Anyone who still thinks this is no big deal...
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
|
The only rate that is reliable is the mortality rate per inhabitants. All the other metrics are bogus because we DON'T KNOW how many people are actually affected.
I've generated the numbers -- (sources: Bing/covid, Realclearpolitics and Wikipedia (for the population of states). When one plots that number, the US is not even in the top 20 -- I've also added the data per state in the US -- Can't attach PDF. I use Rstudio but you can probably plot with any decent plotting program. And it is very clear that Italy is an anomaly -- who knows what's wrong with their health care system? here are the DATA -- and so NO, there is no Need to freak out -- be careful, sure! But freak out?? Nop. USA: State Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date Washington 83 10.90 1524 200.13 3/21/20 Vermont 2 3.21 29 46.48 3/21/20 Louisiana 14 3.01 537 115.51 3/21/20 New York 46 2.36 8403 431.95 3/21/20 DC 1 1.42 81 114.77 3/21/20 Georgia 14 1.32 485 45.68 3/21/20 New Jersey 11 1.24 890 100.20 3/21/20 South Dakota 1 1.13 14 15.83 3/21/20 Connecticut 4 1.12 194 54.41 3/21/20 Oregon 3 0.71 114 27.03 3/21/20 Colorado 4 0.69 363 63.03 3/21/20 Nevada 2 0.65 109 35.39 3/21/20 California 24 0.61 1249 31.61 3/21/20 South Carolina 3 0.58 125 24.28 3/21/20 Wisconsin 3 0.52 210 36.07 3/21/20 Florida 11 0.51 563 26.21 3/21/20 Missouri 3 0.49 66 10.75 3/21/20 Kentucky 2 0.45 64 14.33 3/21/20 Indiana 3 0.45 86 12.77 3/21/20 Illinois 5 0.39 585 46.17 3/21/20 Kansas 1 0.34 50 17.16 3/21/20 World: Country Deaths DeathPerMillions Cases CasesPerMilions Date Italy 4,032 66.70 47,021 778.10 3/21/20 Spain 1,093 23.40 21,571 461.70 3/21/20 Iran 1,556 19.00 20,610 252.00 3/21/20 Luxembourg 5 8.20 484 796.40 3/21/20 Switzerland 57 6.70 5,616 659.40 3/21/20 France 450 6.70 12,612 188.30 3/21/20 Curaçao 1 6.30 3 18.90 3/21/20 Netherlands 106 6.20 2,994 173.80 3/21/20 Belgium 37 3.20 2,257 197.60 3/21/20 Martinique 1 2.70 32 85.00 3/21/20 United Kingdom 177 2.70 3,983 59.90 3/21/20 Guadeloupe 1 2.50 51 128.90 3/21/20 China 3,255 2.30 81,008 58.20 3/21/20 South Korea 102 2.00 8,799 169.90 3/21/20 Denmark 9 1.60 1,255 216.50 3/21/20 Sweden 16 1.60 1,639 161.00 3/21/20 Norway 7 1.30 1,994 375.20 3/21/20 Guyana 1 1.30 15 19.20 3/21/20 Greece 10 0.90 495 46.10 3/21/20 Austria 7 0.80 2,690 304.10 3/21/20 Germany 68 0.80 19,910 240.10 3/21/20 United States 275 0.80 19,774 60.40 3/21/20 Mauritius 1 0.80 14 11.10 3/21/20 |
Anonymous
Thank you for this. But what about the rate of increase? Isn't that someting to look at as well? Could it be that Italy is harder hit simply because the virus has been circulating there longer? |
Anonymous
It's scary because it's poorly written panic porn. |
Anonymous
| We don't know the real rate because we don't know the denominator due to lack of adequate number of tests for symptomatic people and asymptomatic who are carriers The health systems do not have the capacity to handle an outbreak. What if you have an emergent situation that would generally lead to quick surgery and time spent recuperating in intensive care, but we don't have the beds and those surgeons are covering for doctors out with COVID-19? |
Anonymous
| Just checked out the live webcam on Bourbon street. It actually looks like more people are out and about today than they were last week when I checked. People on bikes and in cars. Some foot traffic. Everyone maintaining proper distances. |
Anonymous
| ^I should say earlier in the week when I last checked (not last week) |
Anonymous
Italy has been harder hit because it is always is harder hit by flu like viruses than pretty much anywhere else. For example, Italy had an estimated 54,000 flu deaths in the 2014-15 flu season, that’s more than IS, despite being a fraction of the size. |
Anonymous
Yes -- that would be a great information to have -- that is why I have a date column -- The issue is that the data is all over the place. Realclear politics does not store the date, Bing neither -- The CDC has the data so I could in principle download it from there. The number of case/recovered would be really useful to estimate the state/access to care by states -- The numbers by themselves are useless (because we dont know who is affected) but the ratio could be a neat proxy metric to measure how efficient are the different countries/states in treating the people who are counted. The caveat, of course, is that this needs to be compounded with the demographics of the country (for example Italy is skewing older --as does Germany --- than other European countries). I could do that (I am a data scientist...) just because I am fed up to look at bogus claims without backing on data or backing the claims on suspicious data -- but I also want to think about something else than how to destroy an economy (and the jobs of many) in 10 days... |
Anonymous
Sure gets those clicks, though. “According to the paper, among people aged 49 or younger, only about 0.2% of those who contracted the disease died.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html |
Anonymous
I just want to go to Target and buy Easter junk for my kid. I'm staying put as long as required, but I am losing my sh1t. And walks only help when you're walking. |
Anonymous
Go first thing in the morning or end of day. Avoid elderly family members for now. Everything will be OK. |
Anonymous
Ok, let’s say this is true. Experts think 40 to 80% of the population will get this because no one has immunity. There are about 200 million people in the US under age 50. If you take the lowest end of that — 40% — and take 0.2% of it, it’s still 160,000 deaths of young people in the US. Seasonal flu usually kills about 8,000 non-elderly people. There is no way this shakes out that is not a big deal. Anyone who says it’s not a big deal is in denial. |
Anonymous
How do people not understand that not knowing the real denominator implies a GOOD thing because it means the percentages of seriously ill people are almost certainly far far lower than what the media is reporting? |
Anonymous
NP. https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients |
Anonymous
Some (Russia) are falsely categorizing these deaths as pneumonia. It looks very much like pneumonia. But worse. |