and all will be well. Schools need to require proof of vaccinations for everyone 12+ and require well-fitting masks, so that transmission is lowered and people who get sick are out for less time. Schools also need to require vaccinations for 5-11 as soon as the vaccines come out for that age group. Child-size KF94s work well for kids.

Same for workplaces. If you can eat lunch outdoors, do it. Bundle up in the winter. Otherwise eat away from everyone else, as much as you can. Require proof of vaccination to come into work. Wear a mask that fits. N95, KN95, or KF94. The N95 with the elastic that goes around the head is the gold standard for fit, comfort and safety. Buy some, rotate through them all week. Leaving a used mask for 3-4 days in a cool, dry place will kill all viruses on it. You won't need more than 25 for the year.

This is how you keep schools and workplaces open.

Given that mandatory vaccines for 12+, well-fitting masks, and tents won't happen, what will do you?

Also, are you referring to schools in your synopsis of workplaces? As in, do you think school workforce vaccinations should be mandatory?

Thank you for the lessons on the masks, though. I had been wondering how many N95s we'd need.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Given how contagious Delta is, I think many of us have resigned ourselves that our kids will probably get it at school despite mitigation measures. It’s a terrifying premise after essentially hiding out from the disease for over a year. But most of what I’m reading says that kids don’t get super sick. We didn’t live in a risk free world before Covid, and despite my anxiety disorder, I’m not going to insist on one now.

This is really it. I'd really love to avoid DC getting it before the child vaccine is approved, but at this point, it feels inevitable and I guess it's better for DC to develop some natural immunity before a worse variant comes along. So we'll keep wearing our masks and what will be, will be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I personally don't care that they don't seem to be doing asymptomatic surveillance testing. I don't think it's a good use of scarce resources and it hasn't shown to catch that many cases, plus it has the potential to do more harm than good. I'd rather have that money spent on tutoring.

Your kid isn’t going to get tutoring if they catch COVID…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Given how contagious Delta is, I think many of us have resigned ourselves that our kids will probably get it at school despite mitigation measures. It’s a terrifying premise after essentially hiding out from the disease for over a year. But most of what I’m reading says that kids don’t get super sick. We didn’t live in a risk free world before Covid, and despite my anxiety disorder, I’m not going to insist on one now.

This is really it. I'd really love to avoid DC getting it before the child vaccine is approved, but at this point, it feels inevitable and I guess it's better for DC to develop some natural immunity before a worse variant comes along. So we'll keep wearing our masks and what will be, will be.

As variant studies have shown us, your immunity only lasts for that particular strain. As soon as a new one comes along, you can get sick again. We knew this last year even before Delta came along.

Vaccines protect better than natural immunity, but they're still not completely protective.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I personally don't care that they don't seem to be doing asymptomatic surveillance testing. I don't think it's a good use of scarce resources and it hasn't shown to catch that many cases, plus it has the potential to do more harm than good. I'd rather have that money spent on tutoring.

Your kid isn’t going to get tutoring if they catch COVID…

No, I know. I meant the intense amount of tutoring that kids who have had learning losses this year need.

[Anonymous]

Ugh. I believe this modeling. We haven't heard anything from Deal about mitigation measures besides masking. So I think I need to assume that there is a 40% chance my kid will get covid in the first semester. In fact, maybe there is a greater than 40% chance, because by virtue of it being a very large middle school where grades all eat lunch together, and the kids are older and have higher viral loads, transmissibility is probably much greater than at the average school in the study. This is a damn shame b/c she will be fully vaccinated by the second semester, at which point I will gladly send her in person, and I know one more virtual semester will not hold her back. Balancing those risks, I'll gladly fill out a Friendship application.

But if I heard anything more from Deal about plans to do layered mitigation (as public health experts recommend), like cohort or outside lunch, I would accept the risk and send my kid in-person.

But it doesn't seem like parents are going to have a complete set of information before being forced to make these hard decisions. It is completely ridiculous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you trying to say? What do you mean about given up?

I think that there is a large group of people who feel that virtual school is worse than school+delta.

Giving up is assaying, there's no way to be safe from Delta so no school, ever, in person.

Yes. Agree with this 100%. Kids need to be in school.

Signed,
An RN and MD family who will be sending our kids to school and fine if they catch Covid.

Covid is not a health crisis for kids. Being out of school or in virtual school is.

Just chiming in to add that this doctor and scientist family disagrees strongly, mostly because all generalizations are untrue and the solution lies in the details.

If something can be done for school lunches, so that it's outside under a large tent (same for PE, band and choir), then people won't have to take masks off indoors, and all will be well. Schools need to require proof of vaccinations for everyone 12+ and require well-fitting masks, so that transmission is lowered and people who get sick are out for less time. Schools also need to require vaccinations for 5-11 as soon as the vaccines come out for that age group. Child-size KF94s work well for kids.

Same for workplaces. If you can eat lunch outdoors, do it. Bundle up in the winter. Otherwise eat away from everyone else, as much as you can. Require proof of vaccination to come into work. Wear a mask that fits. N95, KN95, or KF94. The N95 with the elastic that goes around the head is the gold standard for fit, comfort and safety. Buy some, rotate through them all week. Leaving a used mask for 3-4 days in a cool, dry place will kill all viruses on it. You won't need more than 25 for the year.

This is how you keep schools and workplaces open.

Given that mandatory vaccines for 12+, well-fitting masks, and tents won't happen, what will do you?

Also, are you referring to schools in your synopsis of workplaces? As in, do you think school workforce vaccinations should be mandatory?

Thank you for the lessons on the masks, though. I had been wondering how many N95s we'd need.

I don't know. Despite working in virology, it's hard for us to tell when the local risk becomes too much, and obviously, everyone has a different risk tolerance. Just like last year, I find it incredibly frustrating that we have the tools at our disposal, yet we focus our energy and funding elsewhere.

I want to note here that Delta spreads so quickly compared to past variants that doing random batch testing in schools and workplaces won't protect us nearly as well as doing what I've outlined above. Better air filtration is all very well, but for me that's already a given. We need to do more.

I want to set this in the right context: one where we are waiting for the next, even more transmissible and dangerous variant. We need to get into that mindset, and continually think of ways to make our schools and workplaces safer from airborne pathogens, because it will happen. It's only a matter of time. We are putting great evolutionary pressure on this virus, by partially protecting some populations, and we are sitting ducks for a supercharged variant.

So instead of staying home or being fatalistic about catching Covid (which won't help you stay safe from the next variant!), we need to brainstorm ways to modify our communal lives to mitigate ever-increasing risk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Swann’s research shows that even with universal masks, 40% of elementary students will be infected with Delta IN THREE MONTHS.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-31/what-the-delta-variant-development-means-for-unvaccinated-kids

What I am seeing in this forum is parents refusing to test with their kid has “just a cold,” refusing asymptomatic testing, lying about travel so they don’t have to quarantine, etc. There is no distancing, no plan to upgrade ventilation, no mandatory teacher vaccinations, etc.

Has DCPS just given up?

Teacher, I am sorry but you have to go back to work in person!

DP, but no need to be so rude.

I am a teacher who is fully expecting and ready to go back. What I’m not ready for is the DCPS clusterf that’s going to happen as soon as cases start popping up in schools. Are we going to be teaching concurrently? Going back and forth between IPL and virtual? I’m glad that all of these families believe that DCPS has implemented or is planning to implement all of these mitigation strategies, but they haven’t. Be prepared for things to get really weird for kids in the fall and when they do maybe don’t be so quick to blame the teachers.

I'm the PP that posted the long quote. I totally agree that September to December is going to be like a school wide chicken pox party. Everyone will get exposed and it will be a few months of constant positive tests and quarantines. But hopefully it will come on strong and die down quickly. I'm sorry DCPS hasn't prepared teachers more for contingency plans when classrooms quarantine, but this parent understands it's not your fault and I strongly believe that even with quarantines, 8 weeks of IPL and 2 weeks of nothing is better than 10 weeks of virtual. It will be a mess for parents who have been forced back in the office, but it is what it is.

Except COVID is not like the chicken pox

It is in the sense of the contagiousness of Delta is comparable to the chicken pox, where the previous variants were much less contagious. Hence the reference to pox parties. Put everyone in a room and let them get exposed at once to get it out of the way. And children die from chicken pox, just very very rarely, like with COVID.

Covid parties, school district-hosted covid parties, are unethical.

Did you call in person school before the chickenpox vaccine, which wasn’t approved until the 1990s, a chickenpox party?

I remember some serious mitigation measures at sleep away camp when a camper was diagnosed with chicken pox a couple of days into it in the mid-80ies. Those were not parties. They took it extremely seriously, but that was forty years ago. They didn't need to do 1917-type masking because it wasn't a deadly pandemic, but they didn't have access to the rapid tests and abundance of masks we have in 2021. There is no excuse for this.

This is not a "deadly pandemic" for the under 12s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I personally don't care that they don't seem to be doing asymptomatic surveillance testing. I don't think it's a good use of scarce resources and it hasn't shown to catch that many cases, plus it has the potential to do more harm than good. I'd rather have that money spent on tutoring.

What harm does it cause?

NP but if DCPS decides that an entire class has to quarantine because one student asymptomatically tests positive for covid, then that is harm to those other students.