Will Montgomery County ever recover?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

You've already lost if you treat your own housing more like the stock market than a roof over your head. If you have a nice house that you live in and enjoy and it is close to work and the house has at least held its value relative to inflation, then what are you complaining about? No one can easily predict which housing markets will actually exponentially increase over 20 - 30 years. Housing should be viewed as a place to live.

Exactly. What a weirdo.

[Anonymous]

awwww so sad for you you couldn't predict that white ppl would do whatever necessary to live in white enclaves

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Let me try that game. I bought on Chevy Chase on the 90s for 300k. Now worth close to 1.4m. If I bought a house in Woodbridge or Springfield, would I have done better in total equity increase? Nope.

You are comparing Chevy Chase v.s. Woodbridge? LOL By doing this comparison no doubt MO is going down on a freefall.

Total equity increase is a dumb way to compare. You had a lot more skin in the game than if you bought a single home in springfield back then, which probably was in the 100's. I bet percentagewise you'd have done at least as well buying in Springfield. Don't know much about Woodbridge, but that's a lot farther away so not really reasonable to compare, but Springfield is on metro, near the beltway, has some good schools; it's definitely appreciated a great deal since the early 90's.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm only posting because I remember a coworker commenting on when she and her husband moved to the DMV in the late 1980s they first lived in Arlington and were planning on buying in Arlington but decided at the last minute to buy in Silver Spring instead as it had better metro link and was a bit closer to his office. She said it was the biggest mistake they ever made from a financial perspective because the kind of housing they'd have been able to buy in Arlington at the time are now worth well over a million while the house they ended up buying in Silver Spring is probably only worth around 650.

B.S.

Eh... I have a similar story, although not MC, but the "good part" of PG. My parents saved their pennies to buy their first house back in 1991. They had a choice of buying in Maryland or VA. Houses in the Tysons area were about 350k, versus about 280k in Bowie. They bought in Bowie. This is the neighborhood they bought in:

https://bit.

And this is the area near Tysons that they could have bought in:

https://bit.ly/2X3EdsX

I'll leave it up to you to see which one was a better choice.

So you are comparing buying in Bowie 30 years ago to Tysons?

Let me try that game. I bought on Chevy Chase on the 90s for 300k. Now worth close to 1.4m. If I bought a house in Woodbridge or Springfield, would I have done better in total equity increase? Nope.

Touche. I was off-topic, as Bowie is not in MC. Sorry I raised that example. Carry on.

[Anonymous]

The one upmanship in this thread is beyond ridiculous.

[Anonymous]

Back to OP's original question. The same principles that apply to developing vs. developed economies apply here. More mature housing markets, while still holding their value and appreciating over the years, will nevertheless appreciate more slowly than less mature housing markets that are experiencing a boom for whatever reason.

In the case of Falls Church, and particularly the areas bordering on Mclean (i.e., Pimmit Hills and the like), I think it has long been overlooked in terms of its proximity to Tysons and ease of access to the Dulles corridor, both of which have an abundant number of employers. I've been driving through these neighborhoods more recently and am astounded by the level of development. The single story ramblers are being torn down and replaced with brand new modern craftsmen homes everywhere you look. Of course, the schools have some catching up to do, but it's not like they're 4's on the GS ratings. Solid 7's across the board depending on exactly where you're looking. I would think it will only get better as more money and tax dollars flood in.

As with everything in life, you have to find the balance that works for your family. If that's trading a 9 or 10 public school in well-established MOCO for a 7 public school with a brand new house that's $200k cheaper, well, that's a decision we all have to make to live in the pricy DC suburbs.

[Anonymous]

MoCo needs to make it easier for businesses to reside there. Businesses need to see how easy it is for them to reside in PG. Companies arent sharing the wealth and until they do you will have these "hot pockets" of real estate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Not likely. School situation seems to be going down and Amazon is there to stay. Those who are stuck in MoCo will stay for a while till kids will be done and they probably move to Fairfax. New people take a very careful look where to settle and they are not choosing MoCo that is for sure.
If you watch some areas of MoCo for a while you would see easily that more and more homes come up on the market more then ever before.
Why? Why so many more people would be putting homes for sale and why homes sit longer? Do you know why?

[Anonymous]

Take just one factor - Thomas Jefferson. There are mountains of people who move from MoCo Fairfax just to be able to apply there. They have smart kids and the whole school is serving the best of the best in Fairfax. The dedicated school with all classes and the program tailored to their needs. MoCo could do the same but never will. Why? No idea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Take just one factor - Thomas Jefferson. There are mountains of people who move from MoCo Fairfax just to be able to apply there. They have smart kids and the whole school is serving the best of the best in Fairfax. The dedicated school with all classes and the program tailored to their needs. MoCo could do the same but never will. Why? No idea.

Fairfax = TJ
MoCo = Blair, RM, Poolesville

MoCo has their own test-in magnet programs with top-notch resources to support the top highest achieving kids of MoCo. Did you know that? They don't need to copy TJ. These 3 schools do amazing on their own, even with the non-magnet population. It's also an accurate statement to say that that there are mountains of people who come to MoCo with the hopes of getting accepted into these programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No. I was born in DC, but grew up in moco. It’s been in decline for at least 20 years. Md is very pro poor people and con business. It’s not sustainable.

+1

High taxes with a shrinking tax base to pay it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Not likely. School situation seems to be going down and Amazon is there to stay. Those who are stuck in MoCo will stay for a while till kids will be done and they probably move to Fairfax. New people take a very careful look where to settle and they are not choosing MoCo that is for sure.
If you watch some areas of MoCo for a while you would see easily that more and more homes come up on the market more then ever before.
Why? Why so many more people would be putting homes for sale and why homes sit longer? Do you know why?

Are you saying people will stay in MoCo until their kids are done with school?

And then go to FFX? If you don’t need schools, why on earth would you move to FFX?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Not likely. School situation seems to be going down and Amazon is there to stay. Those who are stuck in MoCo will stay for a while till kids will be done and they probably move to Fairfax. New people take a very careful look where to settle and they are not choosing MoCo that is for sure.
If you watch some areas of MoCo for a while you would see easily that more and more homes come up on the market more then ever before.
Why? Why so many more people would be putting homes for sale and why homes sit longer? Do you know why?

I disagree. Amazon will definitely impact NoVa much, much more. It already has. But, not all newcomers have money for 600K to 1.5M places. That overflow will benefit even MoCo. Probably not the most expensive houses, but cheaper houses in MoCo will benefit. It might be years though. It will trickle down, very, very slowly though. And no matter how much NoVa pps like to tear town MCPS, it is still has more HS that shadow almost all HS in NoVa, save TJ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
DP but did you see the title and premise of this thread? It is about Montgomery County vs NoVa (as usual ), not PG, Howard or Anne Arundel.
Racism is not unique to VA but VA is a hotbed for racism...starting from the top.

All those links are from Montgomery County.

As an aside, I was also pointing out that it's kind of dumb to compare a single wealthy county in Maryland to ALL of Northern Virginia, but sure whatever floats your boat. Plenty of racism in actual MoCo.

Sigh!
You said "why don't they add Anne Arundel and PG " and I was pointing out that the premise of the thread is MoCo, as Virginians always do.
Maybe you should tell your fellow Virginians to stop comparing the whole NoVa to one county in MD.
Yes, there is racism in MoCo but VA is the hotbed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Take just one factor - Thomas Jefferson. There are mountains of people who move from MoCo Fairfax just to be able to apply there. They have smart kids and the whole school is serving the best of the best in Fairfax. The dedicated school with all classes and the program tailored to their needs. MoCo could do the same but never will. Why? No idea.

You cannot be that clueless, can you?
The best of Fairfax, in fact the whole NoVa, cannot lit a candle to the best of MoCo.